Time to wrap up the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Position Tiers and what better way to finish it off than with our 9th inning firemen. Now, as I’ve said before, there are usually two schools of thought when it comes to closers and relief pitchers: 1. Get yourself atleast one high end closer and another lower tiered guy who may not cost as much and 2. Don’t worry about closers and just fish in the bargain bin for low end guys that are likely to grab you some saves. As someone who has tried both routes, let me just say that I am a firm believer in the first philosophy. Last year was really the first season I tried to go cheap on closers and it really bit me in the ass. I’m sure I’ve referenced this article I did for Addict Fantasy Sports before, but just in case you missed it, check out “Why Didn’t I Take a Closer?!?!?” and learn from my mistake. And after that, check out the tiers for this season…
Closers and Relief Pitchers
1st Tier: Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton
The clear cut, 2010 top 5 closers in the game right now. So says me and pretty much all of the fantasy baseball magazine right now. I’m sure some folks will try to replace a name here or there depending on their preferences, but as far as fantasy closers go, these are my picks. Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera have topped these rankings for years, and the only thing that could hold them off of it is retirement. They are about as automatic as you can get these days and obviously they both pitch for ultra-competitive teams. Depending on your style of league, these guys might cost you, but in the end, it’ll be worth it.
Joakim Soria is the perfect example of using a high end closer who resides on a bad team and being successful. Soria, or “The Mexecutioner” as he is known in baseball circles, took a little step back last year due to injury but still posted 30 saves with a 2.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP for the woeful Royals. Personally, I love him and won’t ever hesitate to draft him. The Royals might be a bad team, but they’re still going to win a bunch of games and, more than likely, those games should be close. He’s going to get saves. Hell, in 2008 the Royals won 75 games and Soria saved 42 of them.
Jonathan Papelbon and Jonathan Broxton round off the top tier. They are both elite, maintain fantastic ratios and will get plenty of save opps this season. Papelbon struggled a little bit last year as he seemed to be pitching a little more cautiously and walked more guys (24) than he has ever in a given year. He also had some troubles in the playoffs last year. But he should also bounce back nicely this season and get back to pitching closer to what we expect of him. Broxton, in his first full year as the Dodgers’ closer, was lights out. He did have some foot issues in the second half, but come on…114 Ks in 76 innings with 36 saves and a sub 1.00 WHIP? Sold!
2nd Tier: Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Marmol, Jose Valverde, Heath Bell, Brian Wilson, David Aardsma
The next group is almost as tasty as the first for the sake of fantasy baseball. While the Mets rotation may be suspect, Francisco Rodriguez remains a stalwart out of the pen. He did some struggling last year, especially with his ratios, but so did all the Mets. The team, this year, expects a full rebound from everyone (save for Carlos Beltran, I’m sure), so expect to see K-Rod return to form. He’s never going to duplicate his record breaking 62 save season, but let’s be realistic. If he save 35, then I’m happy.
Lou Pinella and the Cubs finally stopped screwing around and finally handed Carlos Marmol the job last year. Unfortunately, they didn’t get quite the results they hoped as his walk rate got a bit out of control. Perhaps it was the change in pressure and preparation he goes through changing from set-up to closer. But he should right that ship this year and should walk away from Spring Training with the confidence of his manager and his team. Marmol’s strikeout potential is off the charts so as long as he gets himself mentally in shape, he’ll be fine.
We’ve got another pair of new guys here in Heath Bell and David Aardsma. Bell had the pressure of taking over for the San Diego legend, Trevor Hoffman, and excelled. Another closer for a bad team, Bell notched 42 saves last year with a 2.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP for the dismal Padres and while he might not look like the most athletic guy out there, he’s got nasty stuff fo rthe 9th inning. Aardsma took a different route as the Mariners spent most of the first 2 months of 2008 unsuccessfully shuffling around their pen. Finally, they turned to Aardsma and the righty rang up 38 saves and 80 Ks in just uner 72 innings of work. The M’s did nothing to bring inany bullpen competition for him, so the job is his this season and should make for a nice pick.
Finishing off the group are new Tigers closer Jose Valverde and the Giants’ Brian Wilson. Some might be nervous about Valverde’s switch to the AL, but it’s a little different for 9th inning guys who are there just to throw the heat (see today’s quote). Although he missed a little time with injury last season he still managed 25 saves for the lowly Astros and actually improved on his ratios. I expect him to have a great year in Detroit! As for Wilson, well, he’ll make you plenty nervous but he still manages to get the job done. He’s got great stuff, but sometimes he’ll have the tendency to overthrow and will end up with a guy or two on base. Still, his ratios are tight and his save opps will be plenty. Draft with confidence.
3rd Tier: Bobby Jenks, Billy Wagner, Rafael Soriano, Brian Fuentes, Andrew Bailey, Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Cordero, Huston Street
This next group should all come a little cheaper in auctions and a little later in snake-drafts, but shoudl all still be reasonably reliable. There are high expectations in Chicago for a new slim and trim Bobby Jenks and I expect him to deliver. The Braves took a shot on Billy Wagner and should benefit from that experienced leadership in the pen, while the Rays picked up the Braves former closer in Rafael Soriano. It’s the first time in a long time that the Rays have a bonafide closer in their pen, but there may be an injury concern here or there. Still, I like him enough in Tampa to draft him.
Speaking of injury concerns, you’ve still got Huston Street closing out games in Colorado. He had a real nice comeback last year and although he lost some time, he still notched 35 saves for the always competitive Rockies. After that you’ve got old vets like the ageless Trevor Hoffman, Francisco “Coco” Cordero and Brian Fuentes. All three should be solid middle to late round closer picks, but you’ve always got to be on your guard. Aside from Hoffman’s age, you’ve also got the fact that both Fuentes and Cordero have had their struggles in their careers and could implode at any time. Always wise to handcuff them to their set-up guys.
And finally, there’s Andrew Bailey, 2009’s AL Rookie of the Year. Now I’m not going to deny Bailey’s stuff and he pitched beautifully for the hapless A’s last year. But there are 3 things to keep in mind — Brad Ziegler only lost his job due to injury, Joey Devine was the guy the A’s really wanted for the job, and this article I wrote a little way’s back. Bailey still makes for a good option right now, but always make sure you have a contingency plan.
4th Tier: Brad Lidge, Frank Francisco, Matt Capps, Ryan Franklin, Brandon Lyon, Jason Frasor, Chad Qualls, Kerry Wood, Leo Nunez, Mike Gonzalez
So this group is the guys that all, as of right now, have the closer’s job for their respective teams. They also have a few concerns of which you should be wary. Brad Lidge went from super-stud to super-suck last year and needs to prove he’s ready for duty this spring, Frank Francisco got hurt and struggled in his return (hurt me big time in the second half last year), Matt Capps stays on a crappy team and has a guy behind him that was originally promised the job, Brandon lyon moves from Detroit to hitter-friendly Houston, and Mike Gonzalez switches the other way and leaves Atlanta for hitter-friendly Camden Yards.
You also have some questions with Ryan Franklin who, while he did an amazing job last year for the Cards, is 38 years old and has plenty of vultures lurking. Chad Qualls takes back over in Arizona, a job he was given but lost when the D-Backs had enough confidence in him to bring in Valverde (that’s sarcasm, folks), Kerry Wood is…well, Kerry Wood, Jason Frasor has the nod right now after taking over the job last year,and Leo Nunez continues in Florida after winning the job in the second half last year. All will start off withthe job and get their save opps, but just be careful and pay attention to how they do alongside their set-up men.
5th Tier: Octavio Dotel, Joel Hanrahan, Fernando Rodney, Matt Lindstrom, Brad Ziegler, Scott Downs, Takashi Saito, LaTroy Hawkins, C.J. Wilson
And here come the set-up men. Well mostly. I’ve got Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan over here because they should be competing for the job in Pittsburgh this spring. They both have experience and they both have issues, so we’ll have to wait this one out. After that you’ve got guys who have experience as closers, may have lost the job at some point in their careers, but all could play a major role in 2010. Fernando Rodney backs up Fuentes who has lost his job before, Matt Lindstrom has experience and sits behind Lyon in Houston, and C.J. Wilson was pretty reliable taking over for Francisco in Texas.
Scott Downs was doing very well in Toronto until he got hurt, so I’m watching him and Frasor very closely this spring, and finally there’s LaTroy Hawkins who now backs up Hoffman in Milwaukee and Takashi Saito who was brought in as insurance for Wagner in Atlanta. Theses aren’t necessairly the guys you draft, but more the guys you pick up early on as waiver picks.
6th Tier and beyond: Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, John Grabow, George Sherrill, Chris Perez, Brian Bruney, Ryan Madson, J.P. Howell, Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt, Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Zumaya, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, Phil Hughes, Kevin Gregg
And speaking of waiver picks, that’s pretty much what you’ve got here. This tier is comprised of the possibles in case of injury or seriosu meltdowns. To highlight a few that I like, we have Franklin Morales in Colorado, Brian Bruney in Washington, Ryan Madson in Philly, and the tandem of Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan in St. Louis. I’d also keep and eye on Chris Perez in Cleveland and maybe J.P. Howell in Tampa. Again, no one you go after in your main draft but definitely keep them on your radar all spring long.
Click here for my 2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings and Cheat Sheets
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Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
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