Do you know me? If not, you better learn fast!
In truth, the fantasy baseball sleeper just doesn’t exist anymore. With the number of fantasy baseball magazines published each year and the number of fantasy baseball web sites popping up everywhere on the internet, we are saturated with player coverage. If you invest enough time in reading, there is literally no stone left unturned. So rather than waste your time talking about “sleepers” like Matt Moore, Yu Darvish, and Brett Lawrie, I’m going to use this time to point out the guys who won’t be overvalued on draft day — the guys who will be left for the later rounds of your draft or the ones you’ll be able to steal for a buck in your auction.
Addison Reed, RP CHW – The White Sox may start the season with Matt Thornton as their closer, but Reed should be the guy who ultimately ends up with the job. He’s posted a double digit K/9 on every level he’s pitched, including a very short stint in the majors last year, has a miniscule walk rate and a LOB% (strand rate) that makes managers drool when it comes to relievers. He’s got a 95 mph heater, a low 80′s slider that just makes hitters look silly, and he can toss in a change -up there as well just to keep things interesting. I don’t like to make too many comparisons, but if you were bummed that you missed the boat on Craig Kimbrel and his ridiculous saves/strikeout totals last year, you’ll want to take notice of Reed.
J.D. Martinez, OF HOU – The Astros are a very dark place for which to go for fantasy help, but as bad as they are, there can still be a little bit of fantasy gold found. Not much, but a little. If you watched Martinez in his call-up late last season, you got to see some potential. He failed to make as much contact as he did in the minors, but he kept his K% at a reasonable level and when he did connect, he put the ball in play. His minor league BABIP numbers were all pretty high, so a .325 BABIP isn’t so outlandish for him. You can probably expect an average somewhere between .270 and .280 right now, especially if his LD% (line drive rate) stays up there. Coupled with that is decent power potential. Nothing outlandish, but 15-18 HR aren’t out of the question. If you’re looking to round out your outfield late or just looking for some bench depth, Martinez is worth a look. The stigma of the Astros will keep him on draft boards for a while.
Nick Hundley, C SD – OK, so I’ve probably tooted this horn a few times too many between all the sites for which I write. But I am a big believer in Hundley this year and again, I will point you to his numbers over the final two months of the 2011 season — .389 for the month of August, .351 for September. And those numbers are just the tip of the iceberg for how well he hit over those two months after he had surgery to clean out his elbow. I don’t want to beat a dead horse here, so if you’ve read this diatribe before, then just keep him on your draft board. If you haven’t, then check out this piece on him that I wrote for FanGraphs.
Bryan LaHair, 1B/OF CHC – Listen, I hear it can take years for a guy’s testicles to drop after being born, so I don’t want to dismiss a guy just because he’s a late bloomer. And at 29 years old, that may be exactly what LaHair is. He seemed to struggle early on in the minors, but back in 2009, his power turned a corner. He still had to work on his game and never found a clear path to majors to help with some on-the-job training, but his ISO took a massive jump into the .240 range and suddenly he was a consistent 20/80 guy. His K% was still a little high, but he also started to consistently improve his walk rate. Then last season he took an even bigger step forward with 38 HR, a .331 average and an insane 1.070 OPS. He came up and looked decent, although he did continue his penchant for striking out. Hopefully, that Quadruple-A tag keeps his profile low on draft day. The Cubs will likely start LaHair at first base and let him keep the position warm for uber-prospect Anthony Rizzo. While that’s happening, the club will continue to look for takers for Alfonso Soriano or Marlon Byrd and once they do, they will shift LaHair to the outfield. So it’s really a win-win situation here for LaHair. If Rizzo struggles, then he holds first base. If Rizzo continues to light up Triple-A, then the club will pursue a trade even faster and move LaHair to another position. He starts somewhere on the field either way. Look for him late as most people will just overlook him entirely.
Matt Angle, OF BAL — This one might be a little more speculative as Angle will likely be fighting for a job this spring. Still, there’s some solid potential here. With Nick Markakis’ Opening Day status in jeopardy, the club will be looking for someone to plug in there to start the season and then stick with the club as a 4th outfielder. Angle can do that and more. He’s got great plate discipline — solid walk rate, low strikeout rate — which has allowed him to post some fantastic OBP numbers throughout the minors and has solid speed on the bases. That is something the O’s desperately need, especially if they have to endure another season of Brian Roberts on the DL. They just don’t have much else in that department. But while he’d make the team as an outfielder, it should also be noted that Angle spent this winter playing second base in Baltimore’s development league, so he could actually fill in over there as well. Keep an eye on him during the spring and make sure he stays on your radar. Even if you don’t steal him in your draft, he’s low-profile enough to be a good waiver claim early on.
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Don’t sleep on Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers. During his first true season following his brief 2010 stint in the bigs, dude posted 96 K’s in 53 2/3 innings pitched while settling into his role as set up man to fellow newcomer Javy Guerra . Watching Jansen pitch there is much to be excited about, a converted catcher with a big arm, Jansen offers up an explosive mid 90′s fastball with great movement to both sides of the plate. While comparisons to the great Mariano Rivera may be premature, if not entirely unattainable, surely one can grasp the sheer dominance a fastball with life can have over a hitter. What is even more encouraging is that Jansen seems to have found the mental toughness needed to be a dominant late innings guy. Specifically, during the later portion of the 2011 season Jansen entered hostile territories in countless close late game situations and excelled, striking out the side on numerous occasions in places like San Francisco and Arizona (both teams in the playoff race at the time). Even though some scouts had questions about his command entering the 2011 season, Jansen answered the call when he doubled his strikouts while cutting his walks in half. Count on Jansen, barring injury, to be in just about every close game this year for the Dodgers. And considering the plethora of good pitching and bad hitting in the NL West this year, there will be plenty of those. Also Jansen will be pitching on the same team as superstar Matt Kemp, while playing in a division that lost Carlos Beltran, and in a league that has lost Albert and Prince. Expected to go anywhere between the 10-15th rounds,all signs this season seem to point for Kenley Jansen to provide more than adaquate dividends for fantasy baseball managers this season.
-Love ya Howard, say hi to the dogs for me. I’ll see you at the Rangers-Islanders game or at Original Rays Pizza (but not famous original Rays)