As we move closer to the start of Spring Training for the 2010 MLB season, it’s getting to that point where you folks in fantasy baseball keeper leagues are going to have to make your final decisions as to who to protect for the upcoming season. Some of the decisions are pretty easy, while others, not so much. In Part I of this series I discussed some the players that were amongst the top keepers in 2009 but failed to live up to their expectations and what I expect from them in 2010. Part II was dedicated to the borderline guys; the ones who were considered 2009 breakout performers and have more than likely been shopped to you as protects for the upcoming year. Well today, we’re going to combine both parts, add in a little extra, and pull out a final list of who makes the cut before the 2010 season even begins. Some of the names are pretty easy to pick while you might see (or not see, for that matter) a few that’ll have you doing a double-take. I present to you, the Top Keepers for the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Season.
I’ve decided, rather than just listing players, to do today’s segment much in the way of doing the position tiers. Not all leagues have the same rules and not all players have the same value from league to league, so ranking a guy 9th amongst outfielders because he steals crazy bases might not be in the best interest of every owner in every league. As I said in the second installment, it’s all about cost and value. So for some of the guys listed here, their protectable status will depend on how much they will cost you in 2010 to keep. If the cost to keep them is too high, you might want to just let them go back into the player pool and try to go after them in your upcoming draft. Others, the ones you picked up in 2009 at a serious bargain price, could still be worthwhile keepers. After a synopsis of the position, I’ve broken it down into three categories — No-Brainers, Only If You Have Him For Cheap and If You’re Desparate. I’m pretty sure the headings are self-explanatory, but in case they’re not, let me just say that the first are guys you should definitely hold onto, the second, only if you have them for single digit dollars in a fantasy baseball auction league or, in fantasy baseball snake drafts, an 8th round pick or lower,and the third is if you’re sitting in a keeper league and have limited or no legitimate options. Usually, the third is reserved for guys that may have been kept in the past but are on the downside of their career. One note on the “If You’re Desperate” category — if the player you’re thinking about looks too pricey from last year, then he probably is. Don’t go investing heavily in a guy that is in decline or could seriously disappoint for what you’re spending. There are probably younger or better possibilities that you should take a chance on for that kind of money. Above all, remember, this is just a guideline for you, not the gospel.
Catchers
Just as in years past, the catcher position is pretty thin in the way of keepers. You’ve got a very small group of guys that you just don’t want to let go and a handful of guys that sit on the fence. One of the primary reasons has been the lack of production, or levels of similar production should I say, for the position. In past seasons, you’ve had limited power, nothing in the way of stolen bases, and averages that can drag down your team totals, especially in rotisserie leagues. You also have a number of platoon situations, so, in your draft, waiting on a guy who plays 3 or 4 games a week, is not unreasonable at all. But lately what I’ve seen is that there has been an increase of power at the position over the last few years. In 2009, there were 7 backstops that hit 20 or more HR, up from 4 the year before and 2 in 2007. As a matter of fact, over the last 3 years, there have been 20 catchers who have averaged double digit HR. So what does that mean? It means that after the top 3, waiting on a catcher in your draft, is probably the most sensible thing you can do, especially with the influx of young talented hitters coming up in the ranks. The No-Brainers: Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Victor Martinez; Only If You Have Him For Cheap: Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero; If You’re Desperate: Russell Martin, Jorge Posada
1st Base
Power, power and more power. That’s the way it’s always been and that’s the way it stays for 2010. The players you keep at the first base position are the guys that let their bats do the talking. As I’ve discussed over the last year or two, the premium bucks you spend should be on the big time power guys. With all the concerns of performance-enhancing drug testing, the number of guys hitting 30 or 40 HR is getting lower and lower while the modest 20 HR guys and guys who steal double digit bases is on the rise. You can always build a team of balanced players, but in fantasy, a powerful offense is crucial to your success and the need for atleast one, if not two, big time mashers is vital. As it has been in years past, a large number of those much needed mashers can be found at first base, and 2010 is no different. The No-Brainers: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Dunn, Justin Morneau; Only If You Have Him For Cheap: Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Pablo Sandoval, Joey Votto; If You’re Desperate: Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis
2nd Base
What normally was a very thin position in the line of productive players you had to have, has gradually grown into a gold mine for fantasy baseball stars. As a matter of fact, 2009 saw totals like we’ve never seen before from second base. There were 10 players who hit 20 or more HR and 13 who stole 15 or more bases. For me, that means the position is getting a little more plentiful, and the ability to wait on a quality second baseman in your draft continues to grow. You still have a fairly small group of elite, but you now have plenty more to choose from if you’re looking to walk into the 2010 season with a middle infielder or two already locked in. There’s a good selection amongst possible keepers depending on whether you want to go for power or speed here. However, the drop-off in production after the top 10 is fairly significant, so you’re going to have to decide whther or not you want to excel here or just get by. Nothing wrong with either strategy, so long as you don’t protect a guy to just get by and it costs you better production elsewhere. The No-Brainers: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Brandon Phillips; Only If You Have Him For Cheap: Aaron Hill, Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, Robinson Cano, Dan Uggla; If You’re Desperate: Jose Lopez, Ian Stewart
Shortstop
Now we’re talking thin here. I usually like to equate this position with some famous anorexic celebrities, but I got an email once declaring the comparison as offensive, so I’ll spare you all the Karen Carpenter jokes about the quality of the shortstop position. Let’s just say that you’ve got your upper echelon, a handful of assorted possibilities, and then the rest. This position, after the top 5, has a major drop in talent level, so unless you’ve got a super-stud, my feeling is to wait on the draft and find a serviceable body to pick up. You’re not going to find a whole lot of power here and decent SB totals can easily be had in the draft for less than what you’re going to spend keeping a borderline guy. The No-Brainers: Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes (sadly, yes, you have to give him another shot), Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter; Only If You Have Him For Cheap: Ben Zobrist (a better option here than at 2B), Alexei Ramirez, Jason Bartlett, Elvis Andrus; If You’re Desperate: None. Don’t do it. Save yourself the money/pick for your draft.
3rd Base
Interestingly enough, 2009 was a seriously down fantasy year for guys at the hot corner. In 2009 we had only 11 third basemen hit 20 or more HR, down from 19 the year before and 15 back in 2008. However, it looks like 2010 should be a nice rebound year and we can, once again, rely on our third sackers to man up and hit the long ball better. Obviously, that means, again, that there’s no rush to go out and protect a guy for big money if you can get similar production in your draft at a discounted price. As a matter of fact, I’m willing to bet that out of all the infield positions, we’re going to see more breakouts from lower tiered guys at third this year than the other spots. The No-Brainers: Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, David Wright (regretfully, another one you have to give a second chance), Mark Reynolds (a better option here than at first); Only If You Have Him For Cheap: Pablo Sandoval, Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Zimmerman, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins; If You’re Desperate: Gordon Beckham, Michael Young, Adrian Beltre, Chipper Jones
Designated Hitters
I don’t like keeping DHs, bottom line. Unless they can qualify, or you can just use them, at another position, you’re really strapping yourself by protecting/drafting a DH. Personally, I like the roster flexibility and unless there’s no one better on the board, I like to use an extra infielder or outfielder at my DH spot — especially in leagues that allow daily roster moves. I don’t even have to use the categories here as there is only one player I would consider holding onto and that’s Vladimir Guerrero now that he’s on board with the Texas Rangers. The ballpark and surrounding lineup should help him increase his 2009 totals, but don’t go holding onto him at the expense of a better keeper at another position. More often than not, DHs are an afterthought and you might be able to grab him cheaper in your draft.
Outfielders
Now here’s where the complexities really start. You basically have 3 options for possible keepers here. You’ve got the power guys that steal minimal bases, the speed guys with little or no power, and the balanced players who can do both for you. A lot of the hot up and comers fall into the third group as we’ve seen an increase in guys who contribute to all 5 basic rotisserie categories. As a matter of fact, there were 7 outfielders last year who qualified to join the 20-20 club and that’s pretty damn good. But when it comes to deciding who you’re going to keep, you can’t ignore the guys who do one and not the other. Like I said before, the big power guys will be at a premium again, so you’re going to want to hold onto someone if he is a true masher. Likewise, for the speedsters. While we’ve seen an overall increase in the number of stolen bases over the last 2 years, it’s always nice to get that extra edge with a guy you know is going to swipe you 50 bases. It also depends on how many outfielders you start. If you start 6 outfielders, then protecting more might be a wise strategy with the increae of platoons. You can hold onto a “specialist” and build in the other categories with different guys. However, if you only start 3, then you might be short-changing yourself by using a speedster when you could have filled the slot with a more balanced player. It’s a tough call sometimes, so you have to adapt to your league rules and see what works best. In the meantime… The No-Brainers: Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore (if you believe in the rebound hype), Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran, Manny Ramirez, Jayson Werth; If You Have Him For Cheap: Justin Upton, Jason Bay, Ben Zobrist (although a better keeper in the infield), Bobby Abreu, Carlos Lee, Andre Ethier, Nick Markakis, Adam Lind, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Torii Hunter, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, Jay Bruce, Adam Jones; If You’re Desperate: Shin-Soo Choo, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Denard Span, Hunter Pence, Andrew McCutchen, Chris Coghlan (although could be more interesting at 2B), Josh Hamilton, Michael Cuddyer, Nolan Reimold, Johnny Damon, Vernon Wells
Starting Pitchers
For those that have been reading for a while, you’ll know that I am not a fan of protecting starting pitching. The position is always incredibly deep from year to year and you can always assemble yourself a high quality and very competitive staff without spending big bucks on a so-called ace. Now yes, there are certain elites that you can’t ignore, but the number of guys that I’m willing to keep is very small in comparison to any other position. When you’re figuring your draft day budget, any expert peddling free fantasy baseball advice (and even those that make you pay to hear their two cents) will tell you that the bulk of your money goes on offense. Well, I’m not telling you any different, and the fact is, you can really put a stranglehold on your team if you go on keeping starting pitchers whose same, or even better, production could be had for much cheaper in the draft. Just ask the guys who blew their wads last year on guys like Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb and Cole Hamels. That’s not to say you keep no one. Just be even more selective here than at any other position. The No-Brainers: Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke; If You Have Him For Cheap: CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Adam Wainwright, Justin Verlander, Johan Santana, Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson; If You’re Desperate: Javier Vazquez, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Cliff Lee
Relief Pitchers
There are usually two schools of thought with regard to closers. There are those that will say that it is a throw away position as they only contribue in one category and there are those that will tell you that it is integral to grab yourself atleast one upper echelon reliever. I fall into the latter category. As a matter of fact, I even tried out the former strategy and went cheap on relievers last year and the results were disastrous. I even wrote a column on Addict Fantasy Sports last season to vent my frustrations with deviating from my normal strategy. It was appropriately titled “Why Didn’t I Take a Closer?!?!” and I recommend you give it a read and learn from my mistake. That being said… The No-Brainers: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Marmol, Joakim Soria, Francisco Rodriguez; If You Have Him For Cheap: Heath Bell, Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, David Aardsma, Bobby Jenks, Francisco Cordero; If You’re Desperate: Brian Fuentes, Andrew Bailey, Trevor Hoffman, Rafael Soriano, Matt Capps, Brad Lidge
So there you have it, folks. I’ve said all I can really say about who you should be keeping for the 2010 fantasy baseball season. The ultimate decisions are up to you. It shouldn’t be too tough of a process for you if you remember the important criteria — what are my needs, how much will the guy cost, what do the rest of the league owners do, and can I fill that void for cheaper on draft day. If your answer to that last question is even remotely a yes, then you know not to keep the guy. If it’s a no, then it looks like you’ve got him for atleast another year.
My 2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings and Position Tiers are coming out soon, so get ready! I’ll also be doing a review of all the fantasy baseball magazines which have already started to appear on newsstands, so you’ll be able to see which one’s are worthwhile and which ones can be left on the shelves.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!!!
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The following is a series of comments posted prior to the changeover that didn’t seem to make it inthe transfer. Still, I feel the questions and answers provide some value, so here they are…
From David on 1/12/10:
I have a questions about Grady Sizemore– Do you really feel skeptical about a rebound? If so why?
As well, I agree with your comments about Reyes and Wright, although I think they may be a bit premature to write off yet, but Johan in the “only if you have them cheap” list????? That seems prejudiced to me. In terms of consistency, bounce-back-ability, talent, etc. he has proven to be a valuable commodity year in year out, even with elbow spurs (which the last time he came back from them, he won a cy young). I ask why you downgrade him?
From Howard on 1/12/10:
It’s not so much that I feel skeptical about a rebound for Sizemore, but more in line with what I wrote in the post about 26 being the new 27 (two posts ago). I feel like he’ll have a solid season, but I don’t expect him to put up the numbers like he did in 2008. I feel like when a player suffers an injury, like Sizemore did, and tries to play through it, only making it worse, he loses something. He had some fantastic seasons and I truly believe he peaked in ‘08. That’s not to say he won’t perform well, but I’d keep my expectations in check. There are those touting a huge rebound year and a return to the ‘08 numbers. I think otherwise.
As for Santana, it’s a matter of a a 10 year veteran who, prior to last season threw 5 straight seasons of 220+ innings (ok, so one season was 219) and just had surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow. For me, he becomes a big injury risk, and not likely to return to the Johan of old. I’ve never been a fan of protecting starting pitching and he’s got enough red flags for me to hesitate in protecting him.
From Ben on 1/12/10:
Most everyone has Felix Hernandez high on their lists, but he doesn’t even make your “desperate!” grade. An oversight on your part or are they all wrong?
And how does Aardsma make the “if he’s cheap” list but not Huston Street?
Not saying your wrong, just out of sync w/ other lists I’m seeing and wondering why.
From Howard on 1/13/10:
Ben –
As I said in my article, not only am I not a fan of protecting starting pitching, but I strongly believe that you can build a rock solid fantasy staff without spending big bucks or a high draft choice on a pitcher. While King Felix has been a hot commodity ever since he joined the league in 2005, last season was the only year that he produced numbers worthy of “ace” status. His numbers from 2006 through 2008 could have been had for much cheaper than what he probably went for, and one season of finally putting it together does not sell him to me. Protecting him this year is likely to cost you plenty and I truly believe that for what he will run you in 2010, you are better served with a pair of much cheaper, middle of the road starters and a stronger offense.
There’s certainly no guarantee that he will produce like he did last year, and the Mariners have made little or no efforts to improve the offense of their team, so the wins might be a lot harder to come by this year. Sure, they added Figgins, but who’s providing the power to knock in those runs? Personally I see Hernandez’ ratios falling back closer to 2008’s totals with closer to 14 or 15 wins. Take that money and buy yourself a Ted Lilly and some better hitters. You won’t be disappointed.
As for Huston Street vs David Aardsma, I see it as a very simple choice. Aardsma had a solid season last year and comes into 2010 as the Mariners’ closer. It’s a great home ballpark for his ratios and the M’s did nothing to bring in any competition for him. The job is his, plain and simple. Street, on the other hand, has lost his job before, is slightly injury prone, and has vultures like Joe Beimel, Manny Corpas and especially Franklin Morales looming over him. Not to mention his implosion in the playoffs last year. Sometimes it can be tough for a closer to regain his form after a moment on the big stage like that — see Mark Wohlers.
I hope this helps and gives you a little more guidance. Keep reading and feel free to comment and update me on your team this year. Good luck!
From Ben on 1/13/10:
Thanks for the explanation — makes sense, I can see your reasoning on Felix and Street. Being a Mariners fan is an exercise in sado-masochism. Their off-season moves have been focused on building a small ball team that wins with speed and defense, and wears down the opposition. I’m not a big fan of small ball, but I hope it works out for them.
I’ve enjoyed the keeper series, thanks for the pre-season read.
(By sado-masochism, I mean masochism. Seattle people are pretty friendly.)
Im in a keeper league and was refering to your article on keepers for a little advice. I have Matt Holliday in the 1st round and Adam Jones in the 17th. You got Holliday as a no-brainer but you also got Jones at, if you got him cheap. Which one holds more value?
As a value pick, I think Jones is better in the 17th over Holliday as a first rounder. However, if you have to pick one over the other, then you MUST go with Holliday. The production you’re going to get from him will easily surpass that of Jones. Easily. I love Jones, and I think he’ll blossom into a phenomenal player, but you’re not going to find anyone out there in a keeper league that is going to replace Holliday’s numbers if you let him go. Guys that produce like that are always kept unless you’re also dealing with contracts. Are you? If not, you have to go with Holliday.
Hey there, no were not dealing with contracts in our league but know Jones will get drafted way higher this year and just worried of a career year breakout, nut i understand the arguement for Holliday. The other problem im having is that i have Yovani Gallardo in the 9th round and Holliday in the 1st is in the way of that one keeper spot and im a HUGE fan of Yovani. The other part is if i keep Yovani he would be my third starter behind Verlander and King Felix. Would you still go Holliday over Yovani?
So then the question you have is whether or not Holliday in the first round is more valuable than Jones in the 17th plus Gallardo in the 9th…I see.
Well, considering you already have Verlander and King Felix, do you really need to keep the third starter at the expense of keeping a stud like Holliday? Personally, I don’t like the idea of keeping 3 starters, especially when you have 2 guys like Verlander and Hernandez. So for me, the value of keeping Gallardo in the 9th isn’t that high.
The question I have really is, who do you think will be available to you in the first round if you give up Holliday? If you think his production plus Jones’ will far surpass that of keeping Holliday, then maybe it is the right move for you. But if your first round pick in this keeper league is no better than a 5th round pick in a non-keeper league, then I don’t know if I would give up Holliday’s production.