What was once a position teeming with power hitting talent, third base is now becoming average, at best, when it comes to depth. In fact, in 2008, there were 19 fantasy third basemen that hit 20 or more HR (12 with 25+) for the season while in 2009, there were only 11 to hit 20 or more (8 with 25+). That’s a pretty significant drop in a one year span.
With the latest influx of young talent, there are a number of third sackers who have multi-position eligibility and are likely to be used elsewhere, most notably, second base. But before you go abandoning many of the guys you’ll see below the third tier, you should recognize that it might not always be best to use someone at another position when the hot corner pool is becoming so shallow these days. With the number of guys you can use over at second, it might be wise to invest a little heavier in some premier third base talent than to go cheap at the position. Here’s how the tiers are shaping up for me.
Third Basemen
1st Tier: Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria
After rebounding from a steroids scandal and offseason hip surgery, Alex Rodriguez proved that he is the unquestioned number one fantasy third baseman out there. Despite logging just 444 AB in 2009, A-Rod went on to crack 30 HR, knock in 100 RBI, swipe 14 bases and hit .286 for the season. After that, he went on to silence critics with a fantastic post-season performance and helped lead the Yankees to their 27th World Series championship. With a full season in that powerful New York lineup, he should easily return to the 40 HR plateau. He is a top 3 pick…in any league.
Joining A-Rod in the top tier is the powerful 24 year old Rays third sacker, Evan Longoria. Following a sensational rookie season, Longoria went on to improve in virtually every offensive category. He did have a few bumps in the road though as he almost vanished from June through August. He did hit 12 HR over that span, but his .229 average in that time made his owners a little crazy. Fortunately, a ridiculous September with a .327-7-19 batting line, wiped away everyone’s fears and Longoria was back on top. His third full season should bring huge rewards to those that invest in him in their fantasy baseball drafts.
2nd Tier: David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Reynolds, Pablo Sandoval, Kevin Youkilis
Investing in a second tier guy should also prove fruitful in fantasy baseball leagues all around. Ryan Zimmerman finally broke out with 33 HR last year and chipped in with a .292 average and 108 RBI. He probably went cheaper in ’08 as he continued to disappoint those that were waiting on him, but this year he’ll cost plenty. Still only 25, Zimmerman should be a pretty safe choice.
Joining Zimmerman here are sink-or-swim Mark Reynolds (44 HR with 223 strikeouts), the steady Kevin Youkilis, and hot up and comer, Pablo Sandoval. If your league doesn’t penalize for strikeouts, then Reynolds and his .260 average are a decent investment. I don’t necessarily see him cracking 40+ again, but I’ve been wrong before (maybe once or twice at most). Youkilis is a much better option here at third than at first and in 2009, he continued to keep his average above .300 while still hitting 27 HR. He should end up about the same this season. And as for Sandoval, the one they call Kung Fu Panda, well, he’s just getting started. He’ll probably shift across the diamond to first this season, but the free swinger should still top .300 in the average department while improving on last year’s 25 HR power.
Which brings me over to David Wright. Tough call here, but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and leaving him in the second tier. While I don’t see him returning to the 30 HR power his owners enjoyed at Shea Stadium, I don’t see Citi-Field keeping him below 20 HR this year. The Mets were riddled with injuries last year which obviously affected what pitches he saw and he lost time with a concussion after getting plunked in the head with a Matt Cain fastball. Still, his new park screams “pitcher-friendly” so I don’t see him returning to his 2008 totals. If you need a little more, check out his section in my Keeper League Advice series.
3rd Tier: Michael Young, Chone Figgins, Ian Stewart, Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre
The third tier brings some interesting characters to the table. You’ve got some potentially solid power from Ian Stewart, Aramis Ramirez and Adrian Beltre, but each brings a certain amount of risk to the table. First and foremost is the injury history of Ramirez, He’s certainly got the chops to plug 25+ HR in a full season, but with a variety of ailments, most notably a weak shoulder, you might only get 400 AB out of him. Beltre has had injuries of his own, but with him, it’s just a matter of which Adrian will show up. Forget 2004…that will NEVER happen again. But he did hit a minimum of 25 HR each year between 2006 and 2008, inclusive, and the fresh start in Boston might be enough to rejuvenate him a little. As for Stweart, well….rookie with power, you’re going to see some growing pains.
As for Michael Young and Chone Figgins, both a fairly reliable guys. Young rebounded nicely from two awful years to knock 22 HR with a .322 average last year, and hopefully he should do about the same. The Texas lineup is still strong and the ballpark is great, so if he’s locked down that third base defense, he should produce similar lines in 2010. Figgins, on the other hand is a little different of a story. As I said back around Thanksgiving when it was just a rumor, I’m not a big fan of his move to Seattle. Maybe the dimensions of Safeco will help him increase his hits total, but batting second behind Ichiro is certainly going to limit his stolen base opportunities. I’d be careful of fantasy baseball projections that have him stealing 40+ bases this year.
4th Tier: Chipper Jones, Mark DeRosa, Chris Davis, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Gordon Beckham, Jorge Cantu, Mark Teahen, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge
Now this tier is a pretty crazy mix for me with some upside, some old age and a whole bunch of question marks. I’ll start off first with the upside and that goes with Mark Teahen, Chris Davis, and Gordon Beckham. Now Beckham will play second, so he’s probably a better option over there, but as a long term keeper option, he should prove to be a valuable asset no matter where you draft him. Teahen comes to Chicago from K.C. and I can’t think of a better way to up his value. He no longer is forced to share playing time, although he is keeping the position warm for 20 year old Dayan Viciedo, and gets a much better ball park with a much better lineup hitting around him. I think he can hit around 18 to 20 dingers now that he’s not being jerked around by the Royals. And finally, there’s Davis who has all sorts of power potential but needs to curb the strikeouts or he’ll find himself back in the minors. The Rangers won’t baby him, so while he could hit 30 dingers in aseason, he could also spend more than half the year back in the farm system.
The middle of this pack, for me, has Jorge Cantu, Brandon Inge, and Mark DeRosa. All three can post fairly solid HR totals, but offer almost no speed and very little in the batting average department. I’d count on their usual totals for the 2010 season with a possible drop in HR for DeRosa. His move to San Francisco comes with a bad hitter’s park and the cold, damp air. I still think he can knock 15-18, but I don’t see him hitting out 20. Come to think of it, while I’m downgrading someone’s power, let me do the same to Inge who, sadly, lost his catcher eligibility finally. Last year’s 27 HR matched a career high for him from 2006, but if his follow up this year is anything like 2007, then bank on closer to 15 HR for him.
And then come the question marks. At the age of 38 (come April 24th), can Chipper Jones rebound from the worst offensive year in his career? Can he even stay healthy enough to play a full year? And what about Kevin Kouzmanoff? If the switch from one crappy ballpark to another isn’t bad enough, how about switching leagues? Will he be able to stay on top of American League pitching enough to reach his power potential? And come someone please tell me which Jhonny Peralta is showing up this year? He was listed as a “27 year old breakout” last year and wound up putting up career lows in average, HR, and walks with a career high in strikeouts. Will he rebound this year or will he be as mediocre as the rest of the Tribe?
5th Tier: Casey Blake, Chase Headley, Edwin Encarnacion, Placido Polanco, Alex Gordon, Scott Rolen, Brandon Wood, Pedro Feliz, Mat Gamel, Casey McGehee, David Freese, Garrett Atkins, Andy LaRoche
The 5th tier brings a little mix of its own to the table. You’ve got your standard veterans in Casey Blake, Pedro Feliz and even Placido Polanco (although Polanco is a better choice at second), you’ve got injury risks in Scott Rolen, Alex Gordon and Edwin Encarnacion, you’ve got some youth and inexperience in Chase Headley, Brandon Wood, Mat Gamel/Casey McGehee, David Freese, and Andy LaRoche, and you’ve got a potential comeback in Garrett Atkins.
If I’m fishing in this tier, I’m going for youth first and experience later. Headley and Wood should prove to be adequate third sackers and decent fantasy baseball sleepers this year. Headley’s 12 HR and 31 doubles indicate power potential and we’ve all known about Wood’s abilities for the last few years. If they can play solidly through the spring, I can see both putting up quality stats all year long. The Gamel/McGeheee situation is a tough one. The spring should ultimately determine who starts, but right now I’m leaning towards McGehee. They both have solid power potential, but McGehee is a bit more seasoned at 27 and Gamel has room to grow at 24. The ideal situation should come later in the season when Rickie Weeks eventually goes down and both youngsters have a chance to shine.
As for the experienced end, I think Atkins could do well in Baltimore if his head is on straight, and I like Rolen to start the year off hot in Cincinnati. If I end up with any of these other guys, it must mean that my team crushes at every other position.
6th Tier and beyond: Eric Chavez, Brett Wallace, Omar Infante, Emilio Bonifacio, Wes Helms, Melvin Mora, Jerry Hairston, Greg Dobbs, Adam Rosales, Josh Fields, Brendan Harris, Joe Crede, Mike Lowell, Ty Wigginton, Pedro Alvarez
And finally, we have the back-ups and the also-rans. The only reason any of these guys are picked up on draft day by you is because you’ve filled out your entire roster and are just taking a shot in the dark. OK, so maybe it’s not that bad, but in this final tier, the only 3 guys I’m even considering for my roster are Brett Wallace, Emilio Bonifacio and Pedro Alvarez.
Bonifacio has the most legitimate experience in the bigs, but without a starting job in Florida, he could find himself being a pich runner/defensive replacement, at best. The longshot chance for him is if the Marlins do decide to trade Dan Uggla which would put either Chris Coghlan or Bonifacio at second base. The other would likely take over left field. Rosales filled in nicely for a little while last season and could be in line for some action, given Rolen’s age. Wallace and Alvarez both project to be quality starting third basemen, but like I and the fantasy baseball magazines have said, they’re both likely another year or two away.
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