So this article is coming at you in two installments as I promised the wife I’d spend some time with her this weekend. I run a fantasy baseball keeper league and protects are due tomorrow night, and since it’s Valentine’s Day, I have to dedicate some time for lovey dovey stuff that this Hallmark holiday dictates. That being said…
Rookie, rookies, rookies. Fantasy folk love the youngsters. It’s usually the keeper leaguers that drool over the new crop of up and comers as they, or should I say we, are always looking to be the one to discover the next Albert Pujols. But even the non-keeper fantasy GMs are enamored with finding huge rookie talent way down in the depths of the fantasy draft. As I’ve always preached, it’s your late round picks that pan out that win you the championship, so finding a rookie down in the 21st round of your draft and have him perform like a 3rd or 4th rounder is a huge bonus.
We’re going to break the 2010 rookies down into two categories. The first, which we’ll cover now are the rookies that have already been penciled in as the starters for their respective teams. Obviously, a lot will hinge on how well they perform this spring, but as it stands today, these are the guys to watch because, wherever they are, it’s apparently their job to lose. On Monday, we’ll then discuss the rookies that, while they don’t have a starting gig today, they could, at some point this season, take over at a position and make a significant fantasy impact here in the 2010 season. There’s lots of ground to cover, so let’s get started…
2010 Fantasy Baseball Rookies
Penciled In As Starters
Tommy Manzella, SS HOU – For lack of a better way to put it, we’re looking at the NL version of Adam Everett here. Manzella does great work with the glove, minimal work with the bat. His career minor league stats don’t dazzle anyone and he celebrated his best year last season in Triple-A with 9 HR and 12 SB in 526 AB. Not a whole lot of fantasy value there, is it? But since he’s penciled in as the starter and the Astros don’t appear to be signing anyone else (maybe Felipe Lopez has an outside chance), he shoul dbe getting regular at bats. There doesn’t seem to be a whol elot of depth at short, but Manzella is still a very late round flyer.
Alcides Escobar, SS MIL — Look at any of the webistes or fantasy baseball magazines and you’ll see plenty of people calling Escobar the next Jose Reyes. I’ll let the kid play a full season before declaring that, myself, but he has looked pretty good so far. Bottom line, Escobar is a base-stealer…a potential burner. I’m not sure if the Brewers are going to bat him or Carlos Gomez at leadoff, but if it’s Escobar, we could be in line for a minimum of 30 SB this season….upwards of 40 if he can learn to draw a walk and keep that OBP up. He doesn’t have too much in the power department, but scouts project him to develop into the 15 HR range. Someone in your league is probably already high on him, so he could actually go higher than he should right now, but show some restraint. It’s nice to grab a potential 15-50 guy, but not at the expense of too many fantasy baseball auction dollars or too high a draft choice. Mid to late rounds at best right now.
David Freese, 3B STL — Another rookie that can be found in my list of Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Freese is the favorite for the third base job in St. Louis. But keep an eye on him this spring as apparently Tyler Greene is being given as much of a shot as anyone to unseat Freese. However, with Brendan Ryan’s wrist surgery, it might be wise for the Cards to give the job to Freese and use Greene as the immediate back-up to Julio Lugo at short. But back to Freese. I actually like this kid a lot. Real nice power potential and hits for a nice high average. He may hit a few bumps in the road along the way, but could be a real nice late round sleeper as you’ll read in the article linked above.
Madison Bumgarner, SP SF – Talk to anyone who’s in a fantasy baseball auction league with me and they”ll laugh when you ask about Bumgarner. Some will say they’re staying away from him because they know how much I like this kid and others will talk about how they’ll try to bid him upon me to cut into my bid dollars. Either way, I’ll likely own him in more than one league and I’ll be happy to do it. There’s a good chance that the Giants will limit Bumgarner’s innings this yeear and they’ll probably keep him on a strict pitch count. But he’s slotted as their 5th starter and I’ll take 150 innings with 150 Ks and better than average ratios any day. I’m sure as a rookie, we’ll see a few rough outings, but once he finds his groove, he’s going to be a dream to own.
Lou Marson, C CLE — As it stands right now, Marson is the favorite for the job in Cleveland, but he will be in a battle with Wyatt Toregas this spring. Whichever guy lands the gig though, it’s probably only for a little while as the Tribe is hoping catching prospect Carlos Santana will be ready for major league suty sooner rather than later. I don’t see too much power potential there and there’s little or no speed either. The batting average has been abit of an issue over time, but last year in Triple-A he was hitting .314 before he got called up and hit .246 in 61 big league at bats last year. Put him on the back burner for now and look elsewhere for your backstop.
Michael Brantley, OF CLE — Another kid in Cleveland who will compete for a job this spring, but Tribe manager Manny Acta has already said that Brantley is the front-runner for the job and has him penciled in as a starter right now. Another guy with minimal pop but great speed and there’s even been a mention of Brantley taking over the leadoff spot from Grady Sizemore. He hit .313 in 122 AB in his call-up last September and maintained a solid .358 OBP. His walk rate is also up there for leadoff hitters, so keep an eye on him this spring. If he wins the job outright over Trevor Crowe and a hodge-podge of other assorted characters, he could be a great late round stolen base guy.
Adam Moore, C SEA — Personally, I think we may have a pretty decent sleeper here in Moore. He’s listed as a starter on the Mariner’s depth chart, but will likely compete with Rob Johnson for full time duties this spring. Not to worry though as Johnson, coming off of his third hip surgery, likely won’t be able to handle the job himself, so at worst, Moore should see about half the at bats of a full season. That is until he starts whacking the back and the M’s realize that he’s the guy for them. Solid power potential and a .300+ average in the minors. He could stand to cut down on the Ks and increase the walks, but what can you expect from a rookie?
Logan Morrison/Gaby Sanchez, 1B FLA — Two rookies, one position, big spring battle ahead. This should be a fun battle to watch, but I’m giving the edge to Morrison right now. I think his power potential is much better than Sanchez’ and he is a better contact hitter who also draws walks at a very decent rate. Morrison missed all of last year with a wrist injury, but becasue that happened so early on and he’s had so much more time to prepare himself again, that I don’t think the injury will hurt his power this season. But the organization likes Sanchez, so he’ll get every opportunity they can afford him. Keep them both on your radar and if/when Morrison wins the job, consider him a late round sleeper if you’re looking for corner infield help.
Brian Matusz, SP BAL — Just under the wire for rookie status this season but I’d be more inspired if he pitched for a better team in a less hitter friendly ballpark. Matusz really impressed people last year as he started off slowly during his call-up, but made the necessary adjustments to allow him to go 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA with 15 Ks in his final three starts. His overall numbers from last year should be high enough to scare plenty of people off, but if he builds on what we saw in late September, then you could have a really nice, super late round sleeper on your hands.
Wade Davis, SP TB — Lots of people are speculating that Davis was the reason the Rays were able to part with Scott Kazmir so easily last season. He posted solid numbers in the minors last season – 10-8 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP with 140 Ks in just under 159 innings — and was just as consistent in his September call-up. Actually, he improved his K/9 ratio up in the bigs and the Rays have high hopes for him. But like Bumgarner and Matusz, the youngster will be watched closely this season and won’t be allowed to overthrow. Still, he’s listed as the Rays 5th starter and could be a great late round pick-up for you in the draft.
Scott Sizemore, 2B DET — Solid average, great OBP, and nice developing power; three things I know I’m looking for in a rookie middle infielder. The Tigers too, apparently, as they happily let Placido Polanco walk during the offseason and handed the job over the Sizemore without any concerns. The only issue is that he has yet to even sniff an at bat in the majors, so how he reacts to big league pitching is obviously in question. Keep an eye on him this spring and watch how he develops. Just be careful that you don’t fall for early hype while pitchers are still playing around with their mechanics at the start of the spring. See how he hits them closer to the end of March when they’ve found their groove.
Austin Jackson, OF DET – So not to sound like I’m gushing too much about this kid, I’ll just defer to the same Sleeper article that included Freese. But the bottom line is that I like Jackson. I like his potential, I like his speed and I like that the Tigers are more than likely just handing the job over to him. Late round, cheap steals. I love it!
Honorable Mentions
The following group of players, due to MLB restrictions of no more than 130 AB to qualify for rookie status, will not be able to compete for Rookie of the Year honors, but are still green enough for me to list them here. The best part is that a lot of guys that fall into this category don’t get the same attention and therefore slip through the cracks a little more often.
Julio Borbon, OF TEX — Again, someone in your league is all over him, so don’t go spending too much or grabbing him too soon. But he’s definitely a candidate to steal plenty of bases and score tons of runs atop the Rangers lineup.
Drew Stubbs, OF CIN — Another late round speed option here, but with plenty more power potential, especially in Cincinnati. The strikeouts are a downer and should keep his average down, but he coul dbe in line for a fantastic “rookie” season.
Cliff Pennington, SS OAK — Statistics -wise, he could be a clone of Tommy Manzella. Lots of glove, very little stick.
Brandon Wood, 3B LAA — His first full year with the job. Now we just have to see if he can finally mash in the bigs the way he did in the minors.
Matt LaPorta, 1B, CLE – Plenty of power there, but he needs some time to mature as a hitter. Should eventually breeze past the 20 HR barrier, but I’m not sold just yet.
Cameron Maybin, OF FLA — The always desired power/speed combo, but like Wood, has yet to show it off in the bigs. People are pretty down on him these days so he coul dbe a steal late in your draft.
Kyle Blanks, OF SD — At 6′ 6″, 285 lbs, this kid is a monster. He gets the nod in RF with the move of Chase Headley to third and could be a huge stick to grab late in your draft. Sadly, Petco Park and his experience could hinder him this season, but when he does put it all together, look out!
Look for Part 2 of the Rookie Report on Monday as I discuss the rookies who could eventually play their way into a starting role; maybe not immediately, but certainly this season.
And remember, for the best in free fantasy baseball advice, 2010 fantasy baseball player rankings, fantasy baseball draft help, and fantasy baseball strategy, stick with The Fantasy Baseball Buzz and I’ll have you at the top of your standings in no time.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
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