Last night's debut put Strasburg's fantasy value above the stratosphere
Fantasy baseball rookies are the best, plain and simple. With the successful debuts last night of Stephen Strasburg and Michael Stanton, I just can’t help cracking a big ol’ smile thinking about all of these top rookies that are adorning the rosters of the three keeper leagues in which I play. Aside from Strasburg and Stanton, I also own Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Starlin Castro, Mike Leake, and Pedro Alvarez. Leake and Heyward started the season with their respective big clubs, Alvarez could be up soon, and everyone else is already up and thriving in the majors. Not only is it making me look good amongst my league mates, but it’s also giving me some OUTSTANDING trade bait that could very well win me all three leagues.
When it comes to fantasy baseball rookies, there are usually two schools of thought; two types of owners. On one hand, you’ve got guys that drool over each and every rookie that gets hyped on web sites and fantasy baseball magazines and have as many of them on their roster as they can fit. On the other side of the spectrum, you’ve got those that usually dismiss the youngsters and put the fate of their season solely on guys with proven track records. Me? I’m right there in the middle. I’ll scout a selection of rookies and pick two, maybe three, that I’ll chase depending on how I feel they will project as a major leaguer, regardless of whether or not they start the season with the big club. Some guys, like Hanley Ramirez and Evan Longoria, I plan to hold onto, but most that I go after each year, I do for the sole purpose of selling high. And as the case seems to be this season…really high!
Now I’m sure, after Strasburg’s debut last night, that you’d think me insane for even entertaining the idea of trading the 6′ 4″ righty phenom. He looked amazing last night with full command of a dazzling 4 pitch arsenal. Both his 2 and 4 seamer were being hurled at 96+ mph in the sixth and seventh inning, his curve looked almost as ridiculous as he made the Pirates look at the plate, and his changeup was tight. His 7 IP 4 H 2 ER 0 BB 14 K pitching line is what fantasy dreams are built upon. And if you look at the National’s upcoming schedule and just count ahead every 5 games to see who he’ll take on next, you’ve got to be foaming at the mouth. Cleveland? The White Sox? Baltimore? Atlanta? San Diego? San Francisco? That’s maybe one tough game (the Braves) between now and the All Star Break. You’ve got to be kidding me. He could theoretically be 7-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA and like 70 strikeouts before the Break. Yes, that’s on the severely optimistic side, but not too far out of the realm of possibility.
So why would I even consider trading what could be the winner of the NL Cy Young award for the next couple of years? It’s very easy. First of all, there’s no guarantee on anything. Mark Prior looked outstanding in 9 of his first 10 starts and look at him now. I can’t even tell you how many times Costas and Co. made references to Kerry Wood, but look at what happened to him. It’s tough with pitchers. For every one Tim Lincecum out there, you’ve got fifty Homer Baileys and with every 100 mph fastball and every crazy break on a curve, you’re just that much closer to elbow and/or shoulder damage. Now, I’m not saying it will happen. Lincecum injury talk hasn’t really been a hot topic until just a couple of weeks ago, but why even wait that long? Strasburg’s fantasy value is through the roof right now and should continue to stay in the stratosphere until his first legitimate hiccup. Even then, it will still be higher than any other prospect’s in baseball. If I’m in contention, especially in a keeper league, then trading Strasburg could be the move of the year. The price that some people will pay is mind-boggling and if I can walk away with a bounty of players that could help me lock into a fantasy league title today for a kid who’s pitched just one game at the major league level, well then that’s just smart management.
Maybin is the perfect example of all hype and no substance
Let me just deviate from the original point for a second here and say that one of the biggest misconceptions in fantasy baseball keeper leagues is that you have to always build for the future. Not the case, in my opinion. Yes, you’d like to have a nice core group of guys to carry with you from year to year, but if you have the opportunity to win now, then dammit, you take that opportunity. There will always be a slew of hot, young prospects with the start of each new season, so don’t pass up on a chance to win today just so you can glom a few keepers for the future. You can win your league just as easily with a fresh draft as you can protecting a bunch of flash-in-the-pan, overly-hyped youngsters. Just ask the guys this year who have passed on Ian Stewart and Cameron Maybin in favor of guys like Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rios, and Vernon Wells. Remember, the only things in life that are certain are death and taxes. Quality production, year in and year out, from MLB rookies is not listed there.
Now back to business…
Just like Strasburg, the same goes for the rest of this phenomenal rookie class of 2010. Sure, Jason Heyward looks like he’s going to be a force for years to come, but does that mean he is untradeable in fantasy play? No way! Not if it means you can vault to the top of your standings because some bottom-feeder in your league is willing to give you the moon for him. Michael Stanton had a very successful 3 for 5 with 2 runs scored debut last night for the Marlins and we’re expecting big power numbers from him, right? Well, if you want to hold onto Jay Bruce 2.0, then he’s your guy. But if someone in your league believes he’s the next Ryan Braun, then why not reap the benefits now? Starlin Castro? Some people have had the audacity to compare him to Hanley, so if one of those people is in your league, then go loot his roster!
Even if you’re not in contention for this year, all of these youngsters can still help you out in a trade to help set you up for next year. Yes, you’d like to keep guys like Posey and Castro and Heyward for next year, but if someone in your league is willing to trade a Braun, a Ramirez or a Miguel Cabrera for a package of non-protects and one or two of these rookies, well then why not? Personally, I’d much rather walk in with Cabrera or Braun than I would Stanton or Castro. It’s about picking and choosing which guys you think will project better in the long run. Would I trade Strasburg or Heyward over Stanton, Castro , or Posey? No likely. But if dealing one of them can net me a consensus top 5 pick in fantasy baseball drafts, then I’d be an idiot not to.
Now as I go back and read through this, I realize that I’ve really skewed this article towards fantasy baseball keeper leagues. In my defense, it’s where rookies like this have the most relevance in terms of trade value, but there’s also plenty of value in them for non-keeper leagues as well. Sitting near the bottom of your standings with a bunch of hot rookies and need to fix your roster? Well, what’s wrong with dealing Strasburg to a top team for some power help that you might be lacking? Just because it’s a non-keeper league doesn’t mean that there aren’t owners drooling over an influx of hot talent. Not to mention all the “homers” out there that are willing to pay premium prices for an uber-prospect on their favorite team. I’ve seen plenty of Cubs fans in a bidding war over Castro and he’s only hitting .280 with 2 HR and 1 stolen base. Of course, these are also the guys who still can’t let go of Aramis Ramirez, but that’s another story for another day.
Bottom line here is that you can’t think that, just because a hot, up and coming rookie has a good start to his career, he is untradeable. On the contrary. You should be smart about it. Evaluate your league and your place in the standings, and realistically determine what sort of a commodity you have here. If you have the chance to win it all at the expense of one or two of them, then make that move. If trading them can net you a bigger and better protect for the following season, then I’m all for that too. If, in a non-keeper league, dealing one or two of them can get you back in contention, then you’re damn right, you go for it. Forget the notion of a player being untradeable. You’re only limiting yourself and your potential to be a perennial champion.
For the best in free fantasy baseball advice, tips,strategies, free agent waiver wire suggestions, and analysis, stick with The Fantasy Baseball Buzz and I’ll have you at the top of your standings in no time. And, as always, for all questions, thoughts and/or comments related to the baseball fantasy world or not, you can reach me through the comments section below or at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
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Howard,
I have been waiting for Montero to come off my DL, but have been satisfied with Yadier Molina as my fill-in catcher over that period. This Puts me in a pickle trying to decide who if anyone on my roster to let go in favor of holding onto Molina long enough to know Montero is going to finish the season without a set back. Really, not looking forward to this weekend when Montero comes off the DL.
I am really surprised that your fantasy rosters have that many young unproven prospects……