Position Players
Catchers
If you’re looking for a fantasy catcher without overspending, then Miguel Montero is right up your alley. He doesn’t get the fanfare that the top five or six guys get and is usually available around the eighth round (ADP – 101). What he provides is solid pop with a decent average — figure 15-20 HR with a 2.75-ish mark, so long as he is healthy. And that’s the one knock on him…his health. He managed 140 games last year which was a career high for him, so all looks good right now. But he’s had some trouble in the past, so be confident in him, but a bit wary as well.
Backing Montero up is veteran Henry Blanco. If you’re rostering Blanco, it’s because you’re either in a 30-team NL-only league or you have Montero and he just suffered a debilitating injury. If those are not the scenarios, then it’s best to leave Blanco alone. Rumor has it that the Diamondbacks are actually looking for additional catcher help this spring.
First Base
Last year the hype on Paul Goldschmidt was big and the 6′ 3″, 245 lb lumbering righty didn’t disappoint. After crushing the ball in the minors over the last two and a half seasons, the Diamondbacks had him bypass Triple-A altogether and brought him to the show at the tail end of the season. Goldschmidt responded with eight home runs in 177 plate appearances and posted a .224 ISO. Like most of the big sluggers, strikeouts are a bit of a problem and that will keep his average down, but if you’re looking for youth and power, he’s just 24 years old and carries one big-ass stick.
Second Base
Ever see someone so happy to get out of Canada before? Aaron Hill had a tremendous year for the Blue Jays in 2009, but regressed in a major way the following year. He struggled out of the gate last season and when the D-Backs came knocking and offered Kelly Johnson straight up, the Jays jumped at the chance. At first, folks thought the D-Backs were nuts, but after posting a slash line of .315/.386/.492 in 136 plate appearances, the doubters were silenced. It would be hard to expect Hill to duplicate that performance, but he’s definitely got it in him to hit 15 HR and post a .260 average.
Shortstop
Stephen Drew is the incumbent, but currently he is recovering from both ankle and hernia surgery from back in October. There is hope for him to return by Opening Day, but if they’re still speculating now, chances are he won’t be. When healthy he can provide solid pop and he should be worth a look in the the later rounds of your draft as the job is still his. But Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald will handle the job until he returns. Nothing special about McDonald, fantasy-wise, but if you’re looking for cheap speed, just remember what Bloomquist did at the start of last season.
Third Base
It was quite the year for super-sub Ryan Roberts in 2011 as he earned himself regular playing time and hit 19 home runs with 65 RBI while stealing 18 bases. In fact, it was such a strong year for him that the D-backs have him slotted in as their regular third baseman now. At 31 years of age, I don’t see an improvement in power or speed, but a 15-15 is definitely within reach. He knows how to draw a walk, so if he just improves his contact rate and gets a little luck in the BABIP department (just .275 last year), then he can bring that average up. If you miss out on the top 10 third sackers, he’s definitely someone to keep on your radar….especially with his multi-position eligibility.
Outfielders
With the addition of Jason Kubel to an already solid group that includes Soon-to-be MVP candidate Justin Upton and 20-20 threat Chris Young, Arizona has a solid outfield for power.
Before he battled injuries last season, Kubel was a pretty safe bet for a minimum of 20 home runs. He’s definitely got the strength to continue that trend, especially in hitter -friendly Chase Field, but I think you might have to sacrifice some batting average these days. He used to be a consistent .270 guy who even hit .300 in 2009, but his K% has steadily increased every year for the last four seasons and that could be a bit of a red flag.
There’s really not much more you can say about Upton that his stats don;t already tell you. He’s a late first round selection, a dream in keeper leagues (just 24 years old), and seems to have put the concerns about his shoulder to bed. Last season he hit a career high 31 home runs, hit .289 and swiped 21 bases, all while reducing his K% and actually increasing his BB/K ratio. He still makes less than average contact and has seen an increase in his SwStr%, but he’s still putting in quality at bats. He might see a little spike in strikeouts next season, but there’s no reason to think he can’t post another 30-20 season.
Though he’s now posted back to back 20-20 seasons, Young continues to slip in drafts due to his batting average issues. In the last three years, .257 was the highest he hit and finished a season as low as .212 in 2009. What’s so frustrating is that it’s not like Young is up there hacking away. His swing-percentages, both inside and outside the zone are below the major league average. He’s just not making consistent contact when he’s up there. It doesn’t look like the trend is changing anytime soon, so while you can grab yourself some solid counting stats, you’ll have to contend with an unbelievable poor average. For me, I can put up with a weak average if the guy is hitting 40 bombs, but he’s not. And the stolen bases don’t really make up for it as that’s a stat on the rise across MLB anyway.
Bench
We’ve already looked at Bloomquist and McDonald as the primary infield back-ups. They’ll make appearances during the beginning of the season while we wait on Drew to return to the shortstop position. Obviously Bloomquist is the one with a little more value what with his speed and all. He’ll get some early playing time and should be used as the primary pinch runner, so another 20 steals might not be out of the question.
Lyle Overbay is still lingering as a first base back-up, but unless Goldschmidt has some crazy debilitating injury, he’ll have no value.
In the outfield, the D-Backs will go with Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie as their primary back-ups. Parra has a little bit of speed upside and might be able to help with the batting average, but only if he’s getting regular time. And Gillespie is probably best left alone. He’d be the second option if anything happened to a starter and has minimal upside to begin with anyway.
Pitching
Starting Pitching
The Diamondbacks have themselves a very formidable front three in Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and newcomer Trevor Cahill, and also have a relatively safe back end as well with journeyman southpaw Joe Saunders and upstart Josh Collmenter. They’ll be a force throughout the season and are built to compete in short series against the likes of the Giants and the Phillies. They tend to be a little underrated at time, mostly due to the dimensions of Chase Field, but they can easily provide quality totals for your fantasy rotation.
Kennedy had himself an outstanding year in 2011 posting up 21 wins with tasty 2.88 ERA. He increased his strikeout rate, lowered his walk total and really put together a season that merited all the hype he received from the Yankees before the trade sent him west. Now some will point to his fly ball rate and his 3.22 FIP, but while there will likely be some regression for Kennedy this year, it won’t be that much. Let others criticize and pass on him. That should help keep his price down a bit. He’s coming into his third full year, a year where things really click for most starters, and even with a slight uptick in ratios, he’s still going to produce outstanding numbers. He’s not a fantasy ace, but he’s easily one of the best #2 options out there.
Hudson also had himself a solid 2011 season, his first full season in the bigs. Though his K/9 dropped, he was able to reduce the walks and ultimately increase his K/BB ratio to a 3.38 last year. Even better was the 3.28 FIP to go with the 3.43 ERA which obviously means that his totals were exactly as they should have been. It wasn’t like there was a ton of defensive luck. While he should be a decent option, atleast to start the season, there has to be some concern about his huge innings increase last year — the Verducci Effect. Now there have been starters who have bucked the trend (Madison Bumgarner of the Giants last year, for one), but it should be a concern as you build your rotation. You should have depth if you can. Watch how he performs in the first half as he could be a prime “sell-high” candidate by the end of June.
Several owners were burned last year by Cahill’s performance…or lack thereof, should we say. After posting an 18-8 record with a 2.97 ERA in 2010, Cahill struggled last season and finished the year with a mark of 4.16 and just 11 wins. He has raised his K/9 steadily over the last three years, but with an FIP consistently above 4.00, people remain down on him and aren’t sure just how trustworthy he is as a fantasy starter. Personally, I think he’s got the potential of being this year’s Kennedy. The move to the NL will help the strikeout rate and the switch to hitter-friendly Chase Field won’t have as much of an impact on his as he is a true ground ball specialist. In fact, he should fare even better with a stronger defense behind him. He’s slipping in drafts at a rapid rate so enjoy him as a nice late round bargain. He is sure to surpass his draft position in value this year.
As for the back end of the rotation, there isn’t a whole lot to say. Saunders is an ok option for streaming, so long as the matchup is favorable, and Collmenter is still pretty green. I doubt that I would trust Saunders in my rotation, but I would certainly give Collmenter a look. He keeps the walks down, which is big for a youngster and he could increase his strikeout rate as he gets even more comfortable out there. His over-the-top delivery is a bit strange, but it seems to induce more pop ups which is good, but he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, so be interested, but don’t feel bad if someone grabs him first.
Closer/Relievers
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen is pretty well set and not that far off from where it was last season. J.J. Putz will continue in his role as the team’s closer with David Hernandez and Brad Ziegler as the primary set up men. The team also brought in Takashi Saito to add some depth. While Putz should remain a solid option on draft day, his injury history is definitely something to note. He’s been bothered by elbow issues over the last few years and missed some time due to the same issue last year. Hernandez did an admirable job filling in and will likely take on that same role if necessary, but adding Saito, a former closer himself, will definitely give Buck Showalter some options.
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