Well, considering you already have Verlander and King Felix, do you really need to keep the third starter at the expense of keeping a stud like Holliday? Personally, I don’t like the idea of keeping 3 starters, especially when you have 2 guys like Verlander and Hernandez. So for me, the value of keeping Gallardo in the 9th isn’t that high.

The question I have really is, who do you think will be available to you in the first round if you give up Holliday? If you think his production plus Jones’ will far surpass that of keeping Holliday, then maybe it is the right move for you. But if your first round pick in this keeper league is no better than a 5th round pick in a non-keeper league, then I don’t know if I would give up Holliday’s production.

From David on 1/12/10:

I have a questions about Grady Sizemore– Do you really feel skeptical about a rebound? If so why?

As well, I agree with your comments about Reyes and Wright, although I think they may be a bit premature to write off yet, but Johan in the “only if you have them cheap” list????? That seems prejudiced to me. In terms of consistency, bounce-back-ability, talent, etc. he has proven to be a valuable commodity year in year out, even with elbow spurs (which the last time he came back from them, he won a cy young). I ask why you downgrade him?

From Howard on 1/12/10:

It’s not so much that I feel skeptical about a rebound for Sizemore, but more in line with what I wrote in the post about 26 being the new 27 (two posts ago). I feel like he’ll have a solid season, but I don’t expect him to put up the numbers like he did in 2008. I feel like when a player suffers an injury, like Sizemore did, and tries to play through it, only making it worse, he loses something. He had some fantastic seasons and I truly believe he peaked in ‘08. That’s not to say he won’t perform well, but I’d keep my expectations in check. There are those touting a huge rebound year and a return to the ‘08 numbers. I think otherwise.

As for Santana, it’s a matter of a a 10 year veteran who, prior to last season threw 5 straight seasons of 220+ innings (ok, so one season was 219) and just had surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow. For me, he becomes a big injury risk, and not likely to return to the Johan of old. I’ve never been a fan of protecting starting pitching and he’s got enough red flags for me to hesitate in protecting him.

From Ben on 1/12/10:

Most everyone has Felix Hernandez high on their lists, but he doesn’t even make your “desperate!” grade. An oversight on your part or are they all wrong?

And how does Aardsma make the “if he’s cheap” list but not Huston Street?

Not saying your wrong, just out of sync w/ other lists I’m seeing and wondering why.

From Howard on 1/13/10:

Ben –

As I said in my article, not only am I not a fan of protecting starting pitching, but I strongly believe that you can build a rock solid fantasy staff without spending big bucks or a high draft choice on a pitcher. While King Felix has been a hot commodity ever since he joined the league in 2005, last season was the only year that he produced numbers worthy of “ace” status. His numbers from 2006 through 2008 could have been had for much cheaper than what he probably went for, and one season of finally putting it together does not sell him to me. Protecting him this year is likely to cost you plenty and I truly believe that for what he will run you in 2010, you are better served with a pair of much cheaper, middle of the road starters and a stronger offense.

There’s certainly no guarantee that he will produce like he did last year, and the Mariners have made little or no efforts to improve the offense of their team, so the wins might be a lot harder to come by this year. Sure, they added Figgins, but who’s providing the power to knock in those runs? Personally I see Hernandez’ ratios falling back closer to 2008’s totals with closer to 14 or 15 wins. Take that money and buy yourself a Ted Lilly and some better hitters. You won’t be disappointed.

As for Huston Street vs David Aardsma, I see it as a very simple choice. Aardsma had a solid season last year and comes into 2010 as the Mariners’ closer. It’s a great home ballpark for his ratios and the M’s did nothing to bring in any competition for him. The job is his, plain and simple. Street, on the other hand, has lost his job before, is slightly injury prone, and has vultures like Joe Beimel, Manny Corpas and especially Franklin Morales looming over him. Not to mention his implosion in the playoffs last year. Sometimes it can be tough for a closer to regain his form after a moment on the big stage like that — see Mark Wohlers.

I hope this helps and gives you a little more guidance. Keep reading and feel free to comment and update me on your team this year. Good luck!

From Ben on 1/13/10:

Thanks for the explanation — makes sense, I can see your reasoning on Felix and Street. Being a Mariners fan is an exercise in sado-masochism. Their off-season moves have been focused on building a small ball team that wins with speed and defense, and wears down the opposition. I’m not a big fan of small ball, but I hope it works out for them.

I’ve enjoyed the keeper series, thanks for the pre-season read.

(By sado-masochism, I mean masochism. Seattle people are pretty friendly.)