With Phillies fans dreaming of a Roy Halladay 20 win season, Mariners fans hoping for success with Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins and Red Sox Nation still clamoring over the signings of John Lackey and (gulp!) Mike Cameron, it is the Yankees fans, my friends, that have had the most bountiful Christmas in all of the majors. Coming off of a magical 27th World Championship, the Bronx Bombers have been wheeling and dealing in the MLB trade market to collect two of the top prizes in this MLB off-season. The first, as we’ve already discussed is the addition of Curtis Granderson to an already stacked lineup of hitters. Then they brought back Nick Johnson to be their designated hitter. And today, the Yanks have solidified an already steadfast rotation by trading for and bringing back another former Yankee, Javier Vazquez from the Braves. Really? Vazquez? To be added to a rotation that includes CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte? Just an insane foursome…in any league. So while I’ve already broken down the Granderson deal in fantasy terms, let’s get to the Vazquez trade…
The Atlantas Braves Trade RHP Javier Vazquez and LHP Boone Logan to the New York Yankees for OF Melky Cabrera, LHP Mike Dunn, and RHP Arodys Vizcaino
So Javy Vazquez gets another go around with the Yankees, huh? For those that don’t remember, Vazquez, after proving to be a workhorse for the Montreal Expos, was brought in to New York back in 2004. After posting a sub-4.00 ERA for three straight years while throwing 220+ innings each season, Vazquez came to the Big Apple with very high expectations. The year started off very well for him and he finished the first half with a 10-5 record and a 3.57 ERA. He also had 95 Ks in 118 innings and was holding opposing batters to a .233 average.
But then the second half started and things began to unravel. He logged only 79.1 innings and finished the second half with a 4-5 record and a 6.92 ERA, pushing his season totals to 14-10 with a 4.91 ERA. Save for his first 2 years called up in Montreal, it was his worst season to date. Batters finished the year hitting .255 against him and he gave up a career high 33 home runs. The 150 Ks was a career low and his K/BB ratio was the lowest it had been since 1999. All in all, it wasn’t the best of seasons for the veteran righty.
So what does Vazquez’ fantasy baseball projection look like for 2010 coming back to New York? Will baseball fantasy cirlces be buzzing come draft day or will they dismiss him as yet another guy who just can’t seem to pitch in the big bad city? I hate to ride the fence, but I do, in fact, sit somewhere in the middle.
While I think the make-up of this Yankees team is a lot different than it was 5 or 6 seasons ago. While the play on the field is stronger, the clubhouse is also a lot lighter than it has been in years. There’s more playfulness as evidence by Burnett’s shaving cream pies and the Yankees seem to have more character than before. The goal is still to win the World Series, but they’re having fun doing it. That alone, should alleviate a lot of the pressure I’m sure he felt coming to the team in 2004, just one year removed from losing the Series to the Florida Marlins. But will that be enough?
People are going to be quoting a lot of Vazquez’ numbers from last season, but you, as a fantasy baseball owner, need to look past that. Yes, he had a phenomenal season, posting a 15-10 record with a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 238 Ks in just over 219 innings. But even I, an owner of Vazquez in a keeper league, know that 2010 is going to be a lot more than just looking at last season’s totals. In fact, I’ll probably be downplaying what I’m about to say as I try to deal him here in the offseason.
First, let’s talk about the switch from the NL to the AL. Not a great move for a pitcher’s ratios and thus a tough call for fantasy baseball. In his 4 years in the American League, Vazquez only posted an ERA below 4.00 once (3.74) and every other year, the lowest his owners saw was 4.67. His Ks were also fairly low in comparison to his other totals. The simple change from throwing to a pitcher to a designated hitter can do alarming damage to a pitcher’s statistics. Lineups in the AL are built stronger because of the DH thus making it very difficult for a pitcher to catch a break knowing that if he allows this guy to reach base, he can always get the pitcher out next.
Next, let’s talk about the ballpark. As we’ve seen from last years statistics, the new Yankee Stadium is definitely a hitter’s park. That short porch in right field makes lefties salivate just at the notion of stepping into the batter’s box and that supposed jet stream that comes into play during the warm summer months seems to be more fact than myth. Granted, he’s brought his HRA (home run allowed) total down under 30 since he left Arizona in 2005, but it’s back to battling the likes of the Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays and Orioles, teams that have vastly improved their overall hitting in the last 5 years.
But I don’t want to sit here and bash Vazquez to you. I’m just trying to give so some fantasy baseball tips on a player who may very well be in your plans for your 2010 fantasy baseball strategy. I think Vazquez will actually be a valuable asset for fantasy baseball teams this year. He’ll likely post 16 wins, give you a little more than 200 Ks and probably have an ERA hovering around 4.00. Definitely not too shabby. He won’t be your fantasy ace, but as far as a support staff goes, he’s up there with the best of them.
Now as far as the rest of the trade goes, the only other player that should have a decent 2010 fantasy baseball impact is Melky Cabrera. So long as the Barves bring him out regularly, there’s no reason why Melky can’t make the necessary adjustments to the NL game and find success. The problem is, right now, that the Braves still have a glut of outfielders and it doesn’t look like Cabrera has any guarantees. He’s definitely got a great shot, but with Nate McLouth in center, Melky will have to battle with the likes of Garret Anderson, Matt Diaz and Jordan Schafer come spring time. If he finds success, then there’s no reason to expect anything less than 12-15 HR with a .270 average. You might see a little bump in his SB total in the NL, so that could be a nice bonus.
On another note, with the move of Cabrera to Atlanta, expect the Yankees to step up their hunt for another outfielder. There’s a part of me that would like them to put Granderson in left and keep Brett Gardner in center, but I doubt the Yanks will leave it at that. Expect to see someone like Mark DeRosa in pinstripes soon, or better yet….possibly even Jason Bay.
As for the rest of the guys in the trade, it looks like middle relief and the minor leagues. Dunn might have the best chance to start the season in the bigs, but only as a lefty specialist. The rest, maybe next year…or the year after.
Remember, Rotobuzz.com is your number one choice for free fantasy baseball advice, tips and insights. I’ll have my 2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings up just after the holidays and do a full fantasy baseball analysis to help work up a comprehensive fantasy baseball strategy for the upcoming season.
Eat, sleep and dream baseball; that’s what I do. Good luck, happy holidays, and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
Loading ...
{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
Hmmmm. You accidentally left Nick Johnson off the latest Buzz Poll.