As we move into the final weekend before the start of the regular season, fantasy baseball junkies are still drafting and always looking for that last minute bit of advice; just one more tidbit of information to help give them an edge over their opponents. Well, as my wife and I were driving down to see her parents (an 8 hour trip), I realized that with all the craziness that’s going on in our lives right now (family emergency), my poor wife, a fantasy baseball goddess, has had almost no time to prepare for our upcoming drafts. I still have three to go still and she has two. Not only did she need those last minute tips, but she needed a full on offseason recap and pre-draft analysis.
So to help her along, I told her to take the first two hours behind the wheel and baseball school was in session. Armed with printouts of our entire free agent player pool (it’s a keeper league), I verbalized player profiles, fantasy baseball projections, and all of the latest spring training updates. We talked about player movement, fantasy impact and auction values, and outlooks for each and every MLB team for the 2010 season. It was an intense, yet informative, cram session and my wife walked away form it with that confident little smile she gets to show me that she’s now ready for the season.
Today, I’m going to share some random fantasy baseball thoughts from yesterday’s classroom session and hopefully, some of the information will help you in the middle to late rounds of your draft. Again, this wasn’t about the big boys. We all know what we should expect form guys like Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira. This was about the role players, the sleepers, and the guys that should be rounding out your squad. If you’ve already experienced draft day, then this should probably get you a jump start on your waiver wire studies. Guys slip through the cracks all of the time, so if you’ve got someone available that you’re debating whether or not to pick up, some of these thoughts may help you in your decision making process.
Since I broke everyting down by position for her, I’ll do the same here…
Catchers
I’m still not 100% sold on Miguel Montero having this crazy huge season that some are projecting for him this year, but the fact that the Diamondbacks are actively shopping Chris Snyder makes me more comfortable that he’s their clear cut number one in spite of his less than spectacular spring.
Bengie Molina is slipping in drafts and you should take advantage of that. Sure he’s gettin golder, but don’t think that he won’t be able to come close to matching his totals over the last 2 seasons. The only reason he’s still in San Francisco is because no one wanted to give the pudgy old guy a multi-year deal. Look for him to prove everyon ewrong this season.
For those that have drafted or are thinking of drafting Chris Iannetta, you better be prapred for a lot of frustration. Miguel Olivo showed enough of his power last year that, even with a small regression, this could sit in a platoon all season long.
Steer clear of Texas catchers. Jarrod Saltalamacchia will be an injury concern all year, but not enough to allow Taylor Teagarden the opportunity to fully steal the job away. They’ll be fighting each other for at bats all season.
I hope Alex Avila spends as much time as he can right now with the Tigers’ pitching staff to build a better rapport with all of them. He’s going to start the season in the minors, but hopefully come up at some point soon because Gerald Laird really stinks. I do n’t care what his sprintotals look like or how well he can perform in a bar fight. Plenty of other catchers out there.
This could be the year to finally draft Jeff Clement. You gotta love the catcher eligibility for the guy who will play first base all season. Even if it is for the Pirates.
The Jason Castro/J.R. Towles battle for the Astros starting job will come down to the end, I’m sure. They’re having similarly successful springs at the plate, so it will likely come down to defense and ability to handle the pitching staff, which I see them fairly equal as well. Personally, I like Castro here as I think he’s got the better power potential, and we’ve already seen that Towles can have a nice spring and vanish during the regular season. Whichever one doesn’t win the job will be headed to the minors as manager Brad Mills still wants Humberto Quintero as the primary backup.
First Basemen
Yet another opportunity to take a dig at Lance Berkman here. I’ve gone through the every other year theory regarding his batting average, and I’ve already talked about his declining power over the last 3 years. Now, his arthroscopic knee surgery could have him starting the season on the DL. ‘Nuff said.
It’s a make it or break it year for James Loney as a viable fantasy option at first base. He’s 26 years old come May 7th, an apparent prime year and said that he was going hit for more power this season. Well, he’s brought his spring average upt to .313 from .214 in the last week, but still only has one home run to date, so you be the judge. Personally, I think it’d be a miracle if Loney hits more than 15 dingers this year, and if he does happpen to, then what’s it going do to his average?
I’d really like to see Adam LaRoche start the season like he finishes it. With hitter friendly Chase Field as his new home, I think he can improve to the 30 HR plateau if he can just find his stroke early enough.
No faith in a Russell Branyan repeat.
Modest faith in Nick Johnson staying healthy this year.
Plenty of faith in Troy Glaus making a successful return….even if I like Freddie Freeman more in the long run.
Second Basemen
The more I learn, the less concerned I think I am about Brian Roberts. I think when all is said and done, he’ll be fine and just as productive as he’s been. Sure, we might see a flare up of the back troubles later on in the season, but nothing that’s going to hurt his 2010 fantasy value.
With Mat Gamel on the shelf for an extended period of time, I am loving Casey McGehee more and more. Take advantage of that eligibility and use him over here at second despite the fact that he’ll be playing third all year.
I’m calling for a Kelly Johnson rebound. He’s going to make a real nice sleeper this year.
Despite this recent article written by Jason Collette from Fanball, I’m still going to try and grab Sean Rodriguez late. Collette makes some very sensible points but I’m just not ready to dismiss his torrid spring. I’m not saying he’s going to suddenly be the next Chase Utley, but I definitely see him beaking out more than falling down.
Two guys with 2B eligibility that you might want to take a chance on: Willie Harris and Eugenio Velez. Harris will get the Opening Day start in the outfield for the Nats and could stay there for the majority of the season if Justin Maxwell doesn’t step up his game. Velez is the only guy on the Giants team with speed right now, so look for him to spell the outfielders while also filling in for the oft injured Freddy Sanchez.
Third Basemen
This position gets surprisingly thin fairly quickly, so keep track of who needs help at the hot corner and who doesn’t.
I like the fact that Brandon Wood isn’t having some big spectacular spring. It should keep his expected value pretty low could allow you to sneak him by in the later rounds. It’s a make it or break it year for him.
Should be interesting to see how the 3B slot fills out for the Royals. With Alex Gordon lost to a broken thumb and Josh Fields stinking it up this spring, I’m curious to see how the team holds it together. Perhaps and experiment over the re with Mike Aviles?
Speaking of Royals regets, I think Mark Teahen could have a solid year for the White Sox. I’m expecting a decent .275ish averagwith 18 to 20 HR now that he’s back to his normal position.
The third base eligibility is no joke if Jose Bautista’s insane spring carries over into the regular season. In just 34 at bats he’s got 3 HR and 5 doubles with a .441 average. But his standard in-season numbers are low end for a third baseman though, so be careful. If he blows his wad in Spring Training, then you’re left with nothing more than a 15 HR guy at the corner.
I made David Freese a late round sleeper pick of mine a while back and I’m sticking with it. The power might not be the best we’ve seen, but tucked inside that Cardinals lineup, he could certainly do some good things as your corner guy.
Shortstops
Yunel Escobar is goinhave a breakout season this year and should be grabbed right after the elite shortstops are gone. H’s improved across th board every year, turns 27 this season, and it already lighting it up this spring.
People that are high on Ian Desmond should be happy with what we’ve heard lately, but should definitely err on the side of caution. I think the kid has amazing potential, but I have a hard time seeing the Nationals leaving Cristian Guzman on the bench. One little slump from Desmond to start the season could quiet down the h as he gets tossed back to the minors.
I didn’t think it was possible, but both Tommy Manzella and Cliff Pennington have less pop in their bats than Yuniesky Betancourt. Now that’s bad.
Let’s all hope that Stephen Drew’s hot spring translates into the regular season. It’d be nice to see him go back to those 2008 totals.
I can’t wait to do a post-season comparison of Alcides Escobar and Elvis Andrus. They are eerily similar with Andrus having a little more power and Escobar hitting for a better average. But damn, can they both fly on basepaths.
Outfielders
Brad Hawpe is one of the most underrated outfielders in the fantasy baseball world. How many more 20-80 seasons with a .280+ average does this guy have to complete before he gets a little notoriety?
Or how about too much notoriety? Carlos Gonzalez hype is in full bloom which means it’s likely going to cost almost as much as it will take to land yourself Jason Heyward.
If you can use Vladimir Guerrero in thtfield still, then draft him. Now healthand in Texas, I’m expecting a big rebound year for him. He’ll never be the Vladdy of old, but a 25+HR season is all you’re really looking for from him anyway.
I’m seeing a lot of people pass on Alfonso Soriano in drafts due to his major dip in average, recent injury history, and loss of speed, so if he starts falling, I think he’s worth the risk. Have yourself a nice backup plan, but understand that you could still be looking at a 20-20 player here.
Raul Ibanez’ weak spring doesn’t scare me.
Nyjer Morgan’s injuries do.
We’re going to see ridiculous SB totals this year between Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, Julio Borbon and Rajai Davis. I’d try to lock one of them in. There are plenty of SBs to be had this year, but hving one of the burners gives you a clear cut advantage.
I’m loving Franklin Gutierrez this spring and this whole season. I’m putting his downside at 15-15, so imaine what he can do with a breakout season.
Nate McLouth’s spring is not an aberration, it’s an indication. He’s only good for half a season, so if the first half starts out like his spring is going, then you’ll want to steer clear from him. Buying low to start the second half may still be an option if he’s got a job.
If you think Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are going to be good this year, wait ’til Chris Heisey comes back from Triple-A to steal the left field job from the hodge podg the Reds are using right now.
Starting Pitchers
I believe in Clayton Kershaw for 2010.
I do not believe in Wandy Rodriguez.
I think James Shield’s mediocre 2009 numbers will keep his price down this year, so you should probably take advantage of that. You’re still looking at a innings eater who can give you 150-175 Ks and maintain a decent, not phenomenal, set of ratios.
Despite a less than spectacular spring, I’m still locking onto Justin Masterson. He’s a big groundball pitcher who racks up a ton of Ks and should perform very nicely in Cleveland’s starting rotation.
When Max Scherzer and Edwin Jackson switched teams, th mig as well have swapped stats too. I think Scherzer will have a solid year in Detroit a la Jackson 2009 while Jackson, himself, will struggle in Arizona.
Ryan Rowland-Smith’s poor spring is causing me a bit of concern. He’s a lefty, fly-ball pitcher in Seattle which is nice, but he seems to be struggling migtily with his command right now.
I’m regetting my FIP article nowadays as Ricky Nolasco has now jumped head first onto everybody’s fantasy radar.
I’m on board for the Tim Hudson rebound, but staying far away from Daisuke Matsuzaka’s bandwagon. I think Huddy can be counted on as a solid middle of the rotation guy while Dice-K will rip your WHIP-hole wide open.
I’d like Brian Matusz more if he didn’t have to face the AL East so much.
I like Kevin Slowey, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jonathan Sanchez.
I do not like Aaron Harang, J.A. Happ, or Joel Pineiro.
Francisco Liriano? I’m still on the fence, but if I can sneak him by somehow, then I’ll be happy. For whatever treason, I still think he’s worth the risk.
Closers
Matt Lindstrom should have the job over Brandon Lyon regardless of who wins this initial position battle.
The Twins bullpen problems will not be solved by the use of Jon Rauch. Someone wake me when Matt Guerrier or Pat Neshek gets handed the ball.
Despite possiby tarting the season without the job, I still tink it might be worthwhile to cheaply invest in Brad Lidge. People are so down on him that I can’t see it costinyou anything even remotely substantial.
In the Windy City, I think you’ll be surprised when it’s Carlos Marmol having issues and Bobby Jenks is the 9th inning staple.
I’m pegging Billy Wagner as my NL Comeback Player of the Year!
That about wraps it up for today here. I hope that this helps you make those last minute decisions properly. Remember, the draft is just the first battle in a very long baseball war. There’s always more opportunity ahead.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
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