Fun with Stats: AB/K

Zero usefulness

     Strikeouts by our batters are killers.  Completely unproductive, they cost us points in batting average.  At least with a fielder’s choice or an error, it is still possible for a stolen base or a run.  But no, with the strikeout you grab pine.  I see a lot of fantasy articles that talk about the K/BB ratio and how useful it is.  I agree, it is very useful especially if you are trying to gauge the likelihood that a younger player will win a job.  Baseball managers love that stat right up there with OBP.  Some kid fighting for a job may not be finding the holes in the infield, but if he is walking a lot more that striking out, he can hang on to playing time long enough for them to start dropping.  The problem with this stat is that it has so many exceptions.  Those with among the worst K/BB ratios are: Bengie Molina, Mike Lowell, and Adrian Beltre.  Clearly, those three players are not going to lose their jobs due to strikeouts.  There are plenty of batters out there that may strike out more than they walk, but they still manage to maintain a good batting average.  So instead I prefer to look at strikeouts in relation to total ABs, or AB/K.

     This stat lets you take a closer look at how many of the batter’s outs are of the completely freakin’ useless variety.  Even a groundout can drive in a run sometimes.  A sac fly?  Great by comparison.  A strikeout sucks, and players that strikeout too much do not hang around in the bigs for too long. 

     Red indicates players that have already lost their job (at least in part because they strike out so much).  Blue indicates players who’s numbers can be expected to decline, or who’s jobs could be in danger.

     Chris Davis  (3B, TEX) - We have to start here at the top of the list.  Davis is by far and away the biggest strikeout machine in the bigs so far this season.  Striking out almost every other at bat, Davis should be in line for a drop in playing time.  Sure, he has the power.  However, he Rangers cannot be expected to continue playing him, especially when they have plenty of other options they can use at first base.  Even Andruw Jones got a look there recently.  If Josh Hamilton had not gotten hurt, this process would most likely be taking place immediately.  The injury should by Davis a second chance.  He had better get well quickly.

     B.J. Upton  (OF, TB)-  What to do with Upton?  He seems to be coming around a little bit, but these strikeouts are worrisome.  It would be one thing if his production had been consistent for the last two seasons, but it wasn’t.  A crazy drop in power and a simultaneous drop in batting average in 2008 could be warning signs.  His strikeout rate is right there with Jim Thome and Ryan Howard.  If you are going to strike out as much as those names, you had better be driving in runs at near the same rate.  Currently, Upton is not.  The talent is still there, so this could be an opportunity to try and buy low.  With all of the SBs Upton continues to put up, the discount may not be large yet.

     Delmon Young  (OF, MIN)-  GM’s that were hoping that Delmon would be able to crack the starting lineup regularly should give up that hope.  Delmon has the double red flag waving with both a low number of AB/K and a high number of K/BB.  He will not depended on while these strikeouts are such a big part of his game.

     Miguel Olivo  (C, KC) -  Talk about a high strikeout rate with both ratios!  Olivo has the worst K/BB rate of any player (that gets regular playing time).  Not only does he only have 2 walks for the season compared to 39 Ks, but he strikes out once for every three ABs.  His playing time should remain steady, but those counting on him to step up should look elsewhere.

     Lance Nix  (OF,CIN) -  This guy has steadily won more playing time as the year has gone on, and as the Reds have lost more confidence in Chris Dickerson.  He has shown decent power and his batting average has been good.  However, these numbers indicate that a statistical correction is about to happen.  This is a case where the K/BB ratio may provide a bit more insight to whether or not he will play, but the AB/K ratio is sending the same message.  If you can sell him, do it before that average drops.

     Russell Branyan  (1B, SEA) -  His production should have you thinking one thing if you own him.  That is:  “I have to trade this guy right now.”  His strikeout rate (3.32) is right with last season’s.  Now, this is an improvement over his career rate of 2.5, but not so much of an improvement that I am willing to buy into this .319 batting average.  I cannot encourage you strongly enough to trade him if you can get a boost in his value from his early production.

     Fred Lewis  (OF, SF)-  I rode this guy’s numbers last season, but was priced out for this year.  Turns out that was a good thing.  Lewis is one of the bigger disappointments for the Giants this season.  With only 3 home runs, 4 SBs, and eight (count ‘em, eight) RBIs, his production has slipped greatly.  He has already been moved down in the order, and is a candidate to either be traded or be replaced by a player the Giants trade for this season.  He does know how to take a walk, as evidenced by his .373 OBP.  This may not be enough to save his job though.

written by Keith J. Giordano