2012 Fantasy Baseball Team Previews: Toronto Blue Jays

Position Players

Catchers

The Jays found some decent success last season with their decision to give J.P. Arencibia the opportunity to be the everyday catcher and that trend continues this season.  If you’re looking for good power from behind the dish and are willing to sacrifice batting average, then Arencibia makes for a solid choice.  There is easy 20-HR power, but with a K% that will likely still hover in the 25% range and a minimal walk rate, you’re looking at some rough pumpkins in the average/OBP department.

Jeff Mathis moves from the Angels over to the Jays this year and is now working as a back-up — exactly what he’s supposed to be.  Mathis has solid defensive skills, which is why Mike Scioscia was always so high on him, but offensively, which means “in fantasy”, he stinks. No power, no speed and a lousy batting average.  He’s not even worth a look in two-catcher AL-only leagues.  Stay away.

Infield

The Jays’ infield looks exactly the same as it did when the season ended in 2011.  Adam Lind will continue to play first base, Kelly Johnson at second, Yunel Escobar will handle shortstop duties, and highly-touted rookie Brett Lawrie will be at the hot corner.  From a fantasy perspective, it’s a pretty decent infield to explore.

Lind had himself a tremendous breakout season in 2009 but followed it up with a, relatively speaking, disappointing 2010.  Last season though, he showed that there could be some sort of a happy medium.  The batting average still isn’t all that great at .251, but 26 HR in an injury-plagued season that saw him appear in just 122 games means that the power is for real and Lind should be one of those underrated first basemen that slip through drafts.  According to recent ADP reports, he’s currently the 14th first baseman off the board in mixed leagues, being selected 147th overall which is 12th round in a standard 12 team league.

With the steadily increasing strikeout rate, Johnson’s stock continues to fall despite showing 20-HR power as a second baseman.  In fact, even with so much power potential, Johnson is still coming of the board as the 17th best second baseman according to the most recent ADP reports.  He’s obviously a better option in deep mixed leagues if you can offset the batting average concerns, but I don’t think he’s that awful a choice in AL-only leagues.  Power with double digit steals?  I’ll take that if he can pull the average up to a high .250′s/low .260 mark.

Escobar certainly makes for an interesting choice at shortstop this season.  He rebounded nicely in 2010 and returned to his 10-15 HR ways, and it doesn’t seem like he’s as hated in Toronto as he was in Atlanta.  Hopefully, that is.  If he can duplicate last season, something that really shouldn’t be too difficult if he stays healthy all year, he’ll be a solid option in mixed leagues.  He’s not too high on people’s lists which should help you get him for a bargain rate which would be very helpful considering how thin the position is right now.

And finally, there’s Lawire over at third.  What more can you say about this guy?  People love him.  Absolutely love him.  Solid mix of power and speed, put up great numbers in the minors and produced as expected when he received his call-up last year.  He’s projected to be 20/20 this year (20/30 by Bill James!!) and should find his way towards the top of the third basemen rankings by season’s end.  Already  5th in ADP for third sackers.  Slightly more favorable on the position eligibility last year, but given the lack of depth at third, him losing second base eligibility isn’t going to upset anyone.  Draft with confidence.

Outfield

The position lock-downs here are Jose Bautista in right and Colby Rasmus in center.  Bautista is the total no-brainer as he will again be highly coveted on draft day.  Makes him look even better that he’s been tested as often as he has and so far all looks clean.  But while Bautista is the Jays right fielder, you’d  be a fool to pass him up as a third baseman in fantasy.  With 25 games at the hot corner last year, he’s got the primo eligibility and should be drafted as such.  If you don’t, well then I want to join a league with you!

Rasmus, on the other hand, has some question marks.  His numbers were barely passable in St. Louis but then went completely downhill once he ended up in Toronot.  In fact, he his just .173 through 35 games and ended up on most fantasy benches for the stretch run.  He’s more than capable of hitting 20-plus home runs and stealing double digit bases, but he needs to prove that he can be consistent.  He’s got an ADP of 210, but there are a number of other guys with lower ranks that I would much rather have.  If you’re a believer, then you won’t consider it a reach, but if you’re not enamored with his potential, you’re headed for disappointment.

Now left field is a bit up in the air for the Jays right now.  You’ve got Eric Thames, Travis Snider and Rajai Davis all looking for at bats this season.  Davis has the speed, but finds it difficult to maintain a satisfactory OBP, Snider has the power potential but can’t stop striking out, but Thames seems to only come up short in the experience department.  He’s got solid power potential, as evidenced by his 12 HR and .193 ISO in just under 400 at bats, and seems to have a little better plate discipline than the other two.  Still, the Jays already have plenty of power and are really in need of guys with high OBP rates.  Look for this battle to go all spring and likely spill into the season as well.  Perhaps Davis gets more time playing center if Rasmus continues to stink, but that will be a wait and see…

Designated Hitter

Welcome to E5….one of my favorite nicknames that the player to which it refers probably hates more than anything.  And that’s why Edwin Encarnacion is better suited to DH.  Because he thinks he can actually play defense.  He’ll actually fill the same role he had last year — primarily a DH, but will spell guys at first and third throughout the year.  And that, actually, is what makes him draftable.  Yes, it would be great to see him hit close to 20 HR with a .270-ish average, but even better with his eligibility at the corners (25 games at 1B, 36 at 3B).

Bench

We’ve already covered who the back-up outfielder will be in the right field section, so no need to re-hash.  Mike McCoy will probably be the primary utility guy as he can play both short and the outfield.  But then there’s also Omar Vizquel who signed a minor league deal and got an invite to spring training.  Vizquel is there more for his mentoring abilities than anything else.  The Jays were smart bringing him in to let guys like Lawrie and Escobar watch how a true professional handles himself.  But he won’t have anything in the way of fantasy value this year.

Pitchers

Starters

Given the way the Rodgers Centre plays to hitters, the rotation doesn’t have a whole lot of overall promise for fantasy owners this year.  Ricky Romero is the staff ace, and while he had a great season last year, winning 15 games and posting a 2.92 ERA, the peripherals make you think he played just a bit over his head.  With a 4.20 FIP and a K/9 that dropped to 7.12, there have to be some questions.  He is primarily a ground ball pitcher (54.6% for his career), but when the ball was up in the air, it was clearing the fences — 13.2% HR/FB.  I still think he’s got tremendous talent, but as support staff, not an ace.  I’d be a little wary of his 86 ADP.  That might be a littl etoo high for what you’ll end up getting.

From there, the Jays staff consists of Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, Henderson Alvarez and Kyle Drabek.  Yup, that’s five guys, three unproven, battling for four spots.  Morrow and Cecil are probably already locked in.  Morrow is an interesting talent — great K/9, solid FIP in the wake of a rough looking ERA, but a few too many walks.  He’s a fly ball pitcher which hurts, given his park and those of the rest of the AL BEast, but most of all, he struggles when he pitches from the stretch.  When there are no men on base, he’s got a .273 BABIP.  When he’s got men on — .335.  With men in scoring position — .355.  Big red flag there, especially if you’re worried about ERA and WHIP.  Unless he can turn those numbers around, there’s trouble brewing.

Cecil’s not much to look at with his weak K/9, weaker K/BB ratio and bloated ERA.  He’s had his moments, but overall, you can easily do better.  McGowan is still trying to make it back from surgery and is fairly unreliable right now.  Alvarez needs some seasoning down in Triple-A, but there’s promise, given his ground ball rates.  And finally there’s Drabek — tons of promise, lauded in the Phillies farm system, but he’s been struggling big time ever since he came to Toronto.  Unless he snaps out of it soon, likely in Triple-A for most of this year, he could end up as yet another bust prospect.

Relievers/Closers

The Jays made a move here in the offseason and picked up Sergio Santos from the White Sox in an effort to solidify their closer’s role.  His 3.55 ERA wasn’t much to look at, but he did have a 2.87 FIP and hopefully the defense is a little better behind him this year than it was back in Chicago.  He also had an outstanding 13.07 K/9 which helped offset some of the walks and still end up with a 3.17 K/BB ratio.  He’s primarily a ground ball pitcher, not that park factors have much to do with here given the way both U.S. Cellular and Rodgers play to hitters, and he should continue to develop into a solid closing option.

While the leash for Santos will be plenty long, the Jays did cover themselves by signing Francisco Cordero as the primary set up man.  We’ve seen Cordero’s track record in Cincinnati, so we know that he is somewhat capable to take over the job if necessary, but for now, just consider him a vulture who will have a hard time getting a meal.

Tagged as: 2012 fantasy baseball team previes, Adam Lind, ADP, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Brett Lawrie, catchers, Colby Rasmus, Dustin McGowan, Edwin Encarnacion, Eric Thames, fantasy baseball, Francisco Cordero, Henderson Alvarez, infielders, Jeff Mathis, Jose Bautista, JP Arencibia, Kelly Johnson, Kyle Drabek, Mike McCoy, Omar Vizquel, outfielder, Rajai Davis, Ricky Romero, Sergio Santos, starting pitchers, Toronto Blue Jays, Travis Snider, Yunel Escobar