As I wait for more MLB trades and free agent signings, I’ll take another break from the Keeper League Advice articles and talk about another hot topic walking into the 2010 fantasy baseball season: Stephen Strasburg, the most highly anticipated prospect since…since…well, I don’t know. Each season there’s always a massive amount of hype surrounding atleast one hot, young rookie, if not several, so rather than compare his hype levels, let’s just talk about the player, himself, and what fantasy baseball owners can expect for the upcoming fantasy season and possibly years to come.
The Basics
| Born: | July 21, 1988 |
| Age: | 21 |
| Height: | 6′ 4″ |
| Weight: | 220 lbs. |
| College: | San Diego State University |
| Throws: | Right |
| Bats: | Right |
| Contract: | 4 yrs $15.1M (ends after 2012 season) |
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The Scouting Report
The collegiate level seemed to be a breeze for Strasburg as his sophomore and junior years just prior to the June draft were phenomenally successful. In 2008, Strasburg went 8-3 with a 1.57 ERA and 133 Ks in just over 97 innings. He had 4 complete games that season, 2 of which were shutouts, and hit a career high 23 strikeouts in one game against the University of Utah.
In 2009, he took his game to the next level as he went 13-1, a 1.32 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP and struck out 195 batters in only 109 innings. Unbelievably dominant. And in his final home start of the season, Strasburg threw his first no-hitter against Air Force, striking out 17, while earning him a roster spot on the U.S. Baseball Team — the only collegiate athlete to receive such an honor.
From there, the hype grew even stronger as he debuted against the Netherlands and threw a one-hitter through 7 innings, striking out 5 of the first 6 batters he faced. MLB GMs and scouts alike were drooling over this kid. Everyone thought he was the be-all, end-all of pitchers and everyone wanted a piece of him.
No matter what scouting report you read, people gush about this kid. And when I say “gush” I’m probably understating it more than just a bit. We’re talking bust out the hip waders, open the floodgates, don’t bother with the sandbags, deluge of scouts screaming, not singing, this kid’s praises type of gushing. I mean, let’s look at some of what folks are saying…
“Entering play tonight [SDSU vs BYU, 3/20/09], Strasburg had a 1.98 ERA and a 59-5 K/BB ratio in 27 1/3 innings. Think about that – 59 strikeouts and FIVE walks in 27 1/3 innings, and he’s starting games and going seven and eight innings each time out. I’m not even sure if you took the best arms in the big leagues, starter or closer – Sabathia, Santana, Lincecum, Beckett, K-Rod at his best, whoever, and pitched him 27 1/3 innings at the most comfortable rate possible, that they’d put up those sickening numbers – in Double-A. That’s preposterous, it’s ridiculous… it’s insanity.” — Prospects Insider
“In case you’ve been living under a rock… Stephen Strasburg is the best pitching prospect in baseball. Selected number one overall in this past June’s MLB draft out of San Diego State, Strasburg has the stuff to immediately step into a Major League rotation — especially one as poor as the Nationals.” — Project Prospect
“You have to see it, because if you don’t, you ain’t gonna believe it.” — Tony Gwynn, SDSU manager
And here’s the report I found on MLB.com after a game back in March of ‘09 as well…
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| Fastball: | Strasburg has a plus, plus fastball that touched triple digits twice in his first start. He sits comfortably in the upper 90s and maintains it deep into starts. |
| Fastball movement: | Fairly true, though he elevated at times. He did show some arm-side life and was able to spot it down in the zone consistently. |
| Slider: | More of a slurve, thrown 80-82 mph with a lot of action, depth and tight spin. In the past, he threw a true hard slider, 85-87 mph, but not in this outing. |
| Changeup: | He threw 80-82 mph and showed signs of repeating it. Has good action to it, although it wasn’t as firm as it’s been in the past. |
| Control: | He threw strikes, but was up in the zone a little and hitters were on his fastball. He had better control than command. |
| Poise: | Good. He’s shown some negative emotion in the past, but there was no sign of it this time. |
| Physical Description: | Strasburg looks the part of an ace, physically strong with a long neck, rounded shoulders, big hands and good core strength in the lower half. |
| Medical Update: | Healthy. |
| Strengths: | The plus stuff, especially the fastball. Size, strength, mound presence … a complete package. |
| Weaknesses: | Nitpicking a little, but he doesn’t have a put-away pitch among his secondary offerings. His command in the strike zone could use some improvement. |
| Summary: | When you’re generally considered to be the top Draft prospect in a class before a game is played, the microscope is going to come out. Strasburg’s stuff holds up under such scrutiny for the most part, especially his plus fastball. Nitpickers may look at the secondary offerings as being just average and his command needing a little refinement, but none of that will keep him from being atop just about every Draft board. |
So there’s the basic rundown. He’s got an amazing 2 seam fastball that usually sits in the low to mid 90’s as his primary pitch, an apparently ridiculous 4 seam fastball that sits in the mid to high 90’s despite reports of triple digits by some scouts, and more than decent secondary stuff in a slider/curve (slurve, I suppose) that has great late-breaking movement and a change-up that sits in the low 80’s. Very good command/control, not excellent…yet. With the talent level on the current Nationals’ roster and what they have in the minors, most experts are saying that Strasburg should and will be up with the big club almost immediately.
Arizona Fall League
For those of you just learning the fantasy baseball game, the Arizona Fall League has long been a hot-bed of info for scouting the next wave of hot up and comers. Evan Longoria, Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, Jered Weaver, and Tommy Hanson are just a few of the hot prospects that use the AFL to help make the jump from collegiate/minor league ball to the majors. So it was no surprise to see everyone descend upon the southwest in October to see the heralded righty start for the Phoenix Desert Dogs.
But it wasn’t all fun in the sun for Strasburg. After a pair of “starts” in the instructional league, Strasburg made his AFL debut on October 17th pitching 3 1/3 scoreless innings allowing 2 hits, one walk and 2 Ks on 50 pitches. It wasn’t that he looked overwhelmed, but he definitely did not dominate as he had done in the past. Afterall, the AFL is no joke.
In his second start, the bottom fell out and it fell out early. Strasburg lasted only 2 2/3 innings as he gave up 8 runs (7 earned) on 7 hits and one walk. He also allowed 3 home runs. Definitely not “vintage” Strasburg, and while I’m certainly not panning the kid, it’s hard for this effort to not stand out in your mind.
Strasburg’s next two starts were a little more indicative of his talent, or atleast the talent we’ve all been told about. He pitched just under 10 innings total in his 3rd and 4th starts in the AFL and allowed only one run. In fact, he carried a no-hitter into the 5th in his third start before being removed due to pitch counts. Scouts claimed that he hit triple digits on the radar gun and the panicky worry-warts from his second start were assuaged with the latest results.
Unfortunately though, that was as good as it got for baseball’s next big thing. He was supposed to start the “Rising Stars” game but was scratched due to a pinched nerve in his neck and was then scratched again from his final start (the AFL Championship) when he twisted his knee a few days prior while shagging fly balls in the outfield. Strasburg said he felt a pop in his knee and after an immediate trip to the famed orthopedist, Dr. Lewis Yocum, he was told that therapy and rest woul dbe the answer. No surgery was apparently necessary, much to the delight of the entire Nationals organization.
2010 Fantasy Baseball Projection
So now the question is, how do we as GMs in the baseball fantasy world digest this information as we plan our draft strategy heading into the 2010 fantasy baseball season? With such successful, young fireballers like Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, and Felix Hernandez making triumphant debuts out there and every fantasy baseball GM’s need/desire to be the one to draft the next uber-stud, what kind of fantasy value do we assess to Strasburg? Is he going to be worth what owners are going to pony up on draft day?
In my two primary fantasy baseball keeper leagues, Strasburg was picked up off of waivers prior to his even being drafted by the Nationals. Will both teams keep him? Not likely. The cost of holding onto him will undoubtedly be too great considering Spring Training will not have even started by the time our protects are due. But will he be a hot commodity come draft day? I’m guessing yes, in spite of the fact that he will either start the season in the minors or, at best, begin the season with the Nats and learn to pitch in the bigs on the job.
Fantasy baseball heads are so overly-obsessed with finding the “next big thing” that they will overpay and, in most cases, overlook proven talent to take their chances. My advice to you is to talk him up as much as possible and then let him go. For every “can’t miss prospect” like a Tim Lincecum that’s out there, there are dozens of failed arms for which people have overpaid. Adam Miller? Homer Bailey? Adam Loewen? Phil Hughes? Scott Elbert? The list goes on and on. Now sure, these guys might not all have walked into their inaugural springs with the same level of hype as Strasburg, but they were among some of the top prospects each year since 2004/05. And these are just the busts. Think about how many people have overpaid for guys that have been basically middle of the road type fantasy pitchers? Guys like Clayton Kershaw and Joba Chamberlain have found some success in the bigs and have adorned fantasy baseball rosters for the last 2 or 3 years, but again, neither worthy of the price you pay for excessive hype.
And then let’s talk about my favorite can’t miss prospect; someone who actually did walk into the majors with the same level of hype as Strasburg. Remember back in 2001? There was a big righty out of USC that had an amazing fastball, quality secondary pitches, great command, and was going to personally deliver a Cy Young Award and a Wold Series championship to the Chicago Cubs. Yup. That’s right. Remember Mark Prior?
When Prior first came to the bigs in 2002, he was supposed to be the best pitching prospect baseball had seen in atleast 10 years and fantasy owners went nuts over this kid. GMs were making it rain with bid dollars at their drafts and owners were plucking this kid in early rounds expecting collossal rewards. Well, we all know how that ended up: one great year in 2003 and a laundry list of injuries so extensive that I wouldn’t even have the time to list them.
Again, I’m not saying that Strasburg is going to become the next Mark Prior, but in all honesty, he’s got a better chance of being the next Prior than he does of being the next Lincecum. Players like little Timmy come very rarely and fantasy owners need to play it smart when it comes to drafting an unproven prospect regardless of the hype and expectations. It’s one thing to invest in a hyped hitter. Atleast that guy gets the opportunity to go out and produce for you every day. Pitching is a different story. Managers and pitching coaches are often overly-cautious with a young arm and are more likely to demote a kid who’s stuff is being crushed by big league hitters. Not to mention the whole pitch count thing these days. You’re lucky to see a youngster go out there and throw more than 5 or 6 innings anyway. That’s where you want to invest your money? Trust me. Save it. I’ve written numerous columns over the years talking about building a quality pitching staff without having an ace and the last thing you’re going to want to do this year is invest “ace like” dollars into an unproven commodity. There’s plenty of quality pitching available in every draft.
Sure, Strasburg could be amazing and the guy who snags him in your draft could be “oohing and ahhing” all season long. But would you rather be that guy and sitting with a mediocre team because you overpaid for one pitcher or the guy who used his bid money wisely and has a balanced squad finishing in the money? For me, it’s a no-brainer. Fantasy baseball is business and falling too hard for hype is lettign your emotions get the better of you. If you think Strasburg is going to have a major fantasy impact here in 2010, then power to you. Draft away. But if you want to be sensible, understand that the odds are stacked pretty high against him — hype, expectations, pressure, injuries and the Nationals. Sounds like a very expensive recipe for fantasy disaster, if you ask me.
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