Myths. Legends. Adages. Old Wive’s Tales. “The only things certain in life are death and taxes.” “An apple a day keeps the doctor away.” “Feed a cold, starve a fever.” “Don’t make that face. Someone’s gonna hit you in the back of the head and it’ll stay like that forever.” They’re everywhere in this world and people still adhere to them today as if they were still following the gospel from biblical times. But fantasy baseball is different, right? It’s a game that bases its foundation in statistics, averages and other mathematics, isn’t it? With the amount of data you have to pore over, there couldn’t possibly be much room for conjecture, let alone some unsubstantiated theory, could there? No way. Of course not. Well, maybe. One or two…?
Just like anything else in this world, fantasy baseball has its myths and superstitions. Have you heard the one about 27 being the age where players have their big breakout seasons? Of course you have! It’s plastered all over every fantasy baseball web site and every fantasy baseball magazine each year. Heck, I’ve even had people email me that they used the “Myth of 27″ as their primary draft strategy and won their league. For years, we’ve seen lists of players who are 27 or are going to turn 27 in the first half of the upcoming season and we are expected to draft these guys with the expectation that they are going to, not only surpass their prior season totals, but are going to post career numbers that will supposedly vault you to the top of your league standings. But how much validity can be found in this theory? Are there proven statistics that we can look up to verify these findings?
To research this, I scoured through the internet postings of fantasy baseball seasons past, searching for some sort of proof, some form of corroborating evidence, to help promote this theory, and unless there’s something wrong with the multiple search engines I’ve used, the displays of substantiation are few and far between. But there was definitely one article that caught my eye. Back in February of 2008, Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN.com wrote an article entitled “Debunking the ’Age 27′ Myth” and used an array of data to try and dispel the rumor. But what I found, after reading Cockcroft’s article, understanding his logic, and studying his charts and tables, is that he, unbeknownced to him, not only proved the theory’s accuracy, but further substantiated what I am about to share with you. Please take a few moments to read through Cockcroft’s findings, because I am, more than likely, going to refer to his data on more than one occasion
Cockcroft was so intent on disproving the theory that he failed to acknowledge that, not only is the theory partially substantiated with his data, but it is also changing with the times and the modern development of the major league baseball player. If you look at his first table, he breaks down each age group and examines the power numbers and then tallies how many career highs were set, and how many of those career highs were peak performances. What he came up with in this data was that it wasn’t the 27 year olds that had the best stat lines over the 10 years prior to his research, but it was the 26 year olds, overall. Other age groups (like the 28 year olds in the “peak” category) had some spikes in the data, but ultimately, it was the 26 year olds that had the best totals across the board. He goes on to say, “That might lead a few readers to wonder if many of those “age-26″ players might actually have turned 27 early in those seasons, perhaps skewing the numbers. Consider, though, that of the 13 players who hit more home runs at age 26 than in any other year of their careers, four celebrated their 27th birthdays before the All-Star break, but six didn’t turn 27 until after the season. Totaling the games played by the lot of 13 as 26- and 27-year-olds, only 31.5 percent (655 of 2,083) came after the player turned 27, less than one-third. I’ll leave it to you to decide how significant that is, but I’ll also remind you of this: If you want to bump the cut-off date to later in the season, for every 26-year-old who hops into the 27-year-old pool, there’ll be a 27-year-old who exits that group to join the 28-year-olds.”
Now sure, there are other noted anomalies in his findings like the 31 year olds, but those can easily be explained. For example, between ’97 and ’07, of the players who played 50% or more of their games as a DH with a minimum of 300 AB each year, 71% of them were 30 and over. Certainly, those players aren’t the targets for “breakout fantasy baseball seasons“, but there are enough of them to skew the overall numbers when examining peak performances of various age groups. The same logic can be used when talking about first basemen as well as players who platoon in the outfield due to age, especially when you consider that Cockcroft’s numbers were based on the fact that “the players selected were the ones who hit the most home runs in the past 10 seasons.” With some obvious exceptions, the bulk of the power hitters come from the first base, outfield and DH spots, traditionally positions held by aging veterans. So taking that into consideration, if you’re looking at his data you’ll easily see that the bulk of the breakouts and peak performances are occurring at the age of 26. And so where does that leave us with the 27 year olds? Should we just take Cockcroft’s work and use it to disprove the “Myth of 27″ or can we turn it around and use it to help us understand that players today are peaking earlier today than they have in years past? That’s where my theory comes into play. I don’t see it as the ability to dismiss the so-called myth, but rather adjust it towards the trends of the game today. I present to you…the “Myth of 26″.
If you examine the history of the modern game, you’ll note that it is a game of trends. Early in the spring of last year, I wrote an article on AddictFantasySports.com entitled “Gettin’ Trendy” and then did a follow-up here on Rotobuzz called “Steal Your Base” where I discussed the game’s movement over the years, from the perspective of power vs. speed. I noted that through the “steroid era”, fantasy owners who were paying premiums for power back in the late 80′s/early 90′s no longer had to do so and that the premium was being paid for stolen bases instead. Gone were the 80+ SB guys like Ricky Henderson and Vince Coleman and in came the power hitters like Albert Belle, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Mark McGwire. Home runs were everywhere and stolen bases became much harder to come by. Well, as performance-enhancing drug testing became more of an issue, the number of guys plugging 40+ dingers decreased and the number of guys stealing 20+ bases begam to increase as evidenced by the fact that from 2008 to 2009, there was a 21.1% increase in the number of players to steal 20 or more bases. Well, the same deduction can be used here if you follow the average age of major leaguers in the modern era.
Take a look at the graph below that shows the average age of a major league batter from year to year. From the time period that Cockcroft was examining, the average age of a batter was rising from just under 29 to almost 29.5. I know it doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you chart that to over 800 major leaguers, the increase is fairly significant. Now take a look at around 2004 where the number spiked and begins to descend as we move closer to 2010. With more major leaguers beginning their careers at a younger age and the use of this youth movement in spots like the DH position (see Billy Butler or Travis Snider), it’s almost a certainty that players will start to peak sooner than in earlier years. Take a look at some of the names and ages of today’s big fantasy contributors: Justin Upton will be 22 this year; Travis Snider 22; Elvis Andrus 21; Pablo Sandoval 23; Alcides Esobar 23, Jay Bruce 23; Colby Rasmus 23; Andrew McCutchen 23. With the exception of Escobar, each of these players has begun their respective careers at a younger age than most players inthe past. Heck, even Evan Longoria can be thrown into the mix as he was a 22 year old rookie and will only be 24 this season. The list goes on and on. I remember when Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones were something special as both of them were considered babies in their rookie seasons. Today, each would be just one of the many.
Looking for a little more than just Average Age statistics and 1B/DH guys ruining the sample size? Well then let’s continue. How about some of the players that were supposed to have their “27 Breakouts” in the last 2 years? Let’s start off with the most recent and biggest name that hit the age 27 barrier this past season — Grady Sizemore. Undoubtedly, if there was anyone worth owning at the breakout age of 27, it would have to be Sizemore, right?
When Sizemore was first called up by the Indians in July of 2004, he was 21 years old, just one month shy of his 22nd birthday. He struggled a bit to start, but by September, he was showing great poise and discipline at the plate, hit .314 for the month and never looked back. The starting centerfield job in Cleveland was his. He then went on to do what no other major leaguer had done in atleast the last decade — 4 consecutive 209-20 seasons, the last (his 26th year) being 30-30. In fact, in 2008, Sizemore set career highs for HR, RBI and SB. His average dipped a little, which is normal for guys whose power is rising, and his runs scored were down, but that can be blamed on a bum lineup with a broken Travis Hafner. Regardless, his 26th year was a thing of beauty for his owners. The following off season, almost every fantasy baseball magazine and website had him listed as the top fantasy outfielder, and expectations were extremely high for 2009. After all, he was consistently improving from year to year and he was going to turn 27 in August. All signs point to breakout, right?
Well, I’ll spare all you Sizemore owners the rest of the details, but after an injury plagued season, Sizemore, in his 27th year, was one of the biggest fantasy baseball busts in 2009. Now some will say that he never got the chance to break out due to his elbow issues and various other ailments and that next year he will rebound, but my skepticism will keep that in check. But for the sake of this theory, let’s examine what we have, not what we project. Sizemore was one of those ballplayers who came into the league very young, played regularly, saw improvement, and peaked in his 4th full season. Not an uncommon thing if you look at most players’ ages from the time they enter the majors to the time that they hit their career numbers. While most major leaguers were making their debuts around the age of 23 or 24, it was no wonder that they were peaking around 27. But like I’ve said, guys are flooding the system at an earlier age these days, and therefore should be peaking a little earlier than before.
Still not totally convinced? Well how about checking out the two lists below:
| 2007 | 2008 | |
| Justin Morneau | Adrian Gonzalez | |
| Brandon Phillips | Jorge Cantu | |
| Alex Rios | Nate McLouth | |
| Curtis Granderson | Kevin Kouzmanoff | |
| Nick Swisher | Jhonny Peralta | |
| Chris Duncan | Alexei Ramirez | |
| Ryan Garko | Andre Ethier | |
| Josh Hamilton | Corey Hart | |
| John Buck | Jason Kubel | |
| Jonny Gomes | Mike Napoli | |
| Mike Jacobs | Ian Kinsler | |
| Jose Bautista | Ben Francisco | |
| David Murphy | ||
| Mark Teahen |
The names you are looking at above are the players who, at the age of 26, had the best power numbers of their age bracket. None of the above names hit less than 15 HR in their respective year and all of them made the following season’s list of “players to break out at age 27″. I’m using the 15 HR mark because, as Cockcroft did, I’m using the guys that exhibited the most power for their age group. The funny thing, is that most of them got their first exposure to the majors at a fairly young age (21-23), with a handful of exceptions. So how did they fare in their 27th year? Did they have their big breakouts? Well, if I’m using this list to prove my point, then I think you know the answer.
Of the 26 names listed above (ironic, right?), only 5 saw a significant increase across the board in their 27th year. In 2008, only Josh Hamilton and Mike Jacobs saw improvement while everyone else, including the great Justin Morneau, saw a nosedive in stats. To be fair, I’ll say that Nick Swisher slightly increased his HR output, but his 42 point dip to a .219 batting average negated any good that his 24 HR did, and Jose Bautista actually posted near identical totals. Last year, in 2009, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier and Jason Kubel were the ones to see a significant climb. Ian Kinsler saw a big boost in his power numbers, but also had a significant dip in batting average. Mike Napoli, David Murphy and Ben Francisco all hit about the same as they did in the year before. So even if you include Kinsler to the group of 27 year old breakouts, that’s still only 6, leaving us with a 77% “failure” rate. As a matter of fact, out of the 20 that left us twisting in the wind in their 27th year, only Curtis Granderson has posted a career HR total since that time. Again, his average took a huge drop, but I think we’ve grown to expect that, haven’t we?
And the list of 27 year old disappointments goes on. How about some of the other “failures” in 2009? How about J.J. Hardy, Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson, Rickie Weeks, and Kelly Johnson? Quentin, Weeks, and Jackson were riddled with injuries in 2009 while both Hardy and Johnson took huge nosedives. As a matter of fact, Hardy’s was so bad that he found himself in the minors for a substantial amount of time in his 27th year. Now sure, you’ve got your success stories in Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist, but again, each of them were fairly late bloomers in comparison to some of the aforementioned players like Alex Rios and Jhonny Peralta, so their breakouts were right on time. Like I said earlier, it’s not dismissing the “Myth of 27″. It just merely needs an adjustment.
So when you’re formulating your fantasy baseball strategy and are looking for some good insights and fantasy baseball advice, keep this article in mind. You’re going to get numerous lists of 27 year olds for 2010, but to do your work properly, you’re going to have to do some research, check some birthdays, see when everyone strating playing inthe majors, and sift out some of the names. I’ll be doing a list of my own for you in the coming weeks when I discuss 2010 fantasy baseball sleepers, but for now, a good start is to see which players have come into the league at an early age and have already broken out the year before. After all, 26 is the new 27.
For the best free fantasy baseball advice, insights and 2010 fantasy baseball player rankings and position tiers, RotoBuzz.com is the place to be. For questions, thoughts, or comments, either post here or send an email to rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
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