Ah, starting pitching.  While it’s always important to build yourself a solid pitching staff, we all know that it’s offense that really wins you the fantasy baseball leagues.  Because starting pitching is always the deepest position out there (think about it…30 teams with 5 man rotations, not counting injury replacements and call-ups?) it’s easy to see that you can build a quality staff without breaking the fantasy bank.  Quality hitting is much more difficult to find the deeper you look, but pitching is always abundant.  In fact, most “experts” will tell you that you can wait on starting pitching in snake drafts and, in fantasy baseball auctions, you should split your budget, basically 65% hitting and 35% pitching.  Now that’s obviously a guesstimate, depending on your league, but the fact remains, you can be very economical when choosing your pitchers.  You don’t always need an ace to compete.  You can go with a collective group of lower tiered starters and still outperform the guy who broke the bank on Tim Lincecum but is then stuck with guys like Ross Ohlendorff and Kyle Davies in his rotation.  It takes a lot of research to find those hidden gems so paying attention now and finding names to keep on your radar is imperative to weeding out the pretenders come spring time.  Here’s how I see the Starting Pitcher Tiers today…

Starting Pitchers

1st Tier:  Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren

     Plain and simple…the cream of the crop.  If you’re going to make the move and invest a high draft pick or excessive bid dollars in a starter, then it better be one of these guys.  These 5 are as reliable as you can get and any one fo them can end up doing the work of 2 (maybe even 3) lower tiered startes.

     Tim Lincecum, with his back to back Cy Youngs in his first 2 seasons in the bigs, is the unquestioned ace of aces.  His ratios are ridiculous, his strikeouts are mind-blowing and you know what…the wins are going to follow this year.  While they haven’t done crazy things this offseason, the Giants have definitely beefed up their lineup enough that little Timmy shouldn’t be losing those heartbreaking 2-1 decisions like he has in the past.  Expect him to continue the path that he’s on, especially when he could be playing for a contract this year.

     The move to the Phillies could do wonders for Roy Halladay.  No, I don’t expect him to win 25 games this year, but in all honesty, it really wouldn’t be that far-fetched.  I see Halladay’s K’s improving with the move to the NL (who doesn’t love replacing a DH with a pitcher at the plate?) and his ratios should stay relatively intact.  The only concern I may have, and this would not deter me from him at all in the draft, is that his “HR allowed” went up a little these past 2 seasons and Citizens’ Bank Ballpark plays like my backyard sometimes.

     I’ll admit that it took me a couple of seasons to warm up to the idea of Zack Greinke being an ace, but lo and behold, here he is in my top tier.  He’s made improvements on his ratios every year since 2005, boosted his strikeouts and even increased his wins despite pitching for the woeful Royals.  It looks like the social anxiety disorder is being properly treated and I think Greinke’s 2009 totals should be where he plateaus for another couple of seasons.

     Rounding out the top tier are CC Sabathia and Dan Haren.  Both are high quality starters and while I’d rather have the previous 3 over these guys, they’re still head and shoulders above the rest.  Sabathia could easily post 20 win seasons for the almighty Yankees while keeping his ratios in check, and his K’s should hover in the 200 range.  Haren, has been one of the most underrated of aces in the game, but coul dstand to work on his efforts in the second half.  It’s always the same story with him — lights out first half, mediocrity in the second.  You can bet he’ll be on the top of everyone’s “sell high” list by the end of June.

2nd Tier:  Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Javier Vazquez, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Josh Beckett

     I’m sure you’ve just glanced through the names of the second tier and are probably thinking, “Hey!  Some of these guys are top tier material, aren’t they?”  Well, yes…and no.  I love a lot of these guys for this season, but like I did with my other positional tiers, I’ve left the top for the unquestioned and the unflappable.  These guys here in the second tier all have great stuff and coul dvery well be considered aces, but there’s a little something that’s holding me back.

     Take Felix Hernandez for instance.  King Felix had a Cy Young worthy season in 2009 with his 19 wins, 217 K, 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  Outstanding.  But let’s face facts…the kid is only 23 and has already thrown 190+ innings for 4 straight seasons.  He hasn’t posted numbers this good since his 2005 call-up and he pitches for the Mariners.  So what am I saying?  I’m saying he may be great and he may duplicate his ’09 totals, but the odds of a major arm injury or a reversion to his ’07/’08 ratios are pretty high, in my opinion.

     Justin Verlander is another one that I question.  His 2009 totals were insane.  No question.  Anytime you strike out 269 batters and win 19 games you have to be put a cut above the rest.  But in looking at his numbers in previous years, I think the Verlander you get this year will be more in line with the one you got back in 2007.  You may not get the 18 wins, but the other numbers should fall in line.

     Beyond those two, you’ve got some real nice starters here to work with.  I’m a big fan of  Josh Johnson and believe that he is en route to being in the top tier very soon.  The same could be said for Jon Lester.  The Cardinals’ tandem of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter should continue to perfom at high levels, Cole Hamels is looking for a rebound, and Cliff Lee returns to the AL, but in a much better ballpark for himself.  You also have solid starters in Matt Cain and Josh Beckett, both who can put up ace-like numbers in a given season.

     A couple of question marks round out the tier for me — Javier Vazquez comes off a phenomenal season for the Braves but returns to the Yankees where he definitely experienced some difficulties his last time around, Jake Peavy who has his first full season in the AL with the White Sox while still trying to show that the elbow is healthy, and Johan Santana who is also making his way back from elbow issues.  Santana threw 24 pitches off of a mound on Tuesday and swears he’s ready for Spring Training and Opening Day, and that might be the case, but I have some concerns about the full year. 

3rd Tier:  Clayton Kershaw, Jered Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Brandon Webb, John Lackey, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jair Jurrjens, Scott Baker, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Tommy Hanson, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Scott Kazmir, A.J. Burnett, Carlos Zambrano

     There’s some great talent to be found in this tier of pitchers; a great mix of youngsters and veterans who can all contribute to your fantasy success this year and should all be right about the same place in your fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings.  If you’re looking for youth with great upside, then Clayton Kersahw, Chad Billingsley, John Danks, Jered Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson make for great picks.  Weaver, Danks and Jurrjens all looked great in their third full year last year and should continue to produce, while Kershaw and for all intents and purposes Gallardo (missed almost all of 2008), are primed for their ”third year starter” breakouts.  Hanson dominated once he was up in the bigs last year and with the stuff he’s got, I expect big things from him even so early on in his career.  Billingsley struggled last season, but if he can come out again like he did in the first half of last year, then he should be fine.  He might be a good sell-high candidate if you’re nervous about his second half performance agaain.

     As for some of the veterans, Brandon Webb is hoping to stage a nice comeback, John Lackey is looking to rebound in Boston, James Shields should improve his overall numbers, and A.J. Burnett has been a great addition to the Yankees rotation.  I’ve never been a huge Ryan Dempster fan but his numbers from the past 2 seasons prove that he can eat innings and maintain decent ratios.  While Carlos Zambrano is obviously on the decline, he’s likely to throw atleast one more good season before he totally craps out.  And Scott Kazmir looked like he was getting back into form withthe move to the Angels.  He won’t ever be as dominant as he was in 2007, but should be a great #2 or 3 starter for your team.

     Rounding out the bunch are Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco and Max Scherzer.  They are all solid starters and their strikeouts and ratios should be a great help to your pitching staff.  Baker and Garza have both been favorites of mine for some time now.  They both could use some improvements in ERA, but this is, pretty much, Garza’s third full year, and Baker is coninuing to improve on his K/BB ratio.  Scherzer could be a nice fantasy sleeper this season.  Plenty of people will dismiss him due to the move to the AL, but with the heat he can bring, that nasty slider and the move to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, I expect great numbers from him in 2010.

4th Tier:  Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden, Brett Anderson, Erik Bedard, Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, Johnny Cueto, J.A. Happ, Scott Feldman, Clay Buchholz, Jorge De La Rosa, Andy Pettitte

     Now we’re moving into the area where research is of the utmost importance.  When you’re trying to build a pitching staff using mostly lower tiered guys, you have to do a lot of studying.  It’ll pay off in the end, especially if your offense is killer, but you have to be careful.  One of the first things you should be looking at is a player’s WHIP.  Sabermetric junkies will talk about DIPS and BIPA, but if you just take the time to check out a pitcher’s WHIP, you can come to the same conclusions, more or less.

     For example, before the shoulder surgery that will keep him out fo the first month, I would have had Ted Lilly up in this tier and hyping him big time.  For the last 3 seasons, Lilly has been one of the Cubs most reliable starters and has averaged a 1.15 WHIP over the last 3 years.  That’s what you should be looking for when picking up pitchers down here.  We’ll have to see where he ends up, but Erik Bedard is someone you should track that fits that mold. Same thing with Hiroki Kuroda.  He may have lost time to injury last year, but he’s got a 1.19 average WHIP for the last 3 seasons.  Ditto for Rich Harden, but he’s more prone to the DL than most.

     Amongst the others that I like here are Mark Buehrle, Randy Wolf, Brett Anderson, Kevin Slowey and even Jorge De La Rosa.  Buehrle and Wolf are nice reliable veterans, Anderson showed he’s ready for big league action, and Slowey is still a pitcher on the rise.  De La Rosa’s ratios might be a bit high, but they’re not terrible, especially if he’s going to give you close to 200 Ks.

     I can’t really downgrade based on personal feelings, but I don’t have much confidence in Wandy Rodriguez even coming close to his numbers from last year and I think J.A. Happ will struggle in his second season with the Phillies.  I also think Edwin Jackson, despite the move to the NL, could struggle in hitter-friendly Chase Field.  My jury is still out on Clay Buchholz, another season from Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt’s comeback, and Johnny Cueto.  I like them in this tier, but we’ll likely make adjustments in the Starting Pitcher Rankings and Cheat Sheets as we move along in the spring.

5th Tier:  Joel Pineiro, Gil Meche, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Sanchez, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Jeff Niemann, Joe Blanton, Derek Lowe, Randy Wells, Ervin Santana, Rick Porcello, Joe Saunders, Bronson Arroyo, Kevin Millwood, Jarrod Washburn, Jason Marquis, Brad Penny, Ted Lilly, Zach Duke, Aaron Cook, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Ben Sheets

     Same philosophy as the above tier when scouring through the numbers, but you’re likely goign to have to take a few more gambles down here.  You’ve got some good upside in guys like Rick Porcello, Joba Chamberlain (if he doesn’t end up in the pen), Jeff Niemann, Randy Wells, and David Price.  They’re all young enough that they can throw in a nice breakout season for you.  I also like Madison Bumgarner a lot, and whil ehe sits in this tier, you are likely to get him at a serious bargain price.  Just keep him on your radar.

     Now that Ben Sheets has signed with Oakland, you can start monitoring his sessions.  He’s a bit of a risk, not having pitched at all in 2009, but his upside is huge and the ballpark he now calls hom is cavernous.  And then there’s the legend of Stephen Strasburg.  The kid has crazy talent, no doubt.  But you are more than likely going to overpay this year for him.  If you’re in a keeper league then it might not be too bad, but I don’t necessairly trhink he’ll have that big an impact in 2010.  I figure he’ll spend the first half of the season in the minors and once the Nationals are completely out of it, they’ll bring him up to test the waters. 

     The rest are an interesting collection of veterans whom you may find to be quite valuable.  Fantasy sleepers I like include Jarrod Washburn, Jason Marquis and Brad Penny.  All thre looked solid last year and have all moved to teams with either a strong offense or a nice friendly ballpark.  I am not sold on Joel Pineiro, however.  People might reach for him, but his return to the AL with the Angels could bring back the nightmares of 2005 and 2006.  

6th Tier:  Barry Zito, Carl Pavano, Trevor Cahill, Ross Ohlendorff, Kevin Correia, Tommy Hunter, Wade Davis, Aaron Harang, Chien-Ming Wang, Kojii Uehara, Robinson Tejeda, Tim Wakefield, Homer Bailey, John Maine, Francisco Liriano, Brad Bergeson, Brett Myers, Justin Duchscherer, Ricky Romero, Chris Volstad, Marc Rzepczynski, Derek Holland, Kyle Lohse, Nick Blackburn, Kenshin Kawakami

     We’re getting deeper and deeper here and treading through some rough waters now.  This is where you need to be really selective.  Some interesting names like Trevor Cahill, Ricky Romero, Chris Volstad and Nick Blackburn all intrigue me, so those are names I will certainly monitor throughout the spring. 

     Justin Duchscherer is another interesting buy-low candidate, but we need to see, not only the condition of his hip, but his state of mind as well.  Guys who slip into DL stints due to depression make me nervous.  If the mental aspect is so important to a pitcher’s results, then we need to make sure his head’s on straight before drafting him. 

     You can definitely do worse than some of the veterans in here, but Barry Zito, Carl Pavano and Aaron Harang are always a concern.  If Zito and Pavano can duplicate last year’s totals, then they’ll be good for the back end of your rotation, but these are not consistent starters that you can rely on.  Harang?  I wouldn’t touch him these days, but he’s probably a better option than mmost of the guys you’ll see below.

7th Tier and beyond:  Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, John Lannan, Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Paul Maholm, Jon Garland, Jeremy Guthrie, Dallas Braden, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow, Bud Norris, Vicente Padilla, John Smoltz, Anibal Sanchez, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, David Huff, Mike Pelfrey, Armando Galarraga, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Justin Masterson, Jason Hammel, Ian Snell, Fausto Carmona

     Coin flips here, folks.  There are some here that have had their moments in the sun, but this is about as inconsistent as you can get.  Some interesting sleepers in Dallas Braden, Vicente Padilla , John Smoltz, Brandon Morrow, Justin Masterson and Armando Galaragga, but guys in this tier are guys you’re likely forced to play based on matchups.

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