Proven talent or the upside of youth — that’s one of the biggest questions as you move along in your fantasy baseball draft, whether it’s a snake-style draft or a fantasy baseball auction. Do you take that 34 year old slugger and try and squeeze one more good year out of him or do you grab someone younger and hope that he takes his game to the next level? I’ve seen both sides of the coin and have tried different fantasy baseball strategies to test theories, and the one I keep coming back to, is the upside of youth. Let’s face it, the injury risk is usually lower, they’re eager, they’re hungry, and if the talent is there, I’d rather see if they can advance as opposed to hoping that my over-the-hill veterans can just stay healthy and productive for another 2 months. Maybe it’s my keeper league mentality, but it plays in non-keeper leagues as well. While the aging slugger can still find his niche in the baseball community, this is a young man’s game. So today I have a pair of lists for you in the spirit of the youth vs age debate. Nothing shocking, but a few names you might want to add to your radar.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Breakouts
Yunel Escobar, SS ATL — Mark it down now. This will be the last season you’ll be able to get Escobar at a bargain. For three seasons, Escobar has not only entrenched himself as the starting shortstop in Atlanta, but he has improved, offensively across the board each year. Yes, his average and OBP dropped after that flashy rookie campaign in 2007, but and average in the .290’s is more than satisfactory for a “low-end” shortstop. But the developing power is what I’m looking at most. While his walks and strikeouts remained almost identical these last 2 years, his power has increased and I feel like he could really push for the 20 HR barrier this year. He might not reach it, but a .295-18-78 season wouldn’t be too upsetting, would it?
Robinson Cano, 2B NYY — Hard to believe there could be more coming, but Cano is just entering his prime and had a sensational breakout at 26 last year. He’s always been a high average guy with burgeoning power, but last season saw him take it to another level as he clubbed 25 HR, a career high, and still kept his average above .320. He could stand to draw a few more walks, but he’s reduced his Ks nicely over the last 2 years and the Yankees couldn’t be happier. Now I’m not guaranteeing that Cano will reach the 30 HR plateau this year, but if he continues to slide under the radar, being surrounded by all those bigger-than-life personalities, he can enjoy another quiet season of high productivity. His totals from last year will drive the price up a little, but he’s still not getting the marquee headlines that players like Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler get.
Ryan Rowland-Smith, SP SEA – I think the fact that the Mariners finally found him a home in the rotation last year, coupled with the additions of Cliff Lee and eventually Erik Bedard, will enable Rowland-Smith to take the next step towards being a solid and reliable fantasy option. While he may not have been a starter the whole way, he is still entering what will be his third full season and he’s definitely made some steady improvements to his game. One of the biggest things that I like is that, after he was awarded a spot int he rotation, his WHIP continued to improve and finished at 1.19 for the season. He definitely gave up fewer hits, but it was the reduction in walks that was so huge. He’s coming in as a third or fourth starter this year, has a spectacular pitcher friendly ballpark to call home, and could give you upwards of 180 solid innings this year.
Casey McGehee, 3B MIL – Another guy whose second half breakout last year could drive up the price a little, but he still remains one of those fly-under-the-radar type players. Supposedly Mat Gamel will have the opportunity to win the job this spring, bu tI’m willing to bet that McGehee remains at the hot corner for the Brew Crew…atleast until Rickie Weeks goes down again. Once that happens, they will likely slide him over to second base which will maintain that eligibility he has over there. Rich with power and decent plate discipline, I think McGehee can continue to improve on his offensive production this year. While the majority of his power comes against righties, he still hits lefties just as well, going .303 vs southpaws last year to .301 vs right handed pitching. Ken Macha has him slated to hit in the 2 hole this year in front of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, so expect some great pitches to hit and some big offensive totals.
Kelly Johnson, 2B ARI — After last year’s disappointing season, Johnson should easily slip through in most drafts, but once people get a look at him in Arizona, his price will certainly go up. Call it a need for a change of scenery, but I see Johnson returning to his 2007 totals when he smacked 16 HR and hit .276 on the season. I’d obviously like to see a better average, but that should come as he moves to a great hitter’s park in Chase Field. His problems last year stemmed from his wrist tendenitis and when he did make it back, he found himself pressing at the plate because Martin Prado was hitting so well in his absence. No one like to get Wally Pipped, so I’m sure Johnson was all wrapped up in his head at the plate. Well, noiw he’s got a clean slate, a new home and a new lease on life…well, career maybe. I like him as a solid low round pick-up.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Breakdowns
Lance Berkman, 1B HOU — OK, so for those that have been following me for years, you had to know I was going to lead with this one. I was right about it last year, and I’m sorry folks, but the guy everyone thinks is my doppleganger is headed for a fall. Since Berkman’s big 2006, his power totals have dropped each and every season. His batting average continues to follow the “every other year” theory, but he’s now gone from 45 to 34 to 29 to 25 home runs. His RBI totals have also slipped with the poor table setters in fron tof him at the top of the Astros order. We also saw him get off to a horiffic start last April and then lost him for 3 weeks in July due to a calf strain. Bottom line is that he is breaking down like almost every other slugger from the so-called steroids era. You might be able to squeeze one more good year out of him, but he’s now become a risk.
Milton Bradley, OF SEA – Jeez Louise! The worst attitude in baseball has one great, Arlington-induced season where he stayed relatively healthy, and people are all over this guy. They can have him. Bradley returned to his usual form last year with the Cubs as he battled injuries and had another outburst that led to the Cubs sending him hom ein September. Cast out of Wrigley??? How the hell does this guy even have a job anymore? The Mariners, moronically picked him up and are giving him an outfield job in Seattle where he will likely do more harm than good if you draft him. Terrible team, terrible park for a hitter, no protection in the lineup…need I go on? Just stay away. Stay very far away.
Wandy Rodriguez, SP HOU — Good ol’ Wandy enjoyed the best year of his career in 2009 and that should drive the price up on him plenty. Well, don’t fall for it. He threw for over 200 innings for the first time in his career, and while he managed to produce outstanding ratios and decent strikeout totals, I don’t see him improving any further. I don’t really have much evidential proof as to why I think he’s going to falter, but I’ve watched him pitch enough over the last few years to know that his is more capable of imploding on the mound than he is improving his game further. Maybe it’s his home/away splits that I don’t feel right about. Maybe I’ll go immerse myself in some sabermetric totals to find what I’m looking for; his BABIP couldn’t be that good. But for now, I say just take my word for it. You won’t be missing anything by not drafting him….except maybe a last place finish.
Jorge Posada, C NYY — OK, so this one hurts me to write. It really does. Not only am I a huge Yankees fan, but Posada happens to be my favorite Yankee (I was a catcher in Little League and idolized Thurman Munson growing up). But the switch-hitting power backstop is 38 years old now and it’s going to be time for a changing of the guard soon. He’s battled shoulder injuries over the last couple of years and manager Joe Girardi even said that Posada will be limited to no more than 120 games behind the plate this year. As much a s I wish he would continueto produce at his usual levels, I think last year’s 22 HR in 383 AB was the ceiling for him these days. I don’t see him improving and the extra loss of playing time is going to continue to eat into his totals.
Derek Lowe, SP ATL — Well, technically the breakdown started last year, but for those who want to write it off as just a bad year, be careful. While Lowe won 15 games last season, his ratios took a huge hit as he finished the year with a 4.68 ERA and an incredibly ugly 1.52 WHIP. His walks were up, his strikeouts were down and it really looked like all those year son the hill finally caught up to him. His 5.05 ERA in the second half looked almost as bad as watching batters hit him to the tune of a .335 average. While I’m sure you could do worse than Lowe in your draft, I don’t see him making a sudden comeback and righting that ship. Let someone else pay for the name. You want to pay for results.
There’s plenty more coming up as players file in for 2010 Spring Training this week and next. I’ll be doing updates from both the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues, position battle analysis, and of course, will be adjusting the Buzz’ 2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings and Cheat Sheets throughout the next month and a half. I’ll hit you with more fantasy baseball sleepers, rookie reports, bullpen and fantasy baseball closers updates and all the prep work you’ll need for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft. Remember, The Fantasy Baseball Buzz is your number one resource for free fantasy baseball advice, insights, player rankings, strategies and all the tools you’ll need to win your fantasy baseball leagues.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
Heres Hoping David Freese 3rd Base, breaks out this year in Ari. Win the starting job and be one of my Keepers for the next 5 years…..
Yeah, I’ve listed Freese as one of my sleepers this season and feel that he could really take off, if he outright wins the job this spring. I’ve said before that his minor league totals dictate a quality BA with some decent pop, but one of the things that I’m drawn to is the fact that he’s not a typical rookie. I like the fact that he’s spent the last few years maturing in the minors and getting his head right for the game. Sure, he’ll get caught up in certain aspects of being a successful major leaguer, but at 27 he’s probably a little more grounded mentally. There’s a reason so many ballplayers break out in the 26 to 27 year old range and it’s not just physical.
I don’t know about the next 5 years for keeping him, but I feel pretty comfortable with the fact that he could be a top 10 third baseman for atleast the next 2 seasons.
Ya making me feel good here Howard…..Thanks
Sometimes you have to look at the intangibles for a player and not solely rely on stats and/or sabermetrics. A player’s maturity and mindset are not things that can be calculated.