When you’re telling your friends a funny story or a joke, there’s nothing better than a good, solid build-up. You get the energy flowing, they’re enthusiastic, they’re captivated, and the anticipation for the ending becomes unbridled excitement. Well, it works the same in fantasy baseball. The calendar turns to another year, the football season is coming to a close, fantasy baseball magazines start hitting the shelves, Spring Training gets underway, and BAM!!! Your fantasy baseball commissioner sends you an email with a draft date. You’re scouting players, checking free agent movement, reading up on their stats, and getting ready to start putting together your fantasy baseball strategies. Unless they’re also involved, your significant other is probably laughing at you as you likely sound like a first grader with all the excitement.
But if there’s a bit of advice I can pass your way, it’s to not get too caught up in the hype when you’re planning out your draft day targets. The websites and magazines will obviously give you their picks and pans on players and it’s up to you to do the proper research to find out who works for your team and who doesn’t. Sometimes it gets confusing with so many opinions out there, but you eventually find your favorites, check their track records and use them for trusted guidance. But what happens when the player, himself, or his team is part of the hype? You’re looking through the headlines and you see that this hitter came into camp in great shape and it expecting big things from himself this year or that pitcher says his arm hasn’t felt this good in years and is looking forward to the upcoming season. While I can appreciate the player’s enthusiasm, you have to go into it with a certain amount of skepticism. The guys that usually start making the early clucking noises are usually the ones that fantasy GMs over-reach for or spend too much on in their drafts. You don’t want to be that GM. We’ve all been there, so it’s important to learn from other’s mistakes.
So with that, here’s a list of some of the big talkers that are either looking for a little retribution or a little respect. I can throw in my two cents, but ultimately the decision is yours as to who you believe. There are some that I like, but there are plenty that I’m just not buying what they’re selling.
David Ortiz, DH BOS – A new-look, slim and trim Ortiz shed 15 pounds during the offseason and says that he’s ready to get back to hitting the way he did in the past. Manager Terry Francona says he’s impressed and GM Theo Epstein has been chatting it up as well. Plenty of people will be focusing on his 20 HR since July 1st of last year, but all I see is 4 years of declining numbers. While he still may be able to pop 20 HR, he’s not doing much else and you’d be better served with a hitter that will knock out 20 and NOT have a batting average hovering around .220. And as for the weight loss, well, duh. That’s what happens when you come off the juice. No position versatility and a bad average means you can spend your money elsewhere.
Bobby Jenks, RP CHW — Weight loss is all the rage in the offseason as Jenks is another one who walked into camp 20 pounds lighter. Both Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen seem excited, but what separates a guy like Jenks from a guy like Ortiz is the reasoning behind it. Jenks changed his diet and quit drinking alcohol, citing the latter as a major problem in both his personal and professional life. I already did a small write-up about it on the White Sox blog, South Side Swingers, that I do for Fanball.com, so you can check there for my personal feelings. On the fantasy front, I like the fact that Jenks improved on his K-rate last year which was a source of concern the last few seasons and I expect him to continue his progress. The fact that he seems to have an edge over his personal demons shows me his head is in the right place. Maturity is not somethign to be underrated.
Andruw Jones, DH CHW – The White Sox have a lot of enthusiasm coming into camp this year and Jones is another one that is eager to prove something and has the backing of management. Brought in to DH against lefties, Jones has drawn the ire of fans due to his piss poor batting average and his replacement of beloved former Sox like Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome. So to fight back, Jones has come into camp in “the best shape he has been in for years” and is saying all the right things. His dramatic fade into obscurity the past few seasons has me concerned, but becaus ehe won’t cost you much on draft day, I’d consider drafting him late. He’s platoonign right now, but it might just be a matter fo time before he is logging full time ABs. After all, his partner at the postion is Mark Kotsay.
Jimmy Rollins, SS PHI – The Phillie’s 31 year old shortstop is saying that he can and wants to steal 50 bases this year. Do you believe him? I believe that he wants to steal 50 bases, but I have a hard time believing that it will happen. 47 steals in 2008 is the career high and 40 is the average over the last 3 seasons. There are plenty of factors to take into consideration for getting the green light, and while I’m sure Rollins has Charlie Manuel’s blessing each time he gets on base, it’s the declining average over the last 2 years and last season’s drop in OBP that give me pause. Rollins will rightfully be a hot commodity as he remains a top shortstop, but let’s put the 50 swipes on hold for now.
Julio Borbon, OF TEX – Another guy who says he wants to swipe 50 bases this year. What? Is everyone taking a cue from Coco Crisp, the guy who claimed a few years ago that he was going to swipe 60 bases for the Red Sox? Now I firmly believe that Borbon is a much better player than Crisp, but I just can’t use a proclamation like that to justify grabbing a rookie too soon. His performance after his call-up lkast year was outstanding and he coul ddefinitely be one of the league’s top burners in the future. But I worry that the hype is too great right now. If he doesn’t get off to the right start, I can easily see the Rangers trying out Elvis Andrus at the top of the order. I still like Borbon for this year, but just be careful how high you reach.
Stephen Strasburg, SP WAS – If you look up the word ”hype” in the dictionary, there’s likely a picture of Strasburg next to it. This guy has been generating a ridiculous amount of talk for the past year and a half and fantasy owners will be falling all over themselves tryin gto land him. For keeper leaguers, sure, he should be a target somewhere in your draft. Non-keeper leaguers should hold off. Despite Jim Riggleman’s claim that Strasburg was “off the charts” in his throwing session, it is more than likely that he will begin the season in the minors. The Nats added Jason Marquis, Chien-Ming Wang and most recently Livan Hernandez to their rotation, so don’t expect them to be in too much of a rush to get Strasburg’s MLB career going just yet. I’m sure he’ll be up at some point in the second half, maybe sooner, but I’m not spending too high a pick on him right now. For more on Strasburg, you can check out the profile I did on him a little way’s back.
Eric Chavez, 1B/3B OAK – Nothing I hate more than an aging ballplayer who just can’t let go. Chavez came to camp early this spring claiming that he was feeling great and ready to prove that he still has plenty of pop in his bat and can stay healthy all year. While first base is definitely a less physically taxing position, this is Chavez we’re talking about and he can pull, tear or sprain something just by walking out of the dugout. I have zero confidence in him lasting a full season and feel that the A’s, as bad as they’ll be, are better served with Daric Barton or even Chris Carter.
Jason Heyward, OF ATL – I actually re-tweeted (there’s a little piece of me that just died having to say that)something I read the other day with respect to Heyward that came from manager Bobby Cox. Apparently, Cox is now making comparisons between the way Heyward hits the ball and they Hank Aaron used to hit it. Those are some strong words. I am a firm believer that Heyward will end up starting in the Braves outfield at some point this season (maybe with a strong spring, even Opening Day), but comparisons to the great Hank Aaron are going to drive his price way up. Forget about sleeper status here too. Heyward’s another guy I really like and have for some time, but just be careful you don’t reach for him too soon.
Aroldis Chapman, SP CIN — Talk about an unproven guy vaulting up the fantasy baseball player ranking! Yeesh. Cuba’s latest export to the major leagues has been a highly touted player for some time now with his 100 mph fastball. But after his first throwing session today, folks out of the Cincy camp are drooling more than ever and it’s not even over the fastball. Word is that his slider and changeup were the focus of the session and the Reds that are in camp were having a lot of difficulty hitting either pitch. Of course, that word comes from Chris Burke, so take it with a grain of salt. Chapman will be another highly sought after hurler on draft day and there’s actually a real good chance that he starts the season in the majors. Be careful though. We all know that Dusty Baker is horrible when it comes to a pitching staff, so while he might dazzle in the beginning, his arm could fatigue from overuse. I still list him as a decent middle round option if he breaks camp in the rotation.
There are plenty more that are self-promoting and being hyped by their clubs and managers, so just be dilligent and do the proper research. Don’t go biting on a guy just because he says he’s feeling stronger or better than he has in years and don’t go over-reaching for rookies based on February hype. Remember, the real test don’t start until mid-March so just keep that enthusiasm in check.
And as always, keep checking back for updates as all pitchers and catchers (without visa problems) are in camp and preparing for the 2010 season. I’ll be doing updates from both the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues, position battle analysis, and of course, will be adjusting the Buzz’ 2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings and Cheat Sheets throughout the next month and a half. I’ll hit you with more fantasy baseball sleepers, rookie reports, bullpen and fantasy baseball closers updates and all the prep work you’ll need for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft.
Also, as requested by some of the readers, I will be doing cheat sheets for AL and NL-only league sas well. They should be coming out this weekend. Remember, The Fantasy Baseball Buzz is your number one resource for free fantasy baseball advice, insights, player rankings, strategies and all the tools you’ll need to win your fantasy baseball leagues.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!!!
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