Fantasy baseball, each and every year, has a slew of rookies and other youngsters that puts owners in a state of frenzy. This year we’re seeing players like Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg making others stand up and take notice and it’s elevating their draft day price with each and every endorsement. Peter Gammons is comparing Strasburg to Nolan Ryan, Bobby Cox is making Hank Aaron comparisons after Heyward takes BP, and fantasy owners are chomping at the bit; drooling over the idea of being the guy to draft the “next big thing.” But after listening to Fanball’s Fantasy Buffet on Blog Talk Radio this morning, I was reminded that rookies can take a long time to develop and some don’t ever reach that potential that was talked about so often. Remember the Big Three from a few years ago? No, not Oakland’s pitching crew from the late ’90′s. I’m talking about Tampa’s Big Three. Before the hype that came with the emergence of Evan Longoria, the Rays had a trio of can’t miss prospects that were going to dominate both in real baseball and in baseball fantasy circles. All three are still in the game, but have they proven that their fantasy value has equaled the hype? Let’s visit with B.J. Upton, Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes and see for ourselves.
I suppose that we should start with Upton as he’s easily the one who has had the most success in the majors. He’s also been the one to have the most significant fantasy impact since his first call-up. The buzz on Upton was that he was similar to Carl Crawford in that he was a speedster who could/should develop close to 20 HR power and together, it was going to be one of the most potent 1-2 punches at the top of an order that baseball has seen. Well, sometimes things don’t always go according to plan now, do they?
Upton didn’t flash too much in 2004 with his first call-up, hitting just .258 with 4 SB in 159 at bats, and ended up spending all of the ’05 season back down in the minors. Down there, though, he showed what the hype was all about again as he hit .303 with 18 HR and 44 SB. You would have thought that he could use that momentum the following season during the spring, but he got off to a slow start, never recovered and found himself back in the minors again. Down there, his speed was still the focal point as he swiped 46 bases in 106 games, but the power dissipated a bit. He only hit .269 with 8 HR, but his .375 OBP garnered him the late season call-up. Another round of disappointment as he only hit .246 with one home run in his 175 big league at bats. Sure he swiped 11 bases, but realistically, despite the fact that he was only 21 years old, he was starting to get that old Quadruple-A player label.
But then the breakout occurred in 2007. Upton broke camp with the team and, while he only swiped 22 bases that year, he hit .300 for the season with a whopping 24 HR. Suddenly the thoughts of 20-20 seasons danced in people’s heads and talk of 20-40 seasons weren’t such a pipe dream after all. Or were they? Since that season, Upton has swiped 40+ bags each year, but the power started to vanish, as did the batting average. Last year’s .241 average was just abyssmal. Now, to be fair, Upton has been dealing with a shoulder problem the last 2 seasons and with such a long recovery process, people are saying that the power will return. Using the shoulder as an excuse for lackluster power numbers seems to be the rage amongst a lot of “experts” and people are talking about 20-40 seasons again.
Me? I’m not so sure. I’m definitely a fan of Upton’s, but there are a few things holding me back. Yes, the shoulder likely sapped a bunch of his power, therefore changing his approach at the plate. But for me, his power and speed don’t seem to go hand in hand just yet. In years where he’s swiped a ton of bags, his average has been a little suspect and there’s little or no power to be had. And the one year where he did pop 24 dingers, he only swiped the 22 bases. To make it worse, Upton seemed to have developed an attitude problem like we’ve seen in the next two members of this trio. Upton was extremely unhappy with being dropped in the batting order and his efforts showed just how unhappy he was. After a raging June last year, he struggled in July to the tune of a .233 average for the month, and upon his demotion to the bottom of the order, he delivered a .213 August and a .231 September. His OBP over those three months was never higher than .282 for any month and he only swiped 11 bases in the second half. Normally, I like to see a drop in the order as a motivator for players. If it gets worse, then there’s something wrong.
All eyes will be on Upton this year, as there are still folks holding out hope for that elusive 20-40 season. Depending on his attitude this season, and obviously his shoulder recovery, I can see him atleast reaching the 15 HR plateau. Anything higher would be a little unrealistic, in my opinion. As for the steals, if I’m going with an increase in power, then I have to reduce the number of swipes. Not by much, but I’d put him somewhere around 35 for the season. As much as I’d like to bank on a huge resurgence, I just can’t, with good conscience.
The story of Delmon Young rides a much different rollercoaster here. Again, the hype was enormous as we were talking about Dmitri “Da Meathook” Young’s little brother who had more power potential and better speed on the basepaths. Minor league totals were dictating 20-20 seasons, but Young’s head was just in the wrong place. Unhappy with the organization, unhappy with his contract and just overall unhappy in general, Young’s attitude problems were a huge disruption. So much so that he even took a 50 game suspension in the minors for tossing his bat in an umpire’s direction and hitting the up in the chest with it. There was no way the big league club was going to tolerate that kind of behavior.
Well, supposedly Young mellowed a bit and got himself a late season call-up in 2006. He went on to hit .318 with 3 HR and 2 SB in his first 126 major league at bats, and suddenly word of Delmon was buzzing again. The following season he broke camp with the Rays (Devil Rays to be specific…and nostalgic) and he got a full season in the outfield. But the numbers didn’t really translate as he only hit 13 HR and stole 10 bases that year. His average was soli denough at .288, but the .317 OBP was killing him and the team. The following offseason, the Rays finally gave up and dealt him to Minnesota in a deal that netted them Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.
While Young’s attitude seems to have improved as he’s gotten a little older (he’s still only 24), his stats haven’t really gotten much better. His BA is always nice and steady, averaging in the high .280′s, but there hasn’t been any kind of a breakout in power or speed. And I don’t see one coming too soon either. With the addition of Jim Thome to the Twins clubhouse, things could get a little complicated for Young. His average against righties isn’t as strong as it is against lefties, and he could find himself on the bench against right-handed pitching in lieu of Thome and Jason Kubel. Nothing has been officially stated by Ron Gardenhire, but the handwriting is definitely on the wall.
And then there’s the third member of the Rays’ Big Three — Elijah Dukes. If you’re comparing success stories between the three, Dukes is the last one on your list. Not only have his stats been atrocious, but his attitude, his off-field problems and his penchant for the DL have kept him off of most people’s radars no matter how many “experts” claim that “this could be the year.” In fact, there were atleast 4 fantasy baseball magazines that had Dukes listed as a big sleeper for 2009, and then he got bumped down to the minors.
There’s no need to go into his personal problems as I really don’t have all the facts about his drinking and hand issues with his ex-girlfriends. I’ve heard the rumors, as I’m sure many of you have as well, but I’ll leave the talk of death threats to someone who has more of a closer knowledge of the situation. Instead, I’ll just talk about his career .241 avergae and his part-time status on the lowly Nationals these days. As it stands right now, Dukes is slated to be the Nats’ starting left fielder and I haven’t heard or read anything to contradict that. But what Dukes does with that is yet to be seen. While I think he does have the ability to pop 20+ HR, his average is atrocious and he offers up little else. As of today, he’s nothing more than a very late round flier that you can grab for cheap and hope/pray that he gets his act together.
So keep this little trio in mind as you’re listening to the words of others about the youngsters. As much as I’d love to believe that Stephen Strasburg is the next Nolan Ryan and that Jason Heyward will hit like Hammerin’ Hank, I have to keep it realistic. They could/should be fantastic long term keeper options, but if you’re planning on an immediate impact, remember Tampa’s Big Three.
Remember, with everyone reeporting to camp now, I’ll be doing updates from both the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues, position battle analysis, and of course, will be adjusting the Buzz’ 2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings and Cheat Sheets throughout the next month and a half. I’ll hit you with more fantasy baseball sleepers, rookie reports, bullpen and fantasy baseball closers updates and all the prep work you’ll need for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft.
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Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!!!
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