As we wrap up the 2010 MLB Winter Meetings, along with the aftershocks, it’s time to get back to your draft prep work for the 2010 fantasy baseball season. With fantasy football coming to a close soon, your competition will undoubtedly start to turn their heads towards the baseball fantasy world and begin the work that you have already completed. So to keep that edge, while they’re still figuring out who’s playing for which team and what fantasy ramifications each move may have had, it’s time to talk about the next installment of my fantasy baseball keeper league advice.
One thing that I should have emphasized in Part I of my Keeper League Advice article, is that I’m not here to talk about the no-brainers. You can pick up any fantasy baseball magazine or check out some free fantasy baseball site and see that guys like Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez are players you should be keeping each year. In fact, if you’re in a keeper league, you probably ignore, depending on the size of your league, the top 50 fantasy baseball players heading into the season anyway because they’re always protected.
No, I’m here today to talk about the borderline guys; the guys you likely got for cheap last year and watched them have such outstanding seasons (or half-seasons in some cases) that you’re thinking about holding onto them for next year. I’m talking about the 2009 fantasy breakouts that you’re wondering “do they have what it takes to do it again?“ And I’m talking about some of the mid/late season callups that made fantasy owners sit up and take notice. Who are these guys? Who’s going to repeat and who’s going to regress? Who’s worthy of a keeper slot and who needs to go back into the pool? Plenty of these questions…and the answers…are here.
Now before I start the list, let me say that one of the main factors when deciding keepers outside of the “no-brainer” category, is cost. In my primary fantasy baseball keeper league, the protect system works a little differently than some. In standard snake style draft keeper leagues, you forfeit your pick in the round in which you took the player you are holding over, i.e. you started a keeper league last year and you took Pujols with your number one pick; keep Pujols, lose your first round draft choice in year two. In most auction draft keeper leagues, there is usually a salary increase for each player from year to year. In mine (25 man starting rosters — 2 at each position, 6 OF, 9 pitchers), you can protect up to 9 guys with the first being free, the second costing $10, the third $15, the fourth $20, the fifth $25, and so on. It’s a $260 salary cap on draft day and protecting 9 players would cost you $220 leaving you just $40 for the remaining 16 roster spots. Tough amount to deal with, especially when it’s a blind bid auction.
But the point I’m making is that it’s a value thing. How much is it going to cost me to keep this guy and is it worth it? Will I be able to get him in the draft for similar money? Less money? Will he produce similar or better totals than the year before? How sure am I about him? These are the questions that should be rolling over in your mind as you prepare to make your keeper decisions. And for me, the more indecisive you are, the less likely you should be keeping this guy. Here’s a list of some of those question mark guys you might have, along with my two cents…
Miguel Montero, C ARI – I must say, that I’ve always been a big fan of this kid. I threw a buck on him in my blind bid auction back in 2007 and hoped that he would blossom into the everyday catcher for the Diamondbacks. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen then, but the young Venezuelan lefty seems to have made great strides in his game as of late. In 425 AB last year, he popped 16 HR and hit .294 for the seasaon while being praised for his defense and handling of Arizona’s pitching staff. He walks into 2010 with the starting job and the soon-to-be 27 year old should hang onto the gig all year. He struggled to keep his average up over the last few years but I think 2009 was a turning point for him. While most of his power comes vesrus right handed pitching, he hit .329 against lefties while increasing his slugging percentage and OPS. If you’re short on keepers and have him for a buck, then he might be worth a shot.
Matt Wieters, C BAL – After struggling at the plate upon his May call-up and making adjustments throughout the month of June, everyone’s favorite 2009 fantasy baseball prospect really turned it on, hitting .323 in July. The power wasn’t quite there yet and you could tell he was pressing in August, but it all finally clicked for him in September when he hit .362 with 3 HR and 14 RBI. Listen, everyone’s been raving about this kid’s bat, much the way they raved about Joe Mauer. The catcher’s position is tough enough to learn in the bigs without all the hype and pressure of being a top prospect, so, like Mauer, expect it to take a couple of years before all pistons are firing together. People will overpay for him in the draft and likely let him go if he doesn’t produce upper echelon numbers so you might be able to get him back in 2011 if you let him go. I just feel like with the number of catchers out there that are plugging 15+ HR (11 last year), you might be better served going cheap behind the plate and bulking up elsewhere.
Billy Butler, 1B/DH KC – I can’t quite put my finger on why I’m skeptical about this guy, I don’t want to affect your decisions based on just some feeling when the numbers are telling a much different story. Everyone had raved about this kid’s power potential back in ‘07, and last year (the ol’ 3rd season) he finally put it together. He may have only knocked 21 HR, but, save for a dip to .280 in June and 13 useless ABs in October, Butler’s average kept getting better as the year progressed. He hit .330 versus lefties and .289 versus righties and popped 51 doubles which usually translates into more power down the road. I’ve never been on his bandwagon, but with the progress he has shown and the fact that he’s only 23, who am I to steer you away from him…if you have him cheap?
Kendry Morales, 1B LAA – Sad to say that I missed out on this guy last season, but not for a lack of trying. I was outbid for him in both of my blind bid auctions, and only by a few bucks in each. What an impact this guy made last year as the Angels finally gave him the starting nod! .306-34-108? Beeeee-yoooo-teeee-ful!! The hype was always there back when he first defected from Cuba, but always seemed to have some veteran that Mike Scioscia preferred, ahead of him. Mark Teixeira I can understand, but Casey Kotchman? Yeesh! Well, better late than never, and the kid’s only 26 years old. I see plenty more to come from him and if you drafted him last year, you probably have him for cheap. Definite keeper material, in my opinion.
Aaron Hill, 2B TOR – The AL Comeback Player of the Year sure did hit his stride in 2009. After missing most of the previous season with a concussion, Hill posted a ridiculous batting line in ‘09 of .286-36-108 while chipping in 103 runs scored and half a dozen SBs. It was a huge breakout season. I have no doubt that this guy will be in the top 3 amongst second basemen in all the magazine’s 2010 fantasy baseball rankings. Fantasy baseball websites too, as CBS Sportsline already has him projected to repeat those power totals. But what are we really seeing here? Are we seeing a true fantasy baseball stud or just a guy who busted out at the ripe ol’ age of 27, an age where most fantasy breakouts occur? His previous career high was 17 back in 2007 and he’s never shown this type of power before; not even in the minors. If I owned him right now I’d be trading him as his value will never be higher. I think we’ve seen his ceiling, and as nice as it would be to have a second basemen doing that for you again, I think you’re going to be disappointed with Hill’s totals in 2010.
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF TB – Another big breakout from last year, Zobrist started the season on the bench but, due to injuries, was granted a starting job and easily ran away with it. He hit .297 with 27 HR and 91 RBI while kicking in 17 SBs and those are definitely top 5 fantasy baseball stats for a second baseman. Not to mention the multi-position eligiblity between second, short and the outfield. But like Hill, Zobrist has never exhibited that level of talent before and he’s got a number of red flags, in my book. First off, he’s been a career minor leaguer who has had a decent batting average but mediocre pop and is not really a base-stealer. His first year numbers were way over his normal totals and it’s very tough to maintain such levels after being a 28 year old ”rookie”. Second, the Rays were going nuts last year with the swipes , and that’s pretty indicative based on the team stats. So it was only natural for Zobrist to increase that total as well. But his success rate was barely average (35.3%) and his opportunities dwindled in the second half. The trade of Akinori Iwamura maitains his starting status at second, but another red flag is his average and production as an infielder vesus his production levels as an outfielder. His power splits based on position are fairly even, but he only hit .261 as a second baseman. I think we’ll definitely see a drop-off in overall production, but not so significant that if you have him for single digit dollars, you might want to give him a go again.
Chris Coghlan, 2B/OF FLA – Ah, the old NL Rookie of the Year winner. 500+ ABs with a .321 average and minmal pop. Rumors of Dan Uggla being traded continue, which could put Coghlan at second for the Marlins in 2010, so his dual position eligibility makes him a little more attractive. But are we talking keeper material? I don’t really think so. In fact, why not check out my recent article, entitled “Do MLB Rookie of the Year Awards Over-Inflate Fantasy Value?” and see for yourself.
Alexei Ramirez, SS CHW – Here’s a guy who I’ve actually received numerous emails about. Ramirez’ rookie campaign was fantastic as he hit .290 with 21 HR and stole 13 bases in just 480 at bats. Unfortunately, he appeared to have taken a step back last season when he only finished with 15 HR and a .277 average. So what should we do with him? Well, first off, I’m going to say to take the chance and hold onto him, especially with the thinness at the shortstop position. While his power numbers and average declined, I did some some improvements that may lead to a 3rd season breakout. First off, he spent the majority of his time in the beginning of the season hitting in the 8th spot of the order where he hit only .241 with 3 HR. During his surge in June he was bumped up to the 2 hole where he hit .281. With the trade of Chris Getz and the addition of Juan Pierre, Ramirez would fit perfectly back in the 2 spot. Second, he improved on his SB% which went from 59.1% in 2008 to 73.7% in ‘09. That would be quite the tandem of table setters for the rest of the White Sox lineup. And finally, he did improve his OBP from .317 to .333 over the course of the year. I think, with everything there, Ramirez could be primed for a big breakout season as he puts it all together in 2010.
Jason Bartlett, SS TB – Another question mark here at a thin position. Bartlett has shown great progress from his days as a Minnesota Twins utility guy to the starting shortstop for the Rays. His batting average has steadily climbed over the last 3 seasons and improved to a career high .389 OBP in 2009. He also hit a career high 14 HR too. So do I think he’s going to continue the upswing, or has he peaked? I’m sure that most who own him will think he’s still on the rise, but reality will soon take over and I think we’ll see a regression in those power numbers. Now he’s always been reliable for a solid batting average and he’s got the speed to steal 20 bases minimum a year. So with the levels of talent at shortstop, you have to consider him if you have him for cheap. I see him more in the Brian Roberts mold than that of a power guy, so while you won’t be able to count on him for HR or RBI, a solid average, quality SB totals and some good runs scored seem to be attainable.
Gordon Beckham, SS CHW – His 2009 stats weren’t quite good enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, but he certainly produced well enough to merit the 2009 pre-season hype. Beckham has been a highly touted prospect and his rapid ascension through the system made folks take notice. With the White Sox’ acquisition of Mark Teahen and the aforementioned trade of Chris Getz, the Sox will shift Beckham over to second making him a little more appealing to those who think the budding start will break out sooner than later. He’s got 20 HR potenital, can swipe a few bases here and there, and fits, in my opinion in the Dan Uggla mode: good power potential, less than spectacular batting average. But while second base is a traditionally thin position, you should take notice of the fact that 10 second basemen hit 20 or more home runs last year and 4 more had 15+. If the hype is going to cost you, I say let someone else pay.
Elvis Andrus, SS TEX – Some more 2009 fantasy baseball rookie hype. Andrus was labeled as being so good that the Rangers moved All Star Michael Young over to third base just to make room. What’s more is that Texas brought in Omar Vizquel just to tutor the kid in the art of baseball. Well, the results were mixed. Andrus’ defense was solid, but his stick needed a little work. Mind you, I was surprised that he actually hit 6 HR, but it is Arlington, right? And it wasn’t the SBs I was disappointed in, as he tallied 33 swipes from the bottom end of the order. Nope, the disappointment was in the batting average (.267) and OBP (.328). Andrus could be a burner at the top of the order, but so long as his average remains low, he’s going to stay at the bottom of the lineup. As for keeping him, well, it depends on how desperate you are for speed. I see him eventually churning out 50+ SB seasons; I just don’t know if next year is going to be one of them.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B SF – A real interesting case here. If you are fortunate to be in a league that let’s you keep a player from year to year at the same position he was originally drafted, then you’re happy to be holding onto a catcher like Sandoval who can hit for a .300+ average with 25 HR and 90 RBI. If not, and you have to keep him at third then you’ve only got a better-than-average third baseman with lots of potential. But even so, I’d keep my eye on him if the price is right. However, the real issue at hand with Sandoval is whether or not the Giants step up and put some solid bats in the lineup around him. If they don’t, then Kung Fu Panda will be pitched around on a regular basis and we won’t get to see the power display we hoped for when protecting him.
Mark Reynolds, 3B ARI – OK, so what to do with Captain Strikeout? For me, you have to treat him like a poor man’s Adam Dunn. I don’t see him plugging 40+ dingers a year, but even if he settles down in the low 30’s, that’s great for third base, unless, of course, you’re penalized for strikeouts. If you do get penalized, then the K’s and the low batting average might be undoing all the good you’re getting in HR and RBI, thus making him a questionable keeper. However, if you can handle the Ks and you can offset the average, and it doesn’t cost you an arm and a leg, then he definitely warrants consideration. After all, he doesn’t even turn 27 until August.
Casey McGehee, 2B/3B MIL — 16 HR with 66 RBI and a .301 average in only 355 at bats is enough to get anyone excited, especially with eligibility at second and third. But before you put that keeper stamp on McGehee, you better be sure he’s A. capable of producing the equivalent over a full season and B. that he’s even going to keep his job all year. Personally, I have my doubts about both. First off, he’s never shown that kind of power display on any level. The most HR he’s ever hit is 11 in Triple-A back in 2007. And second of all, we all know that Mat Gamel has been tabbed the Brewers third baseman of the future. If the decision was made today, then McGehee would have the starting job, but alas, Ken Macha has through the end of March to make the final decision and I’m sure the organization is going to give Gamel every chance to take over.
Ian Stewart, 3B/OF COL – So we know the power’s there. Stewart popped 25 HR last season in just 425 at bats and he’s shown the ability throughout his minor league tenure as well. We also know the position eligibility is there — 121 games at third with 21 games at second. Now all we need to do is get that batting average up and make sure Garrett Atkins leaves town. Stewart’s got a .293 career minor league average so we know the potential is there but he’s never had an major league average above .259. It’s a bit disconcerting to me. Chances are, though, that you paid a decent price fo rhim last year, what with all the hype, so if that’s the case, then you might want to just let him go and try re-drafting.
Adam Lind, OF/DH TOR – After a couple of seasons of just not getting it doen, Lind had an amazing breakout last season. With a batting line of .305-35-114, Lind vaulted himself into one of the upper tiers for outfielders. I think he’s capable of banging 30 HR each year, and as long as he keeps his average up, I don’t see how you can let him go. Especially because you probably got him for a decent bargain price. His splits versus righties and lefties were pretty good and he only hit under .300 in 2 of the 6 months. Oh yeah….and he also doesn’t turn 27 until July.
Garrett Jones, OF PIT – Yes, 21 HR in 314 at bats is something we love to see. But does that make Jones a keeper? Probably not. While he’s got a decent K/BB ratio, I just don’t see the 28 year old rookie who got bounced out of two other organizations maintaining enough to warrant protection. He’s definitely re-draft material if he remains an everyday player for the Pirates because he’s got potential. But I’m trusting him more as a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper in the later rounds than I am as one of my first basemen walking into the year.
Justin Upton, OF ARI – Looking at the numbers, the Diamondbacks right fielder is as enigmatic as his brother, B.J. He hits .300 with a 20-20 season as a 22 year old after falling short of expectations the year before with a .250 avergae and only 15 dingers. So will the real Justin Upton please stand up. The fact that he’s so young is a huge bonus and he should continue to grow and mature as a ball player. I’ve said in previous posts (Club 20-20) that repeating a 20-20 season can be tough, but I think, if Upton keeps his head on straight, that he could be a perrennial member.
Michael Bourn, OF HOU – I’m going to take this opportunity to pat myself on the back for this one. I’ve been a big fan of the speedster since his days in the Philadelphia farm system and while his average killed me in 2008, I had the faith in him to re-draft the following season. Hell, I even plugged him to you last year. Talk about a payoff! Bourn stole 61 bases last year and hit .286 on the season giving me exactly what I thought he could do. He’ll continue to hit leadoff for the Astros and he’ll continue to improve his plate discipline. If it were me, and it is, I’d keep him.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF CLE – Two schools of thought here as this becomes a very interesting season for the 27 year old right fielder. The first has him being a fundamentally sound, all around ball player who went 20-20 with a .300 average despite playing for one of the worst teams in the league. The Tribe was without Grady Sizemore most of the time and traded away Victor Martinez, leavin Choo and Jhonny Peralta as the only two decent bats in the lineup. And still Choo produced. But then there are those that bring up the fact that Choo is really looking towards playing for Korea in the Asian Games in November 2010. If he helps the team win a gold medal then Choo will receive an exemption from the 2 year mandatory military service that he must fufill by the time he is 30 years old. So will Choo go all out for the Tribe again or will he hold back to stay ready for the Asian Games? I think it’ll be somewhere in the middle but if he gets banged up at all, I don’t see him really pushing himself to make it back for Cleveland.
Nelson Cruz, OF TEX – Power, power and more power. Here’s another guy of whom I am a big fan. The .260 average is tough to take, but in just 486 AB last season the Rangers right fielder popped 33 HR while stealing 20 bases. His streakiness can be a problem, especially for head to head leagues, but he is a budding star on the rise. Hard to believe he’ll turn 30 in July, but he’s definitely going to be mashing for more years to come. Couple that with the Ballpark at Arlington, hitters like a healthy Josh Hamilton (we hope), Michael Young, Ian Kinsler and Chris Davis, and we’ve got a recipe for big power totals. The speed is a bonus right now, so don’t be surprised to see the SB numbers dwindle this season. Hoepfully they won’t but again, you’re not drafting him for his speed.
Andre Ethier, OF LAD – First it was Matt Kemp and now it’s Ethier making his big breakout on the big stage at Dodger Stadium. He has been in the Dodgers’ system since 2003 and in ‘06 he finally started to make a little noise in the bigs. From then on, he has gradually improved his game and last year posted career highs in HR (31) and RBI (106) while hitting .272 and showing a penchant for the dramatic game winning hit/HR. If we take that “age of 27 rule” to heart, then 2009 was the year to have him. But I don’t think he’s done just yet. He might not smack 30 HR again, but if he doesn’t, I’m sure he’ll bring up that batting average to around .290 -.300 where he normally sits. His 2008 was pretty solid, so I don’t know how cheap you got him for last year, but if he’s sitting under $15 in auction leagues or 8th round or lower in snake drafts, then I’d consider hanging onto him so long as you don’t have too many power guys on your squad.
Adam Jones, OF BAL – Jones was my pick for 2009 AL Breakout Player of the Year, and save for a few bumps and bruises (and an ankle problem) that limited him to just 473 AB last year, he certainly didn’t disappoint. He finished the season with a batting line of .277-19-70-10 and could have done even more with an additional 50 AB. But so goes the life of a guy who goes all out every game and leaves his heart and soul on the field. And the best, in my opinion, is yet to come. Jones turns 25 in August in 2010 and is surely a player that can push the limits and go 20-20 on a regular basis. You might lose him for a stretch here or there if he continues to get banged up, but he’s shown marked improvement each year across the board — power, speed, average, OBP and slugging percentage. Hopefully you didn’t overpay for him last year and can hang onto him for the 2010 season. I think he’s only going to get better.
Adam Wainwright, SP STL – I honestly thought that this was our 2009 NL Cy Young Award winner, but Tim Lincecum’s overall numbers edged him out despite a league leading 19 wins last year. Wainwright has made tremendous strides since Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan converted him from a reliever and if he continues to improve, he’ll be involved in the balloting on an annual basis. Over the last 3 years he’s lowered his ERA, managed a very solid WHIP and is going deep into games allowing the Cardinals’ bats to provide him with run support while keeping the opposition at bay. He held opposing teams to a .244 average in 2009 and has a .254 career batting average against. He’s got a great mix of pitches and doesn’t feel the need to overpower hitters while still amassing quality strikeout numbers — 212 last year. I like him because he’s steady and he’s one of those guys that used to slide under the radar. If you have him for cheap with no other pitching going into next season then I’d consider holding him. But if you feel like you could use more power heading into 2010, then you might consider trading him for a big bat. There’s always quality starting pitching to be had in fantasy baseball drafts.
Josh Johnson, SP FLA – An up and coming strikeout king in the making? Looks like it. Johnson has been spectacular since his return from Tommy John surgery and has compiled a 22-6 record with 268 Ks in 296.1 innings since his midseason return in 2008. His arm is strong and he should continue his rise to the top. You probably didn’t get him for too cheap though after his 2008 second half, so keeping him might be a concern. I see him in that same mold as Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett — quality starting pitching that just needed a move out of Florida. It’ll happen soon enough and that might be the time to hold onto him depending on where he ends up. But for now, I might take my chances and hope to re-draft him.
Wandy Rodriguez, SP HOU – I’m going to lay it out right from the start. Do NOT keep this guy. I don’t care that he had a rock solid season in 2009 and actually improved on his ratios from 2008. I am not a fan. Chalk it up to the sun shining on a dog’s ass for a season and remember that he dropped 3 of his last 4 starts in 2009 and didn’t even look good versus the Mets, Reds and the already clinched the NL Central Cardinals. I do not see him having as good a year in 2010, so please….for the love of fantasy baseball….heed my warning.
Ryan Franklin, RP STL – Here’s a guy who makes me nervous going into 2010. Franklin stepped up last year and took over the closer’s role for the Cardinals and was rock solid. He notched 38 saves while posting a 1.92 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP and looked as reliable as any other closer…even the ones that won’t turn 38 in March. He’ll walk into spring training with the closer’s job, but there are still a few vultures out there, namely Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan. Plus, I just don’t see Franklin maintaining those ratios. Call it a gut feeling or the fact that he has a career 4.07 ERA (yes, I know he was a starter for Seattle a few years back). You likely got him for less than a song so he could easily be worth holding onto for a super low price, but make sure you cover yourself in the draft if you do.
David Aardsma, RP SEA – Closers on bad teams are always the most highly debated when it comes to keeping players from year to year. Just ask owners of Joakim Soria. But the question about Aardsma is whether or not he can repeat his breakout 2009 or was it just a fluke. Personally, I don’t see anyone else in the Mariners’ system stepping up and taking away his job, however, he’s definitely a guy that you might very well still be able to re-draft on the cheap side. Lots of people dismiss closers as just one category guys and let them slip in most drafts and even more so for semi-unproven guys on crappy teams. I figure you can let him go (unless you’ve got him for like a buck) and just grab him in the middle rounds of your draft.
Andrew Bailey, RP OAK – And last, but certainly not least, we’ve got our 2009 AL Rookie of the Year. A tremendous season for Bailey who also falls into the category of closers on bad teams. But rather than just re-iterate what I’ve said before, check out my article on Rookie of the Year Awards Over-Inflating Fantasy Value.
Just to remind you, the players listed above should be players you got on the cheap side back in 2009. If you are contemplating keeping any of them, be sure that you’re not paying too much. Again, one of the keys to fantasy baseball success is value picks. It’s great if you’ve got a guy who you think will be a stud down the road, but if you’re paying too much for him, then you’re negating the positives and hurting yourself in your upcoming draft. Try to make sensible decisions. Try not to keep players you think you can re-draft for equal or less money. It’s always nice to walk into a new season with a solid group of guys, but you can’t do it at the expense of your draft. Be smart, and I’ll see you all in the money next year!
If you missed Part I of the Keeper League Article, just click here and check it out!
Someone I didn’t cover? More keeper questions? Need help formulating your 2010 fantasy baseball strategy? Just email me at Rotobuzzguy@gmail.com and let me help you make the right moves.
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