If the dead arm issues are behind him, Liriano could be even better down the stretch
As the month of August seems to just race on by, fantasy baseball GMs are trying to either solidify themselves at the top of the standings in their roto leagues or bolstering their rosters for the upcoming head to head league playoffs. If your fantasy league’s trade deadline hasn’t already passed, it’s about to, and you’re going to need to take a few last shots at some players for the stretch run. Which brings me back to everyone’s favortie sabermetric, F.I.P — Fielding Independent Pitching. Before you continue, if you haven’t already seen it, you should go back and check my spring traing article on this very same topic. I don’t want to sound too bragadocious, but using my own scouting and the use of F.I.P., my pitching here in the second half has been sick and has vaulted me in the standings of both my roto and head to head leagues. Hopefully, this article will be able to do the same for you.
Now, obviously, using F.I.P. and ERA differentials isn’t a fool-proof system. There are no guarantees that there aren’t exceptions to the rule. But I have found that, as a guideline, the metric has been a very strong indicator for determining which starting pitchers should see an improvement and which should see a regression. The first of the two tables below gives you ten pitchers you should probably target as they are expected to improve based on the comparison of their current ERA and F.I.P. The second shows you who seems to be pitching a little over their heads this season and could be headed for some rough outings ahead.
| ERA | FIP | Differential | |
| Francisco Liriano | 3.33 | 2.14 | 1.19 |
| Brandon Morrow | 4.45 | 3.26 | 1.19 |
| Jason Hammel | 4.38 | 3.54 | 0.84 |
| Randy Wells | 4.37 | 3.55 | 0.82 |
| Scott Baker | 4.70 | 3.88 | 0.82 |
| Zack Greinke | 4.14 | 3.46 | 0.68 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 4.57 | 3.98 | 0.59 |
| Tommy Hanson | 3.69 | 3.13 | 0.56 |
| Dan Haren | 4.47 | 3.91 | 0.56 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 4.34 | 3.82 | 0.52 |
| ERA | FIP | Differential | |
| Tim Hudson | 2.24 | 4.01 | -1.77 |
| Trevor Cahill | 2.56 | 4.07 | -1.51 |
| Clay Buchholz | 2.66 | 3.76 | -1.10 |
| Andy Pettitte | 2.88 | 3.96 | -1.08 |
| Mat Latos | 2.36 | 3.33 | -0.97 |
| Chris Carpenter | 2.89 | 3.78 | -0.89 |
| Jaime Garcia | 2.53 | 3.34 | -0.81 |
| Jason Vargas | 3.12 | 3.92 | -0.80 |
| C.J. Wilson | 3.30 | 4.01 | -0.71 |
| Matt Cain | 3.06 | 3.75 | -0.69 |
**Statistics through August 9, 2010
Some pretty interesting names on both charts, huh? But let’s start with the first…
Let’s face facts…when making a deal for a player, there are two main types of traders out there. There are those that trade based on what the player has done to date and there are those that trade based on projections and expectations. I like to think of myself as more of the latter. For example, Ubaldo Jimenez had a phenomenal first half. Phenomenal. But if I’m looking to make a deal for a starting pitcher to help my team for the second half, Jimenez’ 15 wins, 113 strikeouts, and ridiculous 2.20 ERA don’t really help me, now do they? I’m not trading for those stats, I’m trading for whatever he does from this point moving forward.
So in looking at the first table, if I’m looking for upper echelon but want to buy low, then guys like Zack Greinke and Dan Haren certainly fit the bill. Now again, it’s not an exact science we’re dealing with, so you have to be careful. While I’d likely try to scoop Greinke, I may pause at Haren due to the fact that he traditionally regresses in the second half and has also made the change to the American League. However, he also has moved to a better defensive club than Arizona, so things could balance out for him. So far, with the Angels, he is 1-2 in 4 starts but has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, both improvements from his first half totals.
But the trick is to act fast. For the casual fantasy GM, you may be able to take your time, but if you’ve got a strong group of owners, these guys won’t last or be given up. Brandon Morrow and Randy Wells have both looked sharp here in the second half as have Ricky Nolasco and Wandy Rodriguez. Of course, I can’t stand Wandy and he’s always just a few pitches away from imploding on the mound, but he has improved nonetheless. Also, be careful with Francisco Liriano. While he sits atop the list and could potentially be a gamer changer in your league, he has experienced some dead arm issues lately. Monitor his health before anything, but if he’s available via trade or waiver claim, then you should definitely make a move.
Which now brings me to the second table. The regressors, if you will. Some big names on this list here, and there could have been quite a few more. Like the aforementioned Ubaldo Jimenez, for example. He was up there in the differential, but not enough to crack my top 10. Still, it gives credence to the metric as Jimenez’ second half hasn’t been nearly as strong and my 6-6, 3.60 ERA second half prediction is looking better and better each week that passes.
Some of the names on the second list are pretty tough to even think about sitting right now, let alone trading. Tim Hudson has rolled along here in the second half, as has Mat Latos and Chris Carpenter. But out of those three, the only one I’m putting any kind of real trust in is Carpenter. My concerns with both Latos and Hudson are based in innings pitched. Hudson has atleast thrown 200+ innings before in his career, but after major surgery and having thrown just 180 innings over the last 2 seasons combined, makes me a little nervous about a late August/early September lapse. Same for Latos, who has already surpassed his career high for innings pitched in a season. I know it might be a tough pill to swallow, but if I’m owning either of them, then I’d be shopping them hard at my deadline. You could easily pick up a solid starting pitcher and likely a decent bat to go with it.
And some of the names on the list, we’ve already seen a regression. Jaime Garcia has had his struggles, Jason Vargas’ walk rate is increasing, Matt Cain’s last outing wasn’t too hot, and C.J. Wilson is slowing down in comparison to his first half dominance. I’m not saying that these guys will necessairly go in the tank during your stretch run, but all will likley struggle to repeat their first half success.
Tomorrow, we’ll talk hitters and BABIP, another metric that is going mainstream, but for now…
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
For the best in free fantasy baseball advice, tips, strategies, free agent waiver wire suggestions, and analysis, stick with The Fantasy Baseball Buzz and I’ll have you at the top of your standings in no time. And, as always, for all questions, thoughts and/or comments related to the baseball fantasy world or not, you can reach me through the comments section below or at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.
Loading ...