Do MLB Rookie of the Year Awards Over-Inflate Fantasy Value?

     I’ll start this off with a very hearty congratulations to both Oakland A’s closer Andrew Bailey and Florida Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan for taking the 2009 Rookie of the Year honors in the AL and NL, respectively.  Both had tremendous seasons, and while some folks are crying for Tommy Hanson, J.A. Happ, Elvis Andrus and Gordon Beckham, you can’t deny the success of each player given the way each started the year and the situations in which they excelled.  Both, in my opinion are very deserving.  But how will their 2010 seasons pan out, and will fantasy owners find success with them in 2010?

     Coming into the season, the A’s were looking at both Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler as their probable closer options for the season, but when Devine’s arm troubles led to Tommy John surgery and Ziegler’s poor outings and bout with pneumonia forced the team to investigate other possibilities, manager Bob Geren turned the job over to Bailey, a young righty from New Jersey who had pitched only 8 innings above the Double-A level.  The results were fantastic as Bailey finished the season with a 6-3 record, a 1.88 ERA, and a 0.88 WHIP;  not to mention he had a 3.8 K/BB ratio.  For the year, Bailey pitched a total of 83 1/3 innings and had 26 saves in 30 save opportunities for one of the worst teams in baseball.

     Coghlan wasn’t a primary option for the Marlins in 2009 either.  The team began the season with an outfield mix of Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, Alfredo Amezaga and early ROY favorite, Cameron Maybin.  But as we know, Maybin was a bust, Amezaga was more suited to be a utility infielder and Hermida was in and out with his usual assortment of injuries.  Coghlan, who started the season in the minors was primarily a second baseman, but was soon switched to the outfield with the hopes that he could join the big club and help fill in the gaps.  The results were obviously a resounding success as he finished the season with a batting line of .321-84-9-47-8.  He also committed only 5 errors while playing a new position which ranked him in the top 10 amongst all left fielders.

     But so now where do we, as fantasy owners, go from here?  Where do we rank guys like Bailey and Coghlan with their peers?  They both  had great rookie seasons and each will deserve strong consideration when formulating your draft strategy for 2010.  But how much consideration do they merit?  Does the fact that they won Rookie of the Year awards put them above the average player at their respective positions?

     If we look at the most recent winners of the awards, say over the last 10 years, you might be surprised to see that just because they proved themselves in their inaugural seasons, it doesn’t necessarily mean they are great options down the road.

     The color coding on the chart above should say it all, but just in case, you’ll see that during the follow up season, the stats highlighted in red indicate a drop in production, the blue shows a lateral or relatively insignificant increase in totals while those highlighted in green show a player’s increase in production the year after receiving the honors.  As you can see, a player’s increase in production is more the exception than it is the norm.  And even in some cases of increase, say Evan Longoria as the prime example, the increase does not come without a few hitches here and there.

     While Longoria’s overall totals surpassed those of his rookie season, his 3 month statistical swoon in June, July and August caused serious concerns for his owners and probably put him on the trading block in more than just a few leagues.  His hot start in April and May, coupled with a strong finish in September helped pad his numbers, but during those dog days of summer, he was struggling with the best…er, I mean worst…of them.

     Similar concerns (mostly for keeper leagues) can be said for Dustin Pedroia who, while he put up incredible numbers in his second year, regressed big time in his third season.  He was undoubtedly taken amongst the top second basemen in 2009 drafts and his owners were burned when he failed to live up to his 2008 production levels.   

     So with this information, how do we assess 2010 fantasy value to players like Bailey and Coghlan?  For me, I have to put them in the same category as players like Huston Street, Bobby Crosby, and (gulp!) Angel Berroa.  It’s not that I think they’re both going into the tank in 2010, but more that you really need to hedge your expectations.  The last thing you want to do is get caught up in the Rookie of the Year hype and burn a higher than normal draft pick or waste extra bid dollars.

     While Bailey clearly took control of the job and never looked back, you have to account for the fact that Brad Ziegler will still be around and possibly even Joey Devine in the second half of the season.  Ziegler closed out for the team in 2008 and had it not been for the pneumonia, he may have righted the ship and continued to close games for the hapless A’s.  And as for Devine, well, he was the favorite for saves going into 2009 and we’ve all seen how strong players have come back from Tommy John surgery these days.  I think the job is definitely Bailey’s to lose in 2010, but with vultures looming and minimal save opportunities, I lump in the the middle (and possibly even lower-middle) of the pack.

     As for Coghlan, his situation and fantasy appeal is much different so you definitely have to be careful and pay attention.  As a corner outfielder goes, Coghlan does not rank too high up as he doesn’t have the coveted home run power you need, nor does he steal many bases.  His batting average was solid, but if he’s feeling the pressure of the award hype, then he could find himself hitting 20-30 points lower.  A .290 hitter isn’t too shabby, but if it comes with single digit HR and minimal RBI and SB, then it’s not so special after all.

     But the one interesting aspect for Coghlan is his position eligibility, and this is where you have to be careful.  Last season, he qualified at second base in most leagues because that was his primary position in the minors.  Depending on your league rules, he still may be an option there (he did play 1 game at second for the Fish), and the rumors continue to swirl that the Marlins may be parting ways with Dan Uggla and would use Coghlan as the replacement.  Keeper league snake oil salesmen will likely be shopping him as a Rookie of the Year winner with potential dual eligibility and then start preaching about position scarcity, blah blah blah.  But if you look at last season’s totals, you’ll find that atleast 25 second baseman hit for more power than Coghlan and atleast 20 had more stolen bases.  That makes him as desirable a second baseman as he is an outfielder.  For me, he’s more comparable with Asdrubal Cabrera or Placido Polanco than he is with any of the top second sackers out there.

     Now, again, this is not an exact science and I’m not standing on a soapbox telling you to avoid these guys like the plague.  I’m just telling you to keep it all in perspective and don’t be fooled by the hype that comes with a Rookie of the Year award.  If baseball is a game of averages and statistics, then you have to look at what the numbers from the past dictate.  Players like Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols are extraordinarily special and they don’t come around too often.  Neither Bailey nor Coghlan put up eye-popping numbers in their rookie seasons and there’s nothing in either of their minor league stats that tells me they will hit that super-elite level.  Be careful with them in keeper leagues and when it comes to your 2010 fantasy draft, keep it in perspective — middle to late rounds at best.

Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money next year!!

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