With the MLB Winter Meetings taking place this week, there is potential for a significant amount of player movement as GMs, players, and agents all converge at the Indiana Convention Center in downtown Indianapolis. And while guys like myself, Aaron Gleeman and Buster Olney are on high alert, waiting for any scrap of breaking news, you folks that are in fantasy baseball keeper leagues should be too. It’s time to start gearing up for your 2010 season, and what’s more important than deciding on which players you should keep and which ones you should let go? The Winter Meetings may produce some trades and/or signings that will likely influence your decision-making process, but it’s never too early to start making preparations. Success in a fantasy baseball keeper league takes a lot of work, so it’s best to get the ball rolling now…
I’ve decided to do this piece in three parts; one because with the importance of keeping the right players, there’s plenty of information on which to weigh such as differentiating between who are the real keepers and who just looks like one right now, and two, because I can stall a little until the Winter Meetings close and more free agents sign with new teams. Every little bit of information counts, so the more I can offer, the better the end results. We’ll get to my Top Fantasy Baseball Keepers 2010 soon enough, but for today…for the first part, we’re going to answer one very important question…
Will the biggest 2009 fantasy baseball busts rebound and be worth keeping in 2010?
Let’s face it, out of all the things that can wrong in a fantasy baseball season, there’s nothing worse than losing a guy you either took in one of the first few rounds or on whom you blew a substantial wad of fantasy baseball auction dollars. It doesn’t matter if it’s a fluke injury or just a huge regression in productivity; it still sucks and can, most of the time, cost you a championship. Getting 26th round production for your 2nd round pick is one of the hardest things to overcome. It’s fixable, but the process is extremely difficult, somewhat risky, and requires more research than you’ve probably ever done for a fantasy baseball league.
But with the 2009 season a thing of the distant past (get over it…champions and chumps…it’s done), it’s time to look ahead and figure out what to do with some of these guys. Does it pay for you to keep them another year or should they be released back into the player pool? Will they bounce back or should they just be bounced from your team? So let’s have a look at them, do a little fantasy baseball analysis, and see what we can expect from these guys in the 2010 fantasy baseball season…
David Wright, 3B NYM — Let’s start with 2009’s most enigmatic bust. Some folks are blaming the dimensions of the new ballpark and some are blaming the Met’s injuries and a lack of protection in the lineup. I’m going with a slight combination, but with a lean towards the ballpark side. If you look at Wright’s splits over the last 4 or 5 years, you’ll see that April and May, months he still had Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado in the lineup in ‘09, were solid months of producton for him. It’s not like he has been a notoriously slow starter like, say, Mark Teixeira. So while the injuries to his teammates may not have allowed him to heat up as much down the road, there was really no sign that he was ever going to heat up at all. His splits in 2008 showed more power at home than on the road, and while his splits before that were a more even distribution, you could tell that, while he was maturing as a hitter, he was also adjusting his his swing to hitting 82 games at Shea Stadium. I think he’ll always remain a .300 hitter, but we may not see a return to the 30 HR power anymore. I don’t think it’ll stay at 10, but don’t expect the usual totals in 2010 until he makes more adjustments to his park.
Jose Reyes, SS NYM — Might as well just finish the mutts from New York here and go with, probably, the biggest bust of 2009. Fantasy baseball cheatsheets had Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez as the top 2 overall picks and Reyes was just behind them in most cases. But a torn hamstring for a guy who makes his living off his legs is about as bad as you can get. The injury kept him out of almost all of 2009 and October surgery to remove scar tissue around that same tendon put him on crutches until late November. He’s off them now and on a running program, but it makes me very nervous as a fantasy owner. Reyes could be a great bounce back candidate and will likely go lower in fantasy baseball drafts (or for less money in fantasy baseball auctions) so if he drops enough, he may be worth it depending on his spring. All signs point towards him coming back in time for Spring Training to start, so it’s tough to drop him in keeper leagues. Real tough. If it were me, I’d hype the thinness at shortstop and see about dealing him for another speedster.
Carlos Beltran, OF NYM – Knee troubles and a deep bone bruise kept Beltran out of the lineup from late June through early September costing fantasy owners serious production considering how he normally heats up in the summer. What’s worse is that while his power had a slight dropoff in the early part of the year (hmmmm….are you getting it now David Wright owners?) he was raking the ball to the tune of a .336 batting average. If he stays with the Mets, you can probably expect the power decline, but he should still be a solid choice in 2010. If he goes elsewhere….of course, we’re hearing more Boston rumors…then his value should go back to where it was when he was hanging at Club 20-20.
Grady Sizemore, OF CLE — So now we can talk about someone whose fantasy baseball value was killed just by injuries and not a ballpark. Sizemore had been dealing with elbow problems all year long and tried to battle through them giving, what I thought, was false hope to his fantasy owners. Playing through an injury like that is just way too dangerous and finally, the club wised up and shut him down in early September. He had surgery to fix the elbow and then a week later had another surgery to repair a sports hernia, another issue he had all year. With a full offseason of light workouts and rehab, Sizemore should be fine to draft in 2010. Keep with confidence. I don’t know if he’ll drop too far in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, so if he does get dropped by someone else, don’t wait on him too long.
Josh Hamilton, OF TEX — All right keeper leaguers. I warned you about Hamilton last year, saying that he could be the prime candidate for the One Year Wonder Award. Every fantasy baseball magazine and every fantasy baseball guide had him listed amongst the top outfielders for 2009 and he put up stinker numbers in return. Hamilton, who had been plagued by injuries his entire career, was finally shut down in September with his back ailments. He missed all of June as well and failed to live up to the hype….a chronic (no pun intended….or maybe it was) issue with him. There were also reports that surfaced of him drinking again, so if you ask me, he’s back on the downward spiral. I don’t care what he said at the Home Run Derby about God and love, and all that stuff; if you own him in a keeper league, start the trade process now.
B.J. Upton, OF TB – What the heck happened here?!? 2007 was a monster year, 2008 saw more stolen bases and a drop in power attributed to a shoulder issue and then 2009 was….what? Dog poop! But since he did steal 42 bases, we’ll say it’s the poop of a small breed like a Dachsund, not the big steaming pile that a Great Dane leaves you. Upton started the year ice cold, had one good month in June and then went right back into the freezer. His timely resurgence allowed his owners to trade him away for probably more than he was worth, but still a huge disappointment. His attitude was also a problem, something that Joe Maddon won’t ever take, and was bumped to the bottom of the lineup. No clue if he’ll right that ship, but at 25, I still think the best is yet to come. The SBs are a great excuse to keep him, and I think, with a little added maturity, the rest will follow.
Carlos Quentin, OF CHW – Quentin’s breakout 2008 was finished with a broken wrist and 2009 was ruined by plantar fasciitis in his left foot. Good thing for you that people will focus so strongly on his injuries. He still knocked out 21 HR last year even after missing most of the summer, so I’m expecting a big rebound in 2010. I’m a huge fan of this kid and love the way he swings the bat. If he can stay healthy, then you’re looking at some rock solid power numbers. So long as it doesn’t cost you an arm and a leg, then I think he’ll make for a fine keeper in 2010.
Corey Hart, OF MIL – Overrated is the word that comes to mind when someone mentions this guy’s name to me. He had a great season back in 2007 when he hit .295 and entered Club 20-20 for the first time, and in ‘08 he maintained his club membership (barely) but only hit .268 for the year. So was it a big surprise to see him hit .260 last season while losing most of his power and speed? Nope. Not to me. And you can’t blame injuries because he was stinkin’ up the joint way before the finger fractures in September shut him down. He may be a decent option in the middle to late rounds of your fantasy baseball draft, but he’s definitely not keeper material.
Geovany Soto, C CHC — Sophomore slump with a splash of injuries, plain and simple. It was a tough year for the second year backstop who roared to the top of the fantasy baseball rankings for catchers after hitting .285 with 23 HR in his first season. But as we all know, the wear and tear on a major league catcher is tremedous, so couple that with the pressures of living up to the hype of winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2008 and it’s a near certain recipe for disaster. Do I think he’ll rebound? Definitely. But with the number of backstops hitting 15 or more home runs thesese days (11 last year), it would be hard for me to protect him in relation to how cheap I can probably get a guy like Rod Barajas or Miguel Montero next year.
Russell Martin, C LAD — Baseball fantasy circles, and yes, even I, had Martin at the top of catcher rankings in 2009. Joe Mauer’s power had dwindles and suddenly it was the hype of a power/speed combo behind the plate as he nearly hit the 20-20 mark in his rookie campaign. But alas, the numbers dwindled in his sophomore season and then dipped even further last year. The dream may not entirely be over, but for now it looks like we’ve all woken up. Martin is no longer an option for protecting. He’ll still get you double digit steals, but will they be that important?
David Ortiz, DH BOS — Oh how the mighty have fallen. Between the steroids, the HGH, the broken wrist, all of it, Ortiz has become a shell of the “player” he once was. The start of the ‘09 season was atrocious, and while he knocked 21 HR between June and August, he started to drop off again come the close of September and all but disappeared in the playoffs. Now I know playoff numbers don’t count but take it as a sign. My fantasy baseball projections, (which will be out soon) have Big Papi listed as “average” at best.
Lance Berkman, 1B HOU – Berkman’s totals last year were eerily similar to those from 2005, only don’t expect another boom the following year like his 2006 stats. In fact, like I said last year, Berkman’s career is on the downside and his power numbers won’t get back to the old days of 35 to 40 HR. In fact, if you look, his power numbers have steadily decreased in each of the last 3 seasons. His BA is maintaining that “every other year” theory, but if the power continues to drop, then he’s an average first baseman, at best. If you own him in a keeper league, try shopping him with the 2005 to 2006 comparison and see if you get any takers. If not, then I’d let him go and look elsewhere for more stick.
Kelly Johnson, 2B ATL – OK, so not your prototypical keeper, but after guys like Chase Utley, Brandon Phillips and Ian Kinsler, Johnson was rated high enough in fantasy baseball magazines that numerous owners kept him from 2008 to 2009, despite the dropoff in production from his rookie year in ‘07. Obviously if I’m talking about him here then you know the results, but to make it even worse, this guy lost his job to Martin Prado. Who? Exactly. The dropoff should have been warning enough, but if it wasn’t, then you should have looked at his minor league totals and saw that he was playing over his head that first year. Now way this guy even rebounds to become keeper material in 2011.
Brandon Webb, SP ARI — For me, it was just a matter of time before throwing 5 consecutive seasons of 200+ innings was going to catch up to a pitcher. The good news is that his shoulder surgery that kept him out all year had nothign to do with his rotator cuff, but the bad news is….well, he’s got shoulder concerns. He’s going to have to work real hard this spring to show no lingering affects, but it still concerns me. I, for one, have never been a fan of protecting starting pitching, so to take the risk and hold onto Webb might be a bit much for me. Shop him around and see if there are any takers, but as I’ve always said, starting pitching is plentiful and you don’t need to have an “ace” on your staff to win your league. Especially an ace coming off surgery and a full season away from the game.
Cole Hamels, SP PHI — Again, I don’t like keeping starting pitching, and another concern is Hamels and the off year he had in 2009. His K’s were down, his rattios were up and his innings were down which indicates getting tired more quickly in games. He’s still going to be a top 25 pitcher going into the season, but whether or not you think it’s reason enough to keep him, well, that’s up to you. You might have to weigh the cost it would take versus how many SPs you think everyone else in the league will hold, but again….plenty of fish in the sea.
Jake Peavy, SP CHW — Lost for most of the year with injuries, Peavy is yet another example of why you shouldn’t waste such high draft picks on pitchers. As for his 2010 outlook, well, that, to me, may not be so good. The trade to the White Sox looked good for him in his September comeback, but with a full offseason for AL teams to prepare for him, plus the switch from pitcher-friendly Petco to hitter’s haven U.S. Cellular, has me thinking that I would leave him alone. Again, if you can find a taker in your keeper league that feels otherwise, then, by all means, make a deal for yourself.
Brad Lidge, RP PHI — I’ve been around and around with this guy and even drank the Kool-Aid and bought low on him last year. What a mistake. Lidge is back to his old ways again, reminiscent of his days in ‘07 when the Astros finally gave up on him. The perfect season in 2008 is a thing of the past and Lidge is just too inconsistent and too much of a head case to be trusted anymore. There will be plenty of other fantasy baseball closers available in your fantasy baseball draft, so why keep one that will kill you all year?
Come back for the next installment as we talk about those guys in 2009 that put up monster fantasy baseball stats from out of nowhere. Are they the real deal? Can they repeat? Should you keep them? I’ll answer those questions and more very, very soon.
There’s plenty of free fantasy baseball advice and fantasy baseball tips to be had out there. We’re all going to have our fantasy baseball updates, fantasy baseball analysis and our fantasy baseball player rankings. But stick with Rotobuzz.com and our 2010 fantasy baseball strategy and we’ll all be seeing each other in the money next year!
Looking for Part II of the Keeper League Advice? Just click here!
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