Fantasy Baseball’s Second Half Heroes & Zeroes — Pitchers

by Howard on July 15, 2009

Lirianos 1st half has left a bad taste in everyones mouth.  Can he recover for the 2nd?

Liriano's 1st half has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. Can he recover for the 2nd?

     If you ask me, one of the best indicators of a pitcher’s success is his WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched).  Now, again, I know the big math wizards and sabermetric gurus will talk to you about another dozen different numbers and ratios, but if you’re not into doing the advanced calculus thing, then WHIP and some good ol’ common sense should do you just right.  Just like with the hitters and slugging percentage, I’ve done the same thing here with pitchers and WHIP.  The Heroes are the guys who, traditionally see a decrease in WHIP in the second half and end up producing better overall numbers, while the Zeroes are…well, you know.  Again, I’ve left out some of the bigger names because even if they see an increased WHIP, their numbers are still better than the average guy.

Top 10 AL Second Half Heroes

  3 YR Avg 3 YR Avg  
  1st Half WHIP 2nd Half WHIP Difference
       
Francisco Liriano 1.860 1.070 -0.790
Joba Chamberlain 1.270 0.990 -0.280
Kevin Millwood 1.630 1.420 -0.210
Jeff Niemann 1.710 1.500 -0.210
Luke Hochevar 1.510 1.300 -0.210
Kevin Slowey 1.300 1.140 -0.160
James Shields 1.370 1.250 -0.120
Vicente Padilla 1.520 1.410 -0.110
Scott Kazmir 1.320 1.240 -0.080
Gavin Floyd 1.510 1.430 -0.080

 

     A few things to take notice of as you’re looking at the above list:  Rumors are swirling that Joba Chamberlain might be moved to the pen to take over 7th and 8th inning duties;  I don’t like the sample size for Jeff Niemann or Luke Hochevar, but both could be major sleepers;  I have a hard time trusting Texas pitchers still, so Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla still concern me a little.  Everyone else I’m green lighting for a strong second half.

Top 10 NL Second Half Heroes

  3 YR Avg 3 YR Avg  
  1st Half WHIP 2nd Half WHIP Difference
       
Josh Johnson 2.240 1.340 -0.900
Ubaldo Jimenez 1.590 1.210 -0.380
Rickey Nolasco 1.430 1.220 -0.210
Mike Pelfrey 1.700 1.520 -0.180
Bronson Arroyo 1.430 1.260 -0.170
Randy Johnson 1.290 1.140 -0.150
Doug Davis 1.620 1.470 -0.150
Todd Wellemeyer 1.450 1.310 -0.140
Barry Zito 1.510 1.400 -0.110
Paul Maholm 1.480 1.400 -0.080

 

Josh Johnson’s numbers are definitely skewed due to his Tommy John surgery, but I still like him a lot for the second half.  Just watch out if the Marlins fall out of it that they don’t hold him back to save his arm for the  future.  Also, be wary of guys like Barry Zito and Doug Davis as, despite their WHIP reductions, they still have totals that coul ddo more harm than good.

     As for the lists below, there are still some servicable guys out there, but I might be inclined to try and sell some of them high right now while they have value.  Guys like Mark Buehrle, Nick Blackburn, Matt Garza and Jason Marquis highlight that list for me.  The rest?  Use at your own risk.

Top 10 AL Second Half Zeroes

  3 YR Avg 3 YR Avg  
  1st Half WHIP 2nd Half WHIP Difference
       
Jose Contreras 1.550 2.000 0.450
Brad Penny 1.310 1.670 0.360
Armando Galarraga 1.150 1.480 0.330
John Lackey 1.070 1.370 0.300
Mark Buehrle 1.220 1.490 0.270
Matt Garza 1.210 1.460 0.250
Nick Blackburn 1.360 1.580 0.220
Joe Saunders 1.290 1.400 0.110
Tim Wakefield 1.290 1.390 0.100
Gil Meche 1.310 1.380 0.070

 

Top 10 NL  Second Half Zeroes

  3 YR Avg 3 YR Avg  
  1st Half WHIP 2nd Half WHIP Difference
       
Jonathan Sanchez 1.220 1.750 0.530
Ryan Dempster 1.180 1.540 0.360
Wandy Rodriguez 1.320 1.530 0.210
Scott Olsen 1.360 1.560 0.200
Jamie Moyer 1.250 1.440 0.190
Johnny Cueto 1.360 1.490 0.130
Jon Garland 1.350 1.470 0.120
Jason Marquis 1.390 1.510 0.120
Randy Wolf 1.390 1.510 0.120
Joe Blanton 1.330 1.440 0.110

 

     I hope this guideline helps you out as you mold and shape your team for a big second half run.  Trade wisely and keep an eye out for some of the August and September call ups.  You never know where you’re going to get your help.

     Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!

     Click here for the Hitters section of Second Half Performers.

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Fantasy Baseball’s Second Half Heroes & Zeroes — Batters | Rotobuzz.com
July 15, 2009 at 11:23 am
Fantasy Baseball 2nd Half Begins | Rotobuzz.com
July 16, 2009 at 1:07 pm

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