Where will the big guy end up?
Fantasy baseball owners all over are glued to their computer screens, laptops, and crackberries these days. With the world of technology at our fingertips, ESPN alerts, Twitter and Facebook posts are raging as more MLB trades go down and the MLB rumors continue to heat up. AL and NL only leaguers are cringing at the thoughts of their top performers switching leagues while mixed leaguers are just hoping that their guys merely don’t lose any fantasy value with a move to another team. So with the MLB trade deadline set for tomorrow, I will continue to update you on all trades that go down, any potential deals that are still in the rumor process, and the fantasy impact from each one. With every guy that gets moved, there’s newfound fantasy value to be had, so you’re going to want to stay on top of things. Nothing better than grabbing a guy off the fantasy baseball free agent waiver wire that no one has heard of, because you did your homework and realized that a new job was opening up for him. Here’s the latest…
MLB Trades
The Houston Astros trade RHP Roy Oswalt and cash considerations to the Philadelphia Phillies for LHP J.A. Happ, OF Anthony Gose, and SS Jonathan Villar
The only thing that I like about this trade is that I can finally stop hearing about where Oswalt was going to end up. Yeesh! It was like asking if Brett Favre was going to retire or play just one more season. But for the baseball fantasy community, let’s just get to the fantasy baseball analysis. On the Oswalt front, I’m bumping up his value just a tiny bit. While he is definitely moving to a more competitive team, the Phils haven’t been without their own struggles and, at times, don’t show up offensively. Maybe the addition of Oswalt will jump start the team as a whole, so perhaps his wins total will take a nice little increase. As for his ratios, well, Citizen’s Bank Park plays about the same as Minute Maid — both little bandboxes so I don’t anticipate too much of a change. I do, however, think it’s worth noting that, if you look at Oswalt’s splits over the last 3 seasons, there’s not a whole lot of success against NL East teams, including a 5.25 ERA in two starts in Philly. Food for thought there.
On the Astros side, they will immediately put Happ into their rotation, and his fantasy value takes a slight hit for basically the same reason Oswalt’s gets a bump. It’s a much less competitive team, poor run support, etc. The wins won’t come as easily, but that’s not to say that he won’t have his merits going forward. St. Louis is the only real competitive team in the central, so Happ will certainly be facing weaker lineups with the unbalanced schedule. He’ll be a great guy to play the matchups with as he tangles with the likes of the Pirates, the Brewers and the Cubs. The minor leaguers that came back aren’t the best from the Philly system, but they’re not terrible either. Villar doesn’t have much in the way of competition at short in the Astros system, so he should advance fairly quickly if he can hit, and Gose, a major speed demon, he’ll…..have a different kind of value for Houston. See below.
The Houston Astros trade OF Anthony Gose to the Toronto Blue Jays for 1B/3B Brett Wallace
As quickly as the Astros picked up Gose, that’s how fast he was shipped out the door. Gose was sent packing to Toronto in exchange for Wallace which could be the preliminary work for another trade (see Lance Berkman in the Rumors section). He [Gose] doesn’t have much in the way of fantasy value for this season, but if he progresses nicely through the Jays’ system, he could be primed to be a top leadoff guy and base stealer.
With Wallace, I’m starting to get a little concerned about why teams are so quick to get rid of him. The Cardinals pitched him off to the A’s in the Matt Holliday trade and then the A’s immediately flipped him to Toronto in exchange for Michael Taylor, another outfield prospect. Now, the Astros have him and it’s yet to be determined as to what’s in store for the youngster. He does have some decent power potential, but that needs time to develop. Still, he could be playing in the bigs before we know it, if the Astros continue to stay active on the trade front. FANTASY UPDATE: With the trade of Lance Berkman, Wallace is officially the Astros starting first baseman.
The Washington Nationals trade RHP Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for C Wilson Ramos and LHP Joe Testa
Capps owners in NL only leagues are dying and everyone that owns Jon Rauch has been screwed. When this deal was announced, it also came with the understanding that Capps would continue to close for the Twins this season, while Rauch has been bumped to set-up duty, thus killing off a major chunk of his fantasy value. There’s really no other analysis here on the Twins side. Out with the old closer and in with the new….unless, of course, the new closer falters and the manager realizes he needs to switch back to his old guy. Thi scould be a tough one to watch as we head down the stretch.
As for the Nationals, they get back a pair of prospects who likely won’t have much in value in the immediate future. Ramos could develop nicely, but it’s still a ways off. The big change for them now though is the pen. Jim Riggleman said that he will move to a closer by committee with Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett and Joel Peralta, so no one can really be trusted right now. Still, all signs point to Storen taking over eventually, so if you have him in a keeper league, you’ve got to be happy that the team is clearing the path.
The Florida Marlins trade 1B/3B Jorge Cantu to the Texas Rangers for RHP Evan Reed and RHP Omar Poveda
The Rangers certainly didn’t have to give up much to land themselves one of the more highly sought after corner guys on the market. Cantu will immediately slot in as the Rangers first baseman, as the team already demoted Chris Davis to make room. Cantu’s fantasy value gets an immediate bump as he not only moves to a much friendlier hitter’s park, but he joins a ridiculous prolific offense. As he makes the necessary adjustments back to AL pitching, his power production should definitely increase. If you’re in an AL only league and are in need of corner help, then you shoul dbe rushing out to make a waiver claim.
As for the Marlins, again, the prospects are nothing spectacular and no one you need to worry about for fantasy purposes this year. What you do need to keep tabs on is Chris Coghlan’s progress from his knee issues. Word is that Coghlan will shift over to play third when he returns, so that could, if he’s healthy, be a nice bonus for his fantasy owners who get the added position flexibility. For now though, it’s the trio of Wes Helms, Donnie Murphy and Hector Luna taking over the Marlins’ hot corner.
The Baltimore Orioles trade 3B Miguel Tejada and cash considerations to the San Diego Padres for RHP Wynn Pelzer
Time for Miggy to head back to the NL after a brief stop in Baltimore. The Padres get some nice infield flexibility as they can either play Tejada at third and move Chase Headley back to the outfield while Chris Denorfia hits the pine or they can play him at short and use Everth Cabrera off the bench as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. Tejada’s power certainly won’t increase with a move from Camden Yards to Petco Park, but he could turn up that BA a little and start slapping the ball around the spacious outfield.
On the Orioles side, you can forget about Pelzer. This was strictly a salry dump and Pelzer ‘s upside isn’t really considered upside. What you do need to keep an eye on is newly called up third baseman Josh Bell who will be taking over the now vacant hot corner. Bell was hitting .278 with 13 HR in Triple-A and is considered a rock solid glove man. The Orioles were more than happy to make room for him, so you have to think he’ll play regularly. You might see a little bit of struggling at first, but hopefully Bell turns into a decent corner option for the next 2 months.
The Chicago White Sox trade RHP Daniel Hudson and RHP David Holmberg to the Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Edwin Jackson
This has been a highly talked about possibility for a little while now and I don’t think it ends here. The rumors have been swirling around that this was going to be a three team deal with the Nationals so that Adam Dunn can be sent to the South Side of Chicago. For now though, let’s just check in on the fantasy value for the pitchers involved here. First and foremost, if Jackson stays in Chicago, I’m going to hav eto downgrade his value. I know that he had a great year pitching in Detroit last year, but that’s Commerica Park, not U.S. Cellular Field. Jackson has been one of those guys who struggles in hitter friendly parks because he doesn’t trust his stuff enough to just pound the strike zone. He did that in Detroit and found success, but immediately reverted and regressed once he landed in Arizona. If he stays, then be careful using him. In the meantime, Lucas Harrell was called up to take Hudson’s next scheduled start. I’m not a huge fan, but he might be someone to watch, especially if Jackson is still on the move.
The Diamondbacks actually, in my opinion, get themselves a great starting pitching prospect in Hudson and a decent potential middle reliever in Holmberg. I’m not sure if Arizona will keep Holmberg up right now, but Hudson should probably join the rotation and take Jackson’s spot. The move to the NL should give Hudson a boost in value and there’s not much concern about the ballparks since both are hitter friendly. I’d watch Hudson closely as I think, with his strikeout potential, that he could do good things down the stretch.
For more on this deal, check out the latest on my other site: SouthSideSwingers.com
MLB Rumors
Where will Adam Dunn End Up?
With the Hudson/Jackson trade finished between the White Sox and the Diamondbacks, it looks like the next step is a deal that sends Jackson to the Nats for the big slugging first baseman. The Nationals were originally looking at Gordon Beckham, but the Sox aren’t dealing their prized infielder and it looked like the deal was going to be Hudson and Dayan Viciedo for Dunn. I’m sure the Nats see Jackson as an upgrade to Hudson, so you coul dseee this getting done sooner rather than later.
Is Lance Berkman the Next to Leave Houston?
As the Houston fire sale continues, there’s a lot of speculation that Bekman is the next to go. With the recent acquisition of Brett Wallace, rumors are being fueled and teams are giving more thought to bringing in the veteran slugger. The most likely destination, for me, is the Angels who were snubbed by Derrek Lee earlier in the week. If the Halos decide to continue trying to build their team, then Berkman would be a solid replacement at first base. There’s also the possibility that the White Sox use him as a back up plan if they can’t swing a deal for Dunn.
Cardinals Shifting to Plan B
With Oswalt out fo the trade mix, the Cards are now looking at Rockies starter Aaron Cook and Indians pitcher Jake Westbrook. Neither is an amazing option, but for fantasy purposes, you’d have to think that both would get a bump in fantasy value moving to St. Louis.
Dodgers Eyeing Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot
There’s nothing more specific out there, but it looks like the Dodgers are set to increase the talent of their rotation and upgrade at second base. Fantasy wise, both would get an increase, in my opinion. Lilly in a pitchers park in the NL West woul dbe fantastic for his numbers, and Theriot could go back to playing every day which would move Blake DeWitt back to the bench.
So that’s where we’re at today, I suppose. I’m sure there’s plenty more action coming, but for now, it’s all speculation at best. You’ve got the rumors and you know the deals, so as a fantasy leaguer, you need to continue to keep your ear to the ground and get ready to make some adjustments as the deals come through.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
Loading ...