Liriano's 1st half has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. Can he recover for the 2nd?
If you ask me, one of the best indicators of a pitcher’s success is his WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched). Now, again, I know the big math wizards and sabermetric gurus will talk to you about another dozen different numbers and ratios, but if you’re not into doing the advanced calculus thing, then WHIP and some good ol’ common sense should do you just right. Just like with the hitters and slugging percentage, I’ve done the same thing here with pitchers and WHIP. The Heroes are the guys who, traditionally see a decrease in WHIP in the second half and end up producing better overall numbers, while the Zeroes are…well, you know. Again, I’ve left out some of the bigger names because even if they see an increased WHIP, their numbers are still better than the average guy.
Top 10 AL Second Half Heroes
| 3 YR Avg | 3 YR Avg | ||
| 1st Half WHIP | 2nd Half WHIP | Difference | |
| Francisco Liriano | 1.860 | 1.070 | -0.790 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 1.270 | 0.990 | -0.280 |
| Kevin Millwood | 1.630 | 1.420 | -0.210 |
| Jeff Niemann | 1.710 | 1.500 | -0.210 |
| Luke Hochevar | 1.510 | 1.300 | -0.210 |
| Kevin Slowey | 1.300 | 1.140 | -0.160 |
| James Shields | 1.370 | 1.250 | -0.120 |
| Vicente Padilla | 1.520 | 1.410 | -0.110 |
| Scott Kazmir | 1.320 | 1.240 | -0.080 |
| Gavin Floyd | 1.510 | 1.430 | -0.080 |
A few things to take notice of as you’re looking at the above list: Rumors are swirling that Joba Chamberlain might be moved to the pen to take over 7th and 8th inning duties; I don’t like the sample size for Jeff Niemann or Luke Hochevar, but both could be major sleepers; I have a hard time trusting Texas pitchers still, so Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla still concern me a little. Everyone else I’m green lighting for a strong second half.
Top 10 NL Second Half Heroes
| 3 YR Avg | 3 YR Avg | ||
| 1st Half WHIP | 2nd Half WHIP | Difference | |
| Josh Johnson | 2.240 | 1.340 | -0.900 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 1.590 | 1.210 | -0.380 |
| Rickey Nolasco | 1.430 | 1.220 | -0.210 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 1.700 | 1.520 | -0.180 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 1.430 | 1.260 | -0.170 |
| Randy Johnson | 1.290 | 1.140 | -0.150 |
| Doug Davis | 1.620 | 1.470 | -0.150 |
| Todd Wellemeyer | 1.450 | 1.310 | -0.140 |
| Barry Zito | 1.510 | 1.400 | -0.110 |
| Paul Maholm | 1.480 | 1.400 | -0.080 |
Josh Johnson’s numbers are definitely skewed due to his Tommy John surgery, but I still like him a lot for the second half. Just watch out if the Marlins fall out of it that they don’t hold him back to save his arm for the future. Also, be wary of guys like Barry Zito and Doug Davis as, despite their WHIP reductions, they still have totals that coul ddo more harm than good.
As for the lists below, there are still some servicable guys out there, but I might be inclined to try and sell some of them high right now while they have value. Guys like Mark Buehrle, Nick Blackburn, Matt Garza and Jason Marquis highlight that list for me. The rest? Use at your own risk.
Top 10 AL Second Half Zeroes
| 3 YR Avg | 3 YR Avg | ||
| 1st Half WHIP | 2nd Half WHIP | Difference | |
| Jose Contreras | 1.550 | 2.000 | 0.450 |
| Brad Penny | 1.310 | 1.670 | 0.360 |
| Armando Galarraga | 1.150 | 1.480 | 0.330 |
| John Lackey | 1.070 | 1.370 | 0.300 |
| Mark Buehrle | 1.220 | 1.490 | 0.270 |
| Matt Garza | 1.210 | 1.460 | 0.250 |
| Nick Blackburn | 1.360 | 1.580 | 0.220 |
| Joe Saunders | 1.290 | 1.400 | 0.110 |
| Tim Wakefield | 1.290 | 1.390 | 0.100 |
| Gil Meche | 1.310 | 1.380 | 0.070 |
Top 10 NL Second Half Zeroes
| 3 YR Avg | 3 YR Avg | ||
| 1st Half WHIP | 2nd Half WHIP | Difference | |
| Jonathan Sanchez | 1.220 | 1.750 | 0.530 |
| Ryan Dempster | 1.180 | 1.540 | 0.360 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 1.320 | 1.530 | 0.210 |
| Scott Olsen | 1.360 | 1.560 | 0.200 |
| Jamie Moyer | 1.250 | 1.440 | 0.190 |
| Johnny Cueto | 1.360 | 1.490 | 0.130 |
| Jon Garland | 1.350 | 1.470 | 0.120 |
| Jason Marquis | 1.390 | 1.510 | 0.120 |
| Randy Wolf | 1.390 | 1.510 | 0.120 |
| Joe Blanton | 1.330 | 1.440 | 0.110 |
I hope this guideline helps you out as you mold and shape your team for a big second half run. Trade wisely and keep an eye out for some of the August and September call ups. You never know where you’re going to get your help.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
Click here for the Hitters section of Second Half Performers.
{ 2 trackbacks }
{ 0 comments… add one now }