You hear it every year during your raft. Every year. Without fail. You’ve got an owner on the clock; he’s shuffling papers frantically as he looks to make his next pick. The razzing from fellow owners is picking up, the clock is ticking, and finally, he throws out a name for his selection and the whole room erupts. “Didn’t he just have surgery?“ “I heard he was missing the first month of the season.” “Early shoulder problems; he’ll be on the DL in a month.” We’ve all heard it and we’ve probably all been on both sides of the razzing too.
One of the most important things you can do for yourself, when preparing for your fantasy baseball draft is to keep track of the early injuries. And I’m not just talking about the usually tweaks and pulls you get at the start of Spring Training. I’m talking about the offseason surgeries, the early signs of breakdowns, and the players who were shut down towards the end of last season, whether it was precautionary or not. Just because they’ve had the whole offseason to themselves doesn’t necessarily mean that they are all healthy coming into the spring. If it’s someone that you’re even thinking about drafting this year, you’re going to have to pay close attention and monitor their condition and not just take a fantasy baseball magazine’s or website’s word for it that they “should be ready for Spring Training.”
I’ll start with some of the pitchers you should be keeping tabs on right now and we’ll move on to some of the hitters this week…
Jair Jurrjens, SP ATL — After posting a 14-10 record in 2009 with a 2.60 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and a 151/75 K/BB ratio, folks were plenty excited that the 24 year old righty from Curacao reported early for Braves camp this spring. Unfortunately, it may have backfired as Jurrjens immediately complained of soreness in his throwing shoulder after his first session. An MRI was immediately scheduled and it revealed no structural damage at this time. However, this is definitely something to watch. The Braves will likely have him taking it easy now and see how he progresses, and ease him back into his workouts. But for you fantasy owners, be careful. Jurrjens has thrown a lot of innings in these past 2 seasons and the work could be getting to him. He should still have value to start the year, but if I owned him, I’d certainyl be looking to trade him early and get as much value out of him as I could.
Ted Lilly, SP CHC — So the Cubs most efficient pitcher over the last 3 seasons spent some offseason time with Dr. Lewis Yocum, a name no one wants to hear associated with their pitchers. But Yocum went in there and supposedly found no major damage. The procedure was labeled as a “washout and cleanup of the shoulder.” But Lilly didn’t begin his throwing program until mid-January and word had him out until atleast the end of April. However, he reported for camp and immediately begam his workouts and declared his shoulder to be strong and that he’d be ready for Opening Day. However, during workouts, Lilly began to experience problems in his left knee, the same one that had cartilage removed back in July and an MRI was immediately ordered. The results showed just basic wera and tear, but, like Jurrjens, this could be one to be wary of come draft day. I’ll keep you posted as events develop.
Cliff Lee, SP SEA – Another issue to keep this underrated pitcher’s value down. I’ve owned Lee for the last 3 seasons in my primary keeper league and have yet to protect him in the offseason. For whatever reason, people are still clinging to his 2007 debacle and just hate this guy. Each year, I get him cheaper and cheaper in my auction. So, while this latest injury, in my opinion, won’t keep Lee from starting the season, it could be enough to drive his price down even further. During the offseason, Lee had surgery on his left foot to remove a loose bone spur as opposed to receiving steady injections all year and seems to have recovered nicely. He was given a three week time table and he is already slightly ahead of schedule. His first session will be on Wednesday, so keep track of it, but I don’t see this creating any problems for the lefty this season.
Johan Santana, SP NYM — The guy who claims to be the best pitcher in the NL East (wait ’til he gets a look at Roy Halladay) is coming off of arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove bone fragments from his left elbow. The last thing we heard was that he was going to have a throwing session in late January, but that turned out to be just 24 soft toss pitches from the mound. Nothing exciting and nothing that sheds any real light as to his condition. Aside from his self-proclomations of greatness, the lefty vowed that he’d be ready for Opening Day. I don’t know. Maybe it’s just me, but when a lefty fireballer has bone fragments removed from his pitching elbow, I’m a bit skeptical about a full-on recovery and dynamic follow up season. Watch him all spring and see if/how the Mets limit his workload right now. He could be another sell-high candidate in the first couple of months of the season.
Gavin Floyd, SP CHW — While 2009 was a slight step back for Floyd in the ERA department, he did trim down his WHIP a bit and dramatically improved on his K/BB ratio. Entering the prime of his life, folks expect big things out of Floyd this year, as he is expected to take another step towards being one of the top 30 or 40 fantasy hurlers in 2010. But last year saw some hip issues that forced him out of a few starts in September. Enough to be concerned? Apparently not. There was no talk of surgery and there’s been no word about him being limited this spring. As always, an injury that keeps a guy from pitching regularly is something to watch, but it looks like you should feel confident in drafting Floyd this year.
Bobby Jenks, RP CHW — There’s been plenty of talk about Jenks’ decline, and a calf injury at the end of last season was a pretty hot topic of conversation as well. But while the ERA and WHIP were a little higher than they should be in 2009, Jenks did increase his K/9 ratio which had been a bone of contention the last few years. This year, he could right the ship completely and regain the form he once had. Jenks came sauntering into the White Sox’ fanfest a good 20 pounds lighter and appeared to be in fantastic shape. Hi sfirst appearance in Spring Training was the same as a new slim and trim Jenks is looking to vastly improve his numbers across the board. Now I’m not totally sure as to how he’ll end up this year, numbers-wise, but his health right now is no cause for concern. Draft away.
Justin Duchscherer, SP OAK — So many issues for the A’s righty. So many issues. Duchscherer missed all of the 2009 season with elbow problems and a serious bout with clinical depression. Not to mention the hip issues he was dealing with just prior to that. Well, it’s not getting any easier for the 32 year old righty as he is now having problems with his back…well, not entirely his back, but the base of his spine where it connects to the hip joint. It’s being called a “irritated sacroiliac joint”. The injury is being called minor, but anything that requires 3 cortisone shots already doesn’t sound too minor to me. Maybe he’ll bounce back, maybe he won’t, but given his history, I’m staying away from him on draft day.
Vin Mazzaro, SP OAK – An interesting debut for the A’s righty prospect, as Mazzaro went 2-3 with a 2.95 ERA in his first 6 major league starts in June, but hit a serious rough patch in July and the beginning of August as that ERA ballooned to as high as 5.73. But the kid started to get back into form and started to lower his ERA over the next few starts before being shut down for the season with shoulder tendenitis. It doesn’t sound like it was a serious issue, just more precautionary than anything else. While he won’t get you a ton of strikeouts, I think Mazzaro will develop into a solid #2 or 3 starter soon. His innings could get limited again this year, but expect him to take another step forward and join Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill as Oakland’s next “Big 3″.
Chad Qualls, RP ARI — The 2009 season was cut short due to a dislocated kneecap, but all indications still point towards Qualls opening the season as the D-Backs closer thsi year. Manager A.J. Hinch actually had the same exact surgery last year and says that Qualls has been recovering well and has had no problems throwing as of yet. They’ll probably still take it real easy on him this spring, but it sounds like he should have a full recovery. Being held back in the spring may delay him from being 100% ready to go come Opening Day, but I only mean that in the sense of his performance, not that the injury will keep him out. It might take him an extra week or two to be back to normal. The injury will likely keep his draft value down, so see if you can sneak him in.
Roy Oswalt, SP HOU — A bulging disc in his back caused Oswalt to missed the latter part of the 2009 season, and to me, it doesn’t sound like the recovery has been going all that well. There has been talk of surgery as he apparently is experiencing numbness in his left leg caused by the disc pressing against a nerve, but it looks like he’s sticking with just plain old rest and rehab. Considering his age, his size, and the apparent severity of the problem, it doesn’t look good for him in 2010. Th ereports can say that he’s pitching all they want. I will not be using him in fantasy this season and highly suggest you avoid him as well. He might be able to throw a nice start here or there, but I doubt there will be much consistency to go with those overblown ratios.
Brandon Lyon, RP HOU — I was actually keeping Lyon on my radar when looking for cheap closers, but after hearing about a cyst drained from his shoulder and the muscular weakness it’s caused both in his shoulder and his back, I’m not so sure. Hello Matt Lindstrom. Lyon says that he is working on strengthening the muscles and should be ready for Opening Day, but he is definitely behind the other pitchers in camp right now. I’ll track his progress, and still consider him the favorite for Astros closing duties, but he’s certainly causing me to hedge my bets.
Barry Zito, SP SF — Not that many people consider Zito for their fantasy team anyway, but after turning in his best season as a Giant in 2009, the veteran lefty is probably on some folks’ radar out there. Zito finished the regular season last year with a line drive off of his elbow from Padres slugger Adrian Gonzalez. Ouch! X-rays were taken and there seemed to be no damage from the incident; just a deep bone bruise. He’s had the entire offseason to recover and there haven’t been any reports linking the injury to present day, so that’s encouraging. Still, I don’t recommend Zito unless the matchups are right and your desperation is too much to overcome.
Rich Harden, SP TEX — I’m not sure what the Rangers’ front office was thinking when they brought in Harden this offseason, but I guess it’s just a risk they were willing to take. While no specific injury was noted, the Cubs shut down Harden for most of September after skipping him in the rotation a couple of times due to “mechanical issues”. Bu tlet’s face facts. Harden is an injury waiting to happen and if you think you’re ever going to get 200 innings out of him, well then I want to join your league. Chronic injuries have derailed his career and I don’t care how dominant he can look when healthy, the bottom line is that you can find numerous and likely cheaper options that can produce a better season for your fantasy team.
Erik Bedard, SP SEA — Shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum is not something you want attached to a player you’re hoping to draft this season. As it stands right now, Bedard will likely miss most of the first half of the season and therefore shouldn’t be considered much more than a waiver pick-up sometime around the end of May/mid-June. They’re talking about the fact that atleast he didn’t have any rotator cuff issues, but that doesn’t make me feel any better. If someone wants to waste a bench spot wearly and hold onto this guy, then let him, but I wouldn’t be concerned until much later. Pitching is always nice and deep, so why concern yourself today with a guy who still might not even be ready tomorrow.
Brad Lidge, RP PHI — As if last season’s overall performance wasn’t enough to drag down Lidge’s draft value, we’re also looking at a guy recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery in January and elbow surgery to remove bone fragments and repair a tendon back in November. Word on the street has him recovering just fine and he just threw a 20 pitch session today. No problems were reported, but you still have to be leary about this guy. If healthy, I don’t see him being the lights-out guy he was in 2008, but I also don;t see him being as atrocious as he was last year. Somewhere in the middle, and right now I don;t know which side he leans heavier towards. Barring any injury problems, he should be ok to draft, but keep your expectations very low. You never know what’s going to come back and bite you.
Kevin Slowey, SP MIN — Despite wrist surgery last year, I still have some decent expectatiuons from the guy who should prove to be the #2 in the Twinkies’ rotation this year. He made excellent progress in his second year back in ’08 and could have taken another step forward, as most third year starters do, had it not been for the injury. His recovery process has been fine and there has been no word on any issues or problems he may have had during the rehab process. I think you can count on a solid season from him and you should draft with confidence. His totals last year should keep him off of a lot of folk’s radar, so don’t over-reach. But you could be getting a fantastic bargain in the lower rounds.
Keep checking back for updates as all pitchers and catchers (without visa problems) are in camp and preparing for the 2010 season. As I’ve said before, I’ll be doing updates from both the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues, position battle analysis, and of course, will be adjusting the Buzz’ 2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings and Cheat Sheets throughout the next month and a half. I’ll hit you with more fantasy baseball sleepers, rookie reports, bullpen and fantasy baseball closers updates and all the prep work you’ll need for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft. Remember, The Fantasy Baseball Buzz is your number one resource for free fantasy baseball advice, insights, player rankings, strategies and all the tools you’ll need to win your fantasy baseball leagues.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
Loading ...