2012 Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft and Experts League from KFFL

Where are the experts taking Montero in drafts?

When preparing for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft, I always like to recommend that, after you put together your own player rankings, cheat sheets and depth charts, you look into doing some mock drafts and check out the latest ADP numbers.  You’ll get some decent insight as to what the rest of the fantasy community is thinking about players you have on your watch list.  Another good tool is to check out all the draft postings from all of the Experts Leagues that have already been completed.  Some are just straight draft results, while others offer you more detail and insight into the participant’s thought process.

This season, I was invited to represent FanGraphs in the KFFL Baseball Analysis Draft and Experts League where such insights are offered to you from the array of competitors.  Here’s a look at my team with some draft thoughts and then we’ll head on over to KFFL for the full analysis.

Quick League Overview:

12-team, mixed league.  Standard 5×5 roto.  28-round Snake Style Draft.  Start 2 catchers, one at each infield position, middle infielder, corner infielder, utility player, 5 outfielders and 9 pitchers.  5 bench spots.

My Team (5th pick):

Not bad, if I say so myself…

Now here’s what I’ll do.  Here’s the link for the results for the entire KFFL B.A.D. Draft and Experts League.  You’ll see everyone’s picks, round by round, and get a short comment from each participant regarding their pick and reason for making each selection.

What I’ll do here is throw you some additional “unedited” commentary regarding my picks as well as some in-draft thoughts I had during the process.  Think of this as the Director’s Cut from the DVD.  You won’t get commentary for every round, but you’ll certainly get most of the highlights.

Pre-Draft

I was very happy about participating in this draft.  The reputation of KFFL and the list of competitors had me both nervous and excited at the same time.  Ray Flowers from Baseball Guys was the one who gave me my first real break with Fanball when I decided to try and turn this hobby/obsession into a career, Jeff Paur is the senior writer and my editor over at RealTime Fantasy Sports for football, I’ve been following Steve Gardner and Doug Anderson for some time now, and all of the other sites represented are big boys in the industry.  I’m definitely not selling myself short here as I know I belong, but there’s still a little piece of me that giggles when someone refers to me as an “expert.”

Round 1

Jose Bautista, 3B — A sigh of relief after learning I had the 5th pick.  Easy, no-brainer choice for me as the top 5 are, pretty much, set in every league.  Happy to have Bautista with his big time power and dual-eligibility.

Round 2

Mark Teixeira, 1B — Damn, first base gets pretty thin once you go past the top six guys.  Yes, you can find yourself a decent 20-25 HR option further down, but I just love having a big-time masher who I don’t have to worry or think about.  His batting average issues don’t scare me.  Give me the power.

Round 3

Roy Halladay, SP — OK, so I always wait on pitching.  Unless I’m experimenting with some crazy draft strategy, I never take a pitcher until after my first five picks are locked in.  But I don’t know these guys on a competitive level and while some preach “wait on pitching” as well, I figured some of the top starters were going to go over the next 14 picks and I wanted to make sure I locked in an ace.  I checked the most recent ADP rankings and according to that list, atleast 6 of those next 14 picks could be starters.  It wasn’t going to kill me to deviate from my usual M.O. here.

Round 4

Ben Zobrist, 2B — Sonofabitch!!!  I mean, I’m not complaining because I still own Halladay, but only two starters went over the next 14 picks and the middle infield was nearly picked clean.  ADP be damned.  These guys don’t care.  Honey badger don’t give a sh*t!  I’m not drafting against regular folk here.  These guys understand the depth of pitching and are confident in building staffs in the later rounds.  Thankfully Zobrist was available, although I’m not really a huge fan.  Like Bautista, the multi-position eligibility is a bonus.

Round 6

Jesus Montero, C — Watching the top backstops come off the board and Joe Mauer (though I never had any interest in him) came off right before my pick.  In a two catcher league you definitely need atleast one top guy and doesn’t the sun shine a little brighter when you play in a league where Montero starts off with catcher eligibility?  Given the way everyone was drafting and what the guys behind me needed, no way was he lasting to my next pick.

Round 8

Ian Kennedy, SP — OK, screw these guys.  We’re on our way back here in the eighth round and there are still a ton of starters on the board.  My last four picks helped build my offense and if these guys were going to keep waiting on these second and third tier pitchers, well damned if I’m not going to make a move here and try and gain an edge in pitching.  I want Dee Gordon at short because I need stolen bases, but it looks like I might be able to wait another round to grab him.

Round 9

Matt Cain, SP — Dammit, Ray!!!  Ray took Gordon with his 9th round choice.  I’m devastated and have to now re-adjust my plans to acquire SBs  from somewhere else.  I’d like to make a move for Cameron Maybin, but it’s still might be a round or two early for him.  I don’t want to lose out on him, but I don’t need to reach just yet.  More importantly, if these guys aren’t going on a pitching run on their own, I’ll try and force the issue.  Halladay, Kennedy and Cain is a formidable top 3, so I feel like I have a little edge and can move on to other positions while these guys fight for the remaining pitchers.

Round 10

Dee Gordon, SS — So right after I made my Cain pick, it was announced that Ray had actually taken Derek Jeter and not Gordon.  I breathed a sigh of relief and checked the rosters of the guys making the next 14 picks.  Looks like all but one have shortstop filled and there are still three shortstops on the board that are technically ranked higher than Gordon.  I grabbed him the instant it was my pick.  My shortstop is set and I’ll use my next pick to grab Maybin.

Round 11

Nick Swisher, OF — Steve Gardner snaked Maybin four picks after my Gordon selection.  Saddened by the news, I opted to go with more home run power.  I can find more speed later on.

Round 13

Adam Dunn, CI — I know I’m not the only one who believes in a rebound and one of these guys was going to snatch him up soon.  Potential 40 bombs this late?  Oh baby!

Round 16

Carlos Quentin, OF — Needed to fill in the outfield a little and was all set to grab Lucas Duda until Doug Anderson snagged him five picks prior.  I love the way Quentin looks when he’s up at the plate, but truth be told, I hate this pick.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up on the DL by the first of May.

Round 19

Yoenis Cespedes, OF — Two rounds before, I was going to take Bryce Harper, but instead opted for a second closer.  I love Harper’s upside, lik e most people do, but if he doesn’t start the season with the Nationals, it’s an aggravating pick.  If this were a keeper league, then no problem, but in a re-draft league and without 100% confidence in him breaking camp with the big club, I passed.  I didn’t want to look like the over-eager, buy-into-the-hype fanboy (sorry Josh).  This round, though, I was ecstatic to get word that Cespedes had signed with Oakland just seconds before my pick came up.  Not sure if any of the other guys were going to consider him earlier than his ADP once the news broke, but I wasn’t taking a chance.  The kid is a 27 year old beast with 20-20 potential and he WILL start the season with the big club.  Oakland doesn’t shell out that kind of money and throw him down in Triple-A.  I smoked a Cohiba and made myself a mojito in this pick’s honor.

Round 20

Nick Hundley, C — Just practicing what I preach.  Lov emy catching tandem.  Love it!

Round 23

Ivan Nova, SP — Is there something I’m missing here with this kid?  Sure, the strikeouts aren’t great, but he’s still developing and the Yankees have been very good about his innings increases.  He’s my 6th starter.  Bwah ah ah!

Round 25

Jon Jay, OF — A super sleeper here.  Will get tons of playing time in center and will help balance the batting average woes that my team will potentially have with the likes of Bautista, Teixeira, Dunn and Swisher.

Round 27

Bryan LaHair, 1B — Another super sleeper and one that will reap mad benefits in the power department here.  I see him being either the next Mike Morse or the next Chris Shelton circa 2006.  If he goes undrafted, he’ll be one of the hottest waiver pick-ups in April, mark my words.  And whether you believe in him or not, he’s going to be a great sell-high candidate this year come mid-May.

So that’s the way it went.  Lots of fun and I really do love my team.  I’ve got a great balance of power and speed, a solid rotation and a great bullpen as well.  Since this wasn’t just a mock draft and is actually a league, I’ll be keeping you posted throughout the year.  Last year’s Roto Reality piece was a bit of a bust given my increased workload around the web, so perhaps I’ll just use this league for it this season.

Tagged as: Adam Dunn, Adam Jones, Angel Pagan, Ben Zobrist, Bryan LaHair, Bryce Harper, cameron maybin, Carlos Quentin, cheat sheets, Chris Shelton, Danny Valencia, Dee Gordon, depth charts, Derek Jeter, draft strategy, Edinson Volquez, experts league, FanGraphs, fantasy baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep, fantasy baseball strategy, Ian Kennedy, Ivan Nova, Jay Bruce, Jemile Weeks, Jesus Montero, Jhoulys Chacin, Joe Mauer, Jon Jay, Jose Bautista, KFFL Baseball Analysis Draft and Experts League, Lucas Duda, Luke Gregerson, Mark Teixeira, Matt Cain, Mike Morse, mock drafts, Nick Hundley, Nick Swisher, player rankings, Rafael Betancourt, Roy Halladay, Ryan Madson, Trevor Cahill, Yoenis Cespedes, Yunel Escobar