Fantasy Baseball’s Second Half Heroes & Zeroes

Can the hottest bat in the AL keep it going in the 2nd half?

Out of all the emails I get this time of year, the most notable question is “who’s going to be the best second half performers?” Sometimes it’s easy to look at a player like Mark Teixeira, who got off to a slow start and has turned it on for June and July, and determine that the momentum he has will likely carry him through the end of the season. Sometimes, in Ryan Howard’s case, you just know that his second half numbers always outperform the first half because you’ve seen it every year since his call-up. But how about the rest of them? How about the guys with less of a high profile? What’s the best way to determine who I should target in the second half and who I might want to think about trading now while he still has value?

One of my favorite indicators is to look at slugging percentage. I’m sure sabermetric freaks will toss out a dozen different numbers and formulas for you to analyze, but for the layman, a player’s slugging percentage can be a very good indicator. For those that don;t know the exact calculation, it is simple — total bases per at bat. I like it because it leaves out walks which, in most fantasy circles, is not a points category. It is a strong indicator of offensive success and when compared to first half percentages, can shine a little light as to who is going to increase their production for you down the stretch. The lists below are my selections of who should have a solid second half. They’re not the biggest names out there (you’re gonna play your studs no matter what), but based on slugging percentages and some good ol’ baseball sense, here’s who I like down the stretch.

Top 10 AL Second Half Heroes

		3 YR Avg	3 YR Avg
		1st Half SLG	2nd Half SLG	Difference

OF	Juan Rivera	0.378	0.539	0.161
2B	Robinson Cano	0.399	0.550	0.151
OF	Adam Lind	0.366	0.479	0.113
DH	David Ortiz	0.540	0.652	0.112
OF	Nick Markakis	0.424	0.529	0.105
1B	Billy Butler	0.349	0.454	0.105
1B	Aubrey Huff	0.442	0.536	0.094
SS	Macier Izturis	0.335	0.427	0.092
OF	Franklin Gutierrez	0.354	0.444	0.090
2B	Adam Kennedy	0.318	0.405	0.087

I should note that in some of the cases like Adam Lind and Billy Butler, the 3 year averages can be difficult to use, especially when the player hasn’t even been in the majors for that long. But using minor league numbers and weighting major league totals heavier, still gives us a good indication of upcoming performance. Lind’s case might be a special one though, since his 1st half has been so impressive. It’s not that I think he’ll suddenly tank it in the second half, but more that I think he should probably stay about the same. The other guys, though, I expect more than solid production from here on in.

Top 10 NL Second Half Heroes

		3 YR Avg	3 YR Avg
		1st Half SLG	2nd Half SLG	Difference

1B	Adam LaRoche	0.418	0.597	0.179
1B	Carlos Delgado	0.454	0.562	0.108
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	0.376	0.477	0.101
OF	Garrett Anderson	0.394	0.490	0.096
2B	Kaz Matsui	0.362	0.450	0.088
OF	Andre Ethier	0.444	0.515	0.071
SS	Rafael Furcal	0.389	0.459	0.070
SS	Stephen Drew	0.409	0.478	0.068
3B	Chipper Jones	0.562	0.626	0.064
OF	Shane Victorino	0.398	0.461	0.063

Most of the guys in the NL have a solid track record where the numbers are a real good indiator. In the case of Troy Tulowitzki, the numbers were slightly skewed due to his injuries last year, but again, the overall, plus his minor league totals, indicate a strong second half to come.

And who looks like they might go in the tank for the second half? Well again, slugging percentage is a great indicator, especially when you have guys that are off to incredible starts. At the top of my list for a regression in the second half is Mariners first baseman, Russell Branyan. While he was a stud in the first half, those of us that have been playing the fantasy racket for some time know exactly who he is and that it is more than likely that his totals to date could be more of a statistical anomaly than anything else. Here are the lists for both the AL and NL. You might see a couple of sell high candidates here, so take notice.

Top 10 AL Second Half Busts

		3 YR Avg	3 YR Avg
		1st Half SLG	2nd Half SLG	Difference

1B	Russell Branyan	0.557	0.425	-0.132
DH	Ken Griffey, Jr.	0.552	0.442	-0.110
2B	Alexei Casilla	0.405	0.301	-0.104
1B	Jason Giambi	0.552	0.460	-0.092
3B	Brandon Inge	0.454	0.368	-0.086
SS	Orlando Cabrera	0.422	0.356	-0.066
3B	Mike Lowell	0.512	0.452	-0.060
2B	Jose Lopez	0.434	0.373	-0.061
OF	David DeJesus	0.445	0.396	-0.049
3B	Scott Rolen	0.475	0.435	-0.040

Top 10 NL Second Half Busts

		3 YR Avg	3 YR Avg
		1st Half SLG	2nd Half SLG	Difference

2B	Dan Uggla	0.553	0.428	-0.125
OF	Kosuke Fukudome	0.430	0.313	-0.117
C	Ryan Doumit	0.533	0.428	-0.105
3B	Mark Reynolds	0.511	0.442	-0.069
OF	Gary Sheffield	0.463	0.397	-0.066
C	Russell Martin	0.456	0.414	-0.042
3B	Pedro Feliz	0.435	0.397	-0.038
OF	Corey Hart	0.509	0.479	-0.030
SS	Miguel Tejada	0.466	0.439	-0.027
3B	Casey Blake	0.466	0.439	-0.027

Some interesting names on these last two lists, huh? Now obviously nothing is etched in stone, but it’s a pretty good indication that you could/should be selling high on a number of these players. Solid veterans like Miguel Tejada and Scott Rolen have done wonders for fantasy teams in the first half, and while it’s nice to think “resurgent career”, it’s better to be safe and sell for someone who looks liek a better bet in the second half.

Pitchers coming tomorrow!

Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!

Click here for the Pitchers section of Second Half Performers.

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

1 J July 14, 2009 at 10:52 pm: What about a player like Doumit. He played in around 12 games before he was injured the rest of the first half pretty much.

Will he a half first half of the season average numbers or second half. He’s arguably still playing the first half of his season.
2 howard July 15, 2009 at 10:16 am: I would definitely start Doumit, but be very wary of his injury risk. He’s been so in and out of the lineup over the years that if you’re going with him, make sure you have a viable backup.

The fractured wrist thing always concerns me, especially with a guy who hits for power — Ortiz and Hafner had huge issues coming back from it.

Use him so long as he produces, but just get ready to have a reserve backstop.
3 J July 16, 2009 at 9:15 am: Oh, I do. And his name is Pablo Sandoval. My round 22 pick
4 Howard July 16, 2009 at 11:36 am: Well, there’s no way I’d be starting Doumit over Sandoval, J. Great 22nd round choice. Kung Fu Panda has been a force this year. Maybe Doumit can slide into a utility spot or something, but I wouldn’t be taking out Sandoval.