Position Players
Catchers
There’s no real nice way to say it other than that the fantasy upside for Rays’ catchers continues to be bleak, at best. Coming into camp, the choice is between 36 year old, light hitting Jose Molina who is best known for his defense and 27 year old minor leaguer Jose Lobaton who is, for lack of a better way to say it, pretty old for a guy with just 643 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. There’s definitely more power upside in Lobaton but we’re really just looking at the difference between 3 or 4 home runs and 8 to 10. And that’s actually being generous in the estimation. Maybe if you’re in a two-catcher AL-only league you can find some value, but other than that, this situation is best left alone.
Infield
The only real locks that we’ve got here are that Evan Longoria will man the hot corner and newly signed Carlos Pena will handle duties over at first. Longoria is a must-own again, between his talents and how thin the third base position has become, and will be a mid to late first round choice based on recent ADP reports. His power came back last season as he was healthy and while the average was in the toilet, a lot can be attributed to his unusually low BABIP. Expect the power to continue and watch that average climb this year. Fingers crossed for SBs.
As for Pena, I think we all know what he’s about — solid OBP driven by a high BB%, far too many strikeouts, but solid power. The drop off in overall power is a bit disconcerting, but for a low-end first baseman who can still hit you close to 30 HR, he’s not the worst in the world. He’s like a poor man’s Adam Dunn before Dunn went to crap last year.
The middle infield is where things get a little tricky. You’ve got the trio of mediocrity in Sean Rodriguez, Elliot Johnson and Reid Brignac and then you’ve got Ben Zobrist. Now Zobrist should be a full-timer, but whether it’s at second base or in the outfield (we’ll get to that in the section below) is the question. If Zobrist gets most of his work at second base, then you’ve got the other three all vying for playing time.
Rodriguez seems to be the guy with the most upside for power, but has yet to deliver on any of his potential. He did manage to improve his walk rate while lowering his strikeouts last season, but his power was just meh and his average took a fairly significant hit. I had been pretty high on him, but his ineffectiveness against right handed pitching was a big downer for manager Joe Maddon and limited him to platoon status. He got the lion’s share of ABs when Longoria went down last year, but his overall production was pretty disappointing. The only way he’ll have more value other than on a short-term waiver wire basis is if he wins the shortstop job outright. If he doesn’t, then he’s late round bench material at best.
Johnson and Brignac are in the same boat as Rodriguez, only with one oar short. Brignac has been a cautionary tale for health problems for his entire career and it would take a miracle for him to earn a full time job over the other two while Johnson has done little to prove that he belongs. Neither has strong power potential, neither has much in the way of speed and both are probably looking at utility positions, one up in the bigs and one down in Triple-A. And even if Zobrist lands in right field (see below) and there is an opening at second, chances are, neither will be strong enough to carry the load themselves and both will be need to fill in.
FANTASY UPDATE: So the Rays have signed infielder Jeff Keppinger to add to this already messy situation. They’re either going to use him as a utility infielder and push both Johnson and Brignac to the minors or they are returning Joyce (see below) to 4th outfielder status. With Zobrist on the team flip-flopping between right field and second base, it doesn’t seem like Keppinger or anyone in that utility role is going to see much consistent time. Of course, then there’s the fact that Maddon doesn’t like Rodriguez…
Outfield
Let’s start with right field first as it has the biggest impact on what happens in the infield. The Rays have two, maybe even three options here in Zobrist, Matt Joyce, and possibly Brandon Guyer. Zobrist is going to play no matter what — whether it’s out here in right or over at second. If he stays in the infield, then Joyce, who had a pretty strong 2011 campaign with a career high .277-19-75, would likely get the job. However, given his struggles against left-handed pitching, Maddon would likely continue to rotate things around. Against southpaws you’re probably looking at Joyce on the bench with Zobrist handling the work out here in right. This is probably the most likely scenario.
Guyer is a dark horse to make the team right now. In just 388 at bats down in pitcher friendly Triple-A Durham, Guyer hit .312 with 14 HR and then when he received a late season call-up, he responded with a pair of dingers in 41 at bats. His K% spiked a bit and his avergae was below the Mendoza line, but that’s to be expected for a career minor leaguer in such a small sample size. In all likelihood, he’ll end up back in Triple-A for most of the year.
Left field, this season will be patrolled by the highly touted Desmond Jennings. The Rays had no problem watching Carl Crawford walk out the door, knowing what they had in this 25 year old. He’s got 15-20 HR power with outstanding speed and the ability to post 40-plus stolen bases this season. He’ll need to lower those strikeouts to improve that batting average, but he’s got a soli dwalk rate and should be one of the more highly coveted speedsters given his OBP potential.
B.J. Upton returns again to take on center field. Save for the batting average, which gets destroyed by a ridiculous 25% K-rate, Upton delivered a fantastic season last year when he finally broke the 20 HR barrier again (23 to be exact) while also swiping 36 bases. While he may not hit that 20 HR mark again this year, he is still more than capable of 15-plus with another 40 steals. The interesting thing about Upton right now, though, is that he is a free agent after this season. The Rays have shopped him before and have failed to get anything done, but rather than risk losing him for nothing, they might accelerate things and settle for less than they normally would have wanted. And what makes it even more interesting is the rumor that the Red Sox are now interested in bringing him in to play shortstop. It’s still just speculation, but certainly something to think about. If Upton can regain that middle infield eligibility he had when he first burst on the scene in 2006, his value would certainly skyrocket. Keep your eye on this situation as the season progresses.
Designated Hitter
The Rays brought in Luke Scott on a one year, $5M deal to handle DH duties, but I’m definitely skeptical of his abilities right now. First off, he struggles against left-handed pitching, something that Joe Maddon has never been shy about platooning people for. Then there’s the park factor differential between Camden Yards and Tropicana Field. For left-handed hitters, you could be looking at a potential 25% drop off in power which would destroy any value Scott may have had. And finally, there are the shoulder injuries that Scott has dealt with over the last couple of years. You take all of that and wrap it up together and you’ve got more of a cautionary tale than you do a sleeper. Be wary of him this year.
Bench
For the infield, the bench could already be set based on the middle infield speculation above. S-Rod, Johnson and Brignace should make up the bench with an outside chance that Russ Canzler gets a crack at a job this spring. Again, they’re only as valuable as their playing time permits and if you are expecting to see Zobrist at second base for much of the time, then these guys are waiver fodder, at best.
In the outfield, you’re looking at the return of Sam Fuld. He had a great start to the season last year, garnering a ton of playing time from Maddon, but that faded rather quickly. He’s got good speed and some veteran know-how, but is really better suited for a bench role as the 4th outfielder.
Pitchers
Starting Pitchers
The rotation for the Rays is pretty much a done deal right now. David Price will return as the staff ace and number one starter and should be treated as such in fantasy drafts. He’s a top 10 pitcher who won’t turn 27 until August and has increased his K/BB ratio from 1.89 to 3.46 over the last three seasons. You can probably expect more of the same and should look for him in the mid to late third round of your draft.
The Rays number two is James Shields again. What a year he had in 2011, huh? Career best in wins, strikeouts, ERA, innings pitched? Hell, even his FIP and xFIP were the best they’ve ever been. He looked incredibly strong and gave the team no reason to do anything but pick up his option. But really, where is he going from here? He’s 30 years old and has thrown five consecutive seasons of 200-plus innings. Is he some sort of late bloomer who is like a fine wine or have we seen the best we’re ever going to see from him? Personally, I think it’s the latter. I’m not saying that the drop-off is going to be catastrophic, but I’m not payin gfor last year’s totals and neither should you. He’ll make for a decent middle of the rotation type starter for your fantasy team, but you cannot rely on him to be your staff ace.
After that it looks like the Rays are going to put their faith in the rookie hands of lefty Matt Moore. If you don’t know who Moore is by now, then you must be immune to the hype machine in the fantasy world. This guy is on the top of everyone’s list for rookie pitchers. Granted, it’s justified. He whipped through the minor leagues posting double digit K/9 totals and his ERA only got better the more he pitched and the higher the level. He got a cup of coffee with the Rays last last year and it even earned him a roster spot in the ALDS. He’s definitely going to be something this year, but be careful in the draft. I did an article for Mock Draft Central the other day, looking at early risers and fallers in ADP, and if you think you’ll be able to wait on Moore, think again. He’s already seen a 34.8% increase in his ADP over the last two weeks and is on the verge of cracking the top 100 overall. If you want him, you’re going to have to pay for him. And personally, I have a hard time trusting a rookie that much that I would bypass a more proven arm or a solid bat to get him.
Rounding out the rotation then is Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann and possibly even Wade Davis. Rumors have the Rays shopping Davis around, so it could be a moot point, but for now, the back end of the rotation is worth monitoring.
Hellickson is most likely going to grab that 4th starter’s job after a decent debut last season. His numbers look a bit off as he posted an outstanding ERA with an FIP that was nearly two full points higher, and his K/BB ratio was way off from his career totals in the minor leagues and his debut from the year before. Still, growing pains are to be expected, especially considering the fact that he pitches in one of the hardest hitting divisions in all of baseball. I would look for him in the later rounds and expect a bit of an improvement across the board. His ERA will spike a bit, but his peripherals should indicate a stronger pitcher on the rise.
The battle between Davis and Niemann should be interesting to watch. Davis is now a third year starter and that seems to be the time when they show whether they’ve got it or they don’t. In his second year he dropped in ERA and K/9, but he did reduce his walk rate which indicates better command of his pitches. Niemann, on the other hand, had some ups and downs last year. At times he looked unhittable, but then there were games where he could barely make it out of the third inning. He did spend some time on the DL wiht a back problem, so perhaps that was a contributing factor, but the Rays did not put much faith in him down the stretch when they made their playoff push. Keep an eye on things here.
Relievers/Closers
Plenty of people, me included, were surprised last season when Kyle Farnsworth held onto the closer’s job all season long. He posted a 5-1 record with 25 saves and managed both a decent ERA and a fairly respectable K/9. He certainly benefited from a 50.6% ground ball rate, but perhaps that’s what he’s turning into now. An increased use of his slider and cutter are helping him tremendously, but while it might be hard for him to duplicate his 2011 success, he’s given us no reason to believe that he won’t.
Waiting in the wings still are Jake McGee, Joel Peralta and J.P. Howell. Given the type of manager Maddon is, if Farnsworth does falter, Howell will probably get first crack although McGee, in my opinion, still has the best stuff of the three.
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