Comments on: Fantasy Baseball Burning Questions for 2010

By: Howard

Howard — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 16:22:13 +0000

We can agree that numerous players have a career year and an off year, sure. But you’re talking about consistency and Beltre doesn’t have it. First of all, he’s had more than one off year. He went from 20 HR in 2000 back down to 13 in 2001. He had his career year and hit 48 in ’04 and then plummetted down to 19 in ’05. He hit 25 HR in 2008 and then dropped to 8 in ’09. Yes, the 20 to 26 range is where he was for half his career. “Half the time” is not consistency and that is not having just one bad year.

And since you brought up the steroids possibility (probability), let’s talk about that. I know they’re superstars and I don’t want to compare apples to oranges, but look at the guys like Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Look at how their stats dropped after the accusations and Manny’s suspension. Look at Miguel Tejada. So you think, after a possible steroid driven season that Beltre isn’t going to break down like them? This shoulder issue, coupled with a thumb problem isn’t his body saying, “Sorry. Not going to heal properly for you anymore”? You think that he’s just going to go right back to hitting HRs in the low to mid 20 range, not lose bat speed or strength?

And as for your Michael Young comparison, that’s a bit off as well. I would expect Young to hit .300 because he hit .300+ for 5 straight seasons. 5. In a row. Then his average dropped to .284 one year but then right back up above .300 the following season. That’s 6 of his last 7 seasons. THAT’S why I expect Young to hit over .300. Beltre goes from hitting .240 to .334 to .255 to .268 to .277 to .266. Yes, he’ll probably keep his average in the mid .260′s (lower than his career average). But to say that these guys are equally consistent is ridiculous, in my opinion.

I think your projection is nicely optimistic. I’ll put him at .264 for the season with maybe 17 HR and 75 RBI…maybe 76 if his testicle is up for it…

By: David

David — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 14:27:06 +0000

As for a projection with Boston– I’d say (barring any health concerns of course) that he will hit in the .260-.270 range with 22 homers, — his RBI total depends on where Francona bats him– I mean if he is at the tail end of the lineup, his opportunities will obviously suffer– as with runs scored, but I would give him around 85 rbi’s and 75 runs–

By: David

David — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 14:24:29 +0000

I think you are creating an argument to fit your opinion of Beltre. Every player has the so called career year and the so called off year — can we agree on that? If so, then what you’ve said is essentially that between his consistent years of near 20-25 homer 80-90 RBI’s and .270 hitting he had a career year smushed in between (that may or may not have been due to steroids– we’ll maybe someday know) and then an injured year— do all the players that have had this phenomenon of the bad year and the career year fall into the inconsistent category– b/c if there is parity there, then I can agree with you. The players you mentioned are all star/superstar caliber players — so you’re comparing apples to oranges. Take a look at Michael Young– another mid round type of guy– he has ben pretty consistent year to year — hitting .300 or around there– BUT WAIT– he hit .315 in ’07 then went down to .284 in ’08, only to bounce back up to .322 in ’09– do you label him inconsistent in the average department or do you draft this guy knowing he is probably going to hit the .300 mark despite an of f year? He hit 9 homers in ’07, but 22 last year— when you draft him, are you drafting an inconsistent power middle infielder or are you targeting a guy you know will hit around 15? I think we can agree that Michael Young is consistent– but he too had a year where those average numbers fluctuated . . . everyone does– even Jeter.

By: Howard

Howard — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 09:00:36 +0000

Hmmm. Maybe we just have different definitions of the word “consistency”.

He goes from being a low 20 HR guy to a 48 HR guy, back down to a 19 HR guy and then hits 25-26-25 for three seasons and then back down to 8 HR? That’s consistent? His RBI totals are even more all over the place than the HR and his batting average has been as high as .334 and as low as .240. Oh yeah, and he can steal anywhere from 3 to 14 bases. There are plenty of players you can call a “model of consistency” (Mark Teixeira, Jason Bay, Chipper Jones), but Beltre is not one of them.

I’d like to know what kind of numbers you are projecting for him. Do you think he’s going to hit the same as he did from 2006 through 2008 and if so, why?

By: David

David — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 02:51:11 +0000

I must object sir. He is the model of consistency if consistency means performing similarly for a duration of time . . . his career averages are not top tier performance statistics, but he has been as consistent as anyone– the few bad years you described could be anyone at his level. You don’t like him, hey no sweat . . . but, he’s one consistent SOB. I mean, yeah, his homer production in Safeco took a hit over 450 AB’s– that’s to be expected no? However, with his move to the sox, his glove is being highlighted, not his bat– he is not expected to be a primary cog in the offense as he was in Seattle– so I think with some of the pressure off, he is primed for as consistent a year as ever. You’re talking about a 270, 20 homer, 90 RBI guy who despite a career year that was off the charts and a few bad ones sprinkled in there (which is par for just about every mid tier major leaguer’s course), you’ve got yourself a pretty good later round pick 3rd baseman or a 10-12 dollar steal.

By: Howard

Howard — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:48:23 +0000

I guess what I’m really down on is his consistency…or lack thereof, should I say? Sure, if you average out his career, he does have decent numbers for a mid-level third baseman, but the problem with Beltre is that you never know which version you’re going to get.

You’d like to think you’re going to get the guy that hits .270ish with 20-25 HR, but you just never know. Sure he got hurt last year, but he still managed 450 AB and just 8 HR. Pathetic. Not to mention, his average is more .260ish these days. His 2005, looks pretty poor on paper…not just because it was the follow up season to his career year, but because it really was poor. And before that it was the ’01 season where he seemingly disappeared again. Seems that every few years he turns in a stinker of a year and the stinker seasons are getting worse and worse.

I just prefer a guy who hits with more consistency and doesn’t appear to be breaking down here in the tail end of his career, something Beltre seems to be doing.

By: David

David — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 11:39:49 +0000

I can’t believe that you view Beltre as poorly as you do. While he’s not the premier 3rd basemen that the Longoria’s, AROD’s, and Aramis’ are, he’s been pretty darn steady for over 10 years. Yeah, I know, we all expected him to do big things, etc etc etc. Fact remains that he has averaged close to 25 homers over 10 years time, close to 90 RBI’s and 11 SB’s over the course of a 162 game season. You’re ready to sink the guy b/c he got hurt last year? And, it was really his first time missing as many games as he did– he hadn’t dipped below 140 games since 1999. These are pretty solid stats for a mid round 3rd baseman — you know the kinda guy you wait around for to grab at a reasonable rate to get solid 3B production . . . . I’m just sayin’ . . .

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