Fun With Stats: AB/HR

According to the numbers...

     It is really easy for us to access stats online.  Pretty much every fantasy website has a laundry list of stats that you can look at.  Normally, these stats are the typical scoring stats for this game we love.  It is great to track HR, SB, RBI, etc.  However, there are other stats that you may not look at regularly which may help your fantasy team.  With a little bit of work, and a little knowledge of spreadsheets, you can find those as well.  Let’s take a look.

AB/HR

     This is a useful stat for a few different reasons.  The primary reason is that AB/HR is an indication of power weighted for the opportunity to play.  Clicking “HR” on your website spreadsheet won’t readily show you players with good power that haven’t had enough playing time to rank among the leaders.  This leads into the second reason it is a useful statistic.  This ratio (used in conjunction with other stats and team situations) can prove to be a leading indicator of players who could win more playing time.  Finally, this stat can show you players that, while they don’t play every day, can still help your fantasy team.  Perhaps there is a player that has great power, but his batting average keeps him from being an stater.  That player can still be useful to your team since with fewer at-bats that batting average will not affect your team as much as a player who starts every day. 

     For our purposes, I have listed the top 40 in AB/HR and I have limited these stats to players who have had at least 20 ABs so far this season.  I have also removed several of the stud players who’s numbers are right on track near the top of this list.  Some stud are still there to put the numbers in perspective.  It is also important to keep in mind the sample size of ABs.  Obviously, the fewer at-bats a player has, the less the indicator should be relied upon.  Highlighted in red are some names to which you should pay attention.

Joe Mauer- We have waited years to see if Mauer’s power will ever catch up to his batting average.  This could be the season he takes a step forward.

Chris Ianetta-  He showed us that he had power last season belting 18 HRs in 333 ABs.  He is still hitting for good power this season.  News flash: last year was not a fluke.

Jay Bruce – He is still only hitting .161 against lefties this season, but his power sure is for real.  Is he a complete ballplayer at this point in his career?  No.  He sure can hit for power though.

Brandon Inge- This guy is going to play all season, and is showing good power.  This is an excellent example of why you cannot base your decisions soley on this stat, however.  Inge’s career track record suggests that this is an aberration.

Josh Willingham -  The Hammer has come on recently, and could win more playing time.  His batting average is still terrible due to a very slow start, but if he heats up he could steal time away both in the outfield and at first base.

Russell Branyan -  We have always know that this guy could hit tape-measure home runs.  The real question has been whether he can do anything up that and strike out.  He has emerged as the centerpiece of the Mariner’s lineup this season, and while the batting average may come down, the power will stay.

Jorge Cantu-  I was among the disbelievers in Cantu’s resurgance last season.  He is slowly winning me over with the consistancy of his play.  I still won’t pay full price for him in a trade, but if you have him he is a solid option.

Ben Zobrist-  Zobrist seems to be a favorite of Joe Maddon.  He can play in the infield or outfield, and is showing nice power this season.  Last year he hit 12 home runs in 198 ABs which is a AB/HR ratio of 16.5.  That is not too far from his ratio this season.  Expect him to continue playing, but it is still doubtful he will reach 500 ABs without an injury to another Rays player.

Justin Upton -  Can both of the Upton brothers have a good season at the same time?  While B.J. is struggling, Upton is finally starting to hit.  He showed good power early last season too, so beware.

Travis Hafner-  Of course health is the primary issue here.  However, late blooming power hitters tend to decline as quickly as they emerge.  Hafner seems to be playing closer to his old self than in quite a while.  He could be worth a roster spot if you have one to spare.

Adam Jones -  This guy was supposed to be a stud, and he seems to be morphing into one right before our eyes.  His power was not expected to be so good so soon, but we could be witnessing the breakout of one of the next generation’s five-tool stars.

written by Keith J. Giordano