Edwin Jackson was a definite 1st half stud, but what about the second half?
A pretty short week this week, what with the All Star Break. While some fantasy baseball fanatics are floundering in a sea of despair, what with no games on and no live scoring to check out, I look at this time as a golden opportunity to catch up with the latest info. Since we already know that there are no two start pitchers this week, you can use this time to check on how teams are altering their rotations, who they’re calling up, and who’s going to be a second half hurler you’re going to want to try and pick up. I’ll be doing a full article on Second Half Performers over the next day or so, but for some of the pitchers, here’s a few notes to keep in mind.
Clay Buchholz, SP BOS — Probably one of the hottest waiver pickups during this lull in the season. He’s been dominating Triple-A with a 7-2 record and a 2.36 ERA, but more importantly, opposing hitters are only batting .188 against him and he’s got 89 K’s in just under 100 innings. Just be careful with him. He was spectacular during his 2007 call up but struggled mightily when in the bigs last year. People are going to talk only about his no-hitter, but remember, Jonathan Sanchez threw one last Friday and I don’t see anyone running to grab him. Sun shining on a dog’s ass, anyone? Buchholz has potential so he can’t be ignored, but don’t just go with him based on Triple-A stats and a start against a struggling Toronto team. Let him get his feet wet before annointing him the best pick-up of 2009.
Adam Wainwright, SP STL — It’s hard to think of anyone hotter going into the All Star Break right now. In his last 3 starts, he’s given up only 3 earned runs in 25.1 innings (1.07 ERA) with a 1.11 WHIP and 26 Ks. He went 2-0 in those starts and should have been 3-0 if not for the lack of run support in his 9 inning effort against San Francisco. Now sabermetric junkies and number crunchers will start to warn you off of him due to his WHIP increases in the second half over the last 3 years, but remember, it’s not always about the numbers…especially when they can be misleading. In 2006, Wainwright was a reliever who in ’07 was converted to a starter and threw over 200 innings for the first time. Last year he got hurt due to the workload and only threw 132 innings in total. Now that his transition period is over and he’s used to the workload of a full time starter (training included), Wainwright should be a valuable asset in the second half. I like him a lot going forward despite what the mathematicians say.
Josh Johnson, SP FLA — After last year’s second half and this year’s first half, Johnson has all the makings of a stud pitcher. But err on the side of caution. The Marlins are fighting for a playoff spot and aren’t too far behind the Phillies in the division. But if that playoff dream starts to dissipate, so may Johnson’s opportunities. Remember, he’s still only a year removed from Tommy John rehab and if the Marlins start to fall out of it, Johnson could have his workload reduced with the hopes of saving his arm for the future. In the age of pitch counts and inning limits, Johnson could end up being one of those guys you may not be able to depend on come late August/Septemeber.
Joba Chamberlain, SP NYY — Just like Johnson, Joba could be another guy who’s team starts to limit his innings towards the end of the season. With reliable starters like A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, and Andy Pettitte, the Yankees may lighten the Nebraskan’s workload. There’s also the distinct possibility that they work him more as a reliever in Spetember to use him out of the bullpen come playoff time. He’s been pretty erratic this first half, so be wary of a move. Some of the higher ups in the organization have been screaming for him to stay in the pen, and the end of this season may be when they get their way.
Edwin Jackson, SP DET — Another guy who makes me want to throw the sabermetric book away. People will be quoting his second half numbers, and if they do, then definitely buy low on him. The biggest knock that has come on Jackson is how he finishes up a half a season. While struggling through injuries in the Dodgers minor league system and then finding his way through the bigs as a 5th starter in Tampa, Jackson broke down a little in months like June, July and September. But like I’ve said before, he’s definitely got it together this year and has broken out big time! His June ERA was a high for him this year at 2.91 and his July ERA is at 2.70 right now. Sure those are higher than April and May, but come on…seriously? If my guy is getting tired and still throwing with a sub 3.00 ERA, I’m still sticking with him.
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