2010 Fantasy Baseball Position Tiers are here!

Catchers

1st Tier:  Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Victor Martinez

     With Joe Mauer finally delivering on the power potential, Victor Martinez healthy and plugging away at first base in Boston, and Brian McCann maintaining that consistency we’ve grown to rely on, the top tier was pretty easy to set.  While each guy is likely to cost you a relatively high draft choice (2nd and 3rd rounders in some leagues), you’re going to get rock solid production from each one of them.  All three should hit 20+ HR with a minimum of 90 RBI, while providing rock solid batting averages.  Speed is not something you should be hoping for, but with power numbers like these from your backstop, you can bulk up on steals somehwere else.

2nd Tier:   Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto, Jorge Posada, Mike Napoli, Bengie Molina

     The second tier of catchers is a nice mix of hot, young up and comers, potential comebacks and wily veterans that still have great pop in their bats.  The hype on Matt Wieters has been consistent and his eventual breakout in September of last season was a great sign of things to come.  He’ll likely cost a hefty price come draft day, but the full season of power stats should prove his worth.  Miguel Montero is another youngster that broke out last year and eventually stole the job in Arizona from Chris Snyder.  His 16 HR in 425 AB were a good indicator of his power potential and his .294 average showed that he’s finally major league ready.

     Despite subpar seasons in 2009, Russell Martin and Geovany Soto stay in the second tier for me this year, as I suspect big rebounds from each.  Martin still remains a nice power/speed option behind the dish and if he can avoid the horiffic slow start he’s endure the last 2 years.  His stumbles in the early goings have been a tough hurdle for him to overcome, but he still has the potential for double digit totals in both HR and steals this year.  Soto, on the other hand, was victimized last by the tag team of “Sophomore Slump” and “The Injury Bug”, but should see a nice rebound this year.  With the hype and pressure of winning the NL Rookie of the Year award now a thing of the past, I see Soto taking a similar approach to 2010 that he took into 2008.  He may not plug 20+ dingers again, but a number in the high teens with a .280+ average is not out of his realm.

     Helping fill the second tier are staple veteran catchers in Jorge Posada and Bengie Molina.  Posada gets the nod here with a strong rebound in 2009 and the fact that he’ll continue to play as the number one catcher in a ridiculously strong Yankees lineup.  He continues to have 20+ HR potential and should provide atleast one more solid year for his fantasy owners.  His age and prior shoulder issues could keep his price down, so don’t jump too fast.  Molina should also provide decent pop, no matter where he signs.  The Mets continue to be the front-runners in negotiations, and while Citi Field plays to the pitchers, so did AT&T in San Francisco.  He probably won’t see the same RBI totals as he’ll likely hit lower in the order on any team he goes to, but he should still provide similar HR totals. 

     And finally, there’s Mike Napoli.  I don’t know what more this guy can do for manager Mike Scioscia to give him the full time gig, but anything more and he’d be in the top tier.  Napoli has back to back 20 HR seasons and even better is that he’s done it in less than 400 AB each year.  As a matter of fact, he’s got 40 HR over his last 609 at bats.  Can you imagine what he could do with some more consistent playing time during the season?  Still, he gets bumped down with Jeff Mathis stealing almost half his plate appearances.

3rd Tier:  Kurt Suzuki, A.J. Pierzynski, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey

     The overall drop from the second tier to the third isn’t really that significant.  The power should be less, but Ryan Doumit and Chris Iannetta both have the potential to reach the 20 HR plateau.  Doumit really just needs to stay healthy, a problem that has plagued him his entire career, and Iannetta needs to just get his head back into the game.  After a fantastic breakout in ‘08, Iannetta took a major step back last year.  His 16 HRs were fine, but that abyssmal .228 average needs work.  If his head is on right during th espring, then he should be fine, but with Miguel Olivo now in town, the pressure is on.

     The breakout of Kurt Suzuki was a great surprise for his owners last year, but I’m not completely sold for this year.  His 15 HRs were a big surprise, and at the age of 26, I feel like he’s one of those players that gives credence to my theory that 26 is the new 27.  So just be careful.  I don’t see any reason to reach for him.  A.J. Pierzynski and Yadier Molina have become two of the more consistent backstops in fantasy with A.J. providing HR totals in the mid-teens with a relatively decent average and Molina hitting for a high average but with limited pop.  Both have their moments throughout a season, and if you want to go cheap on catchers, then these guys are almost ideal.

     Finishing off the third tier is Giants prospect, Buster Posey.  Personally, I happen to love the way this kid plays and he reminds me of a young Craig Biggio.  The Giants were supposed to go with Posey in 2010 with the departure of Bengie Molina, but the latest rumors have the team still in the market for a veteran backstop.  If they do, then Posey, while still a fantastic long term keeper option, drops in the 2010 rankings and tiers.  If they don’t, and he gets the starting job, then he’s going to be one of the bigger fantasy baseball sleepers of the season.

4th Tier:  Rod Barajas, Ivan Rodriguez, Carlos Ruiz, John Buck, John Baker, Ramon Hernandez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Miguel Olivo

     It’s nice when you can wait on a position and still find decent quality.  Rod Barajas, while still unsigned, has been linked to a few teams, most notably the Rangers and the Giants.  If he goes to the Rangers, where he enjoyed the most productive season of his career, then I see him more in the top end of the 3rd tier, while simultaneously knocking Jarrod Saltalamacchia down the list.  If it’s the Giants, then he still gets a little bump, though not as big (not to mention the bump down for Posey).  He’s got 15 - 20 HR potential, but the average could use some work.  If Barajas doesn’t go to Texas, then Salty should do ok.  He’s still young and developing, but should provide some adequate totals (10 HR, 40 RBI, .250 AVG?) if he gets the starting nod.

     For me, both Carlos Ruiz and John Buck could be interesting sleepers at their position.  If Ruiz can build on that incredible playoff run, then I don’t see why, in that ballpark, he can’t hit you 12 to 15 HR with a .265 average.  Buck finally breaks away from Kansas City and the perpetual platoon to get the starting job in Toronto this year.  He won’t hit for the greatest average, but he still has good power potential.  With a full season as the number one guy, he could be in line for a solid breakout season, even at the age of 29.

  As for the rest, Ivan Rodriguez, Ramon Hernandez and John Baker should provide similar numbers that they did in 2009.  Pudge and Hernandez are on the downside of their careers, but still get decent playing time, and while Baker should hit for a decent average, his power is limited.  He’s also got Ronny Paulino in town which could turn into more of a platoon situation, so be careful.  And finally, I put Miguel Olivo over here due to his fantastic power season last year.  He hit 23 HR for lowly Kansas City and now ends up in Colorado backing up Iannetta.  I like him here though because the moment Iannetta hits a cold streak, Olivo will get more playing time and could possibly even take the job away.

5th Tier and beyond:  Gerald Laird, Dioner Navarro, Kelly Shoppach, Jason Varitek, J.R. Towels, Gregg Zaun, Jason Kendall, Nick Hundley

     Listed above are the guys who have the starting jobs, although Navarro and Shoppach are a likely platoon fo rthe rays, and should be super cheap, yet somewhat viable options.  Nothing to write home about, but better than a hol ein your lineup.  These are your last ditch efforts.  If all else fails and you want some sort of production, these are your choices.

     On the other hand, there’s still a few names out there that may end up providing some help.  Taylor Teagarden has potential if Texas skips Barajas and Salty stays hurt, Carlos Santana is a highly touted, just not major league ready yet, catcher for the Tribe,  Jason Jaramillo sits behind the oft-injured Doumit, George Kottaras could be a sleeper in Milwaukee, and  Landon Powell could see some DH time as well in Oakland.  None will give you too much up front, but could end up better long term options than some of the other guys in Tier 5.

First Basemen

1st Tier:  Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera

     I mean, really.  What more can I say about this group?  Hands down, some of the best fantasy baseball stats you’ll see in a season and well worth each and every penny, every first round draft choice, you spend to pick one of them up in your draft.  The first 4 are a lock for 35+ HR and 120+ RBI and each hits for a nice high average.  Miguel Cabrera sits on the bubble here for me, but gets the nod with the career .311 average and the hopes that he may have learned a little maturity after his late season binging habits cost the Tigers a spot in the playoffs. 

2nd Tier:  Adrian Gonzalez, Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Justin Morneau

     The guys that sit in this tier aren’t so far off from the ones above, especially considering all of them, save for Morneau and his cranky back, had equal or more HR than Cabrera, and both Adam Dunn and Kendry Morales had more RBI.  So what bumps them down a little?  Well, for starters, Adrian Gonzalez has no one hitting in front of him, so while the 40 HR are great, the sub-100 RBI totals are not.

     I’m actually a big fan of both Dunn and Morales, but good ol’ “country strong” Dunn has a career high of .267 in the batting average department, and Morales has had only one year of big time mashing.  But while Dunn should continue to produce at hs usual levels, I see Morales taking more steps to improve on his totals.  His debut season was an amazing success, he’s floating in that 26 to 27 year old range this year, he’s got a great power stroke and a lot of poise for a guy who was put in the awful position of trying to replace Mark Teixeira in Los Angles  I think this is a great example of the maturity that can help a late bloomer find success.

     Justin Morneau rounds out the rest of the group, and similarly to Cabrera, could very well have led off Tier 3 instead.  However, with 100+ RBI for 4 straight seasons, despite being shut down at the end of last year, he gets to stay in the upper class.  But Morneau is the cutoff point for me for big spending on a first baseman.  I think anyone in these top 2 tiers is worth the money and I believe you’ll find it much easier to build the rest of your team knowing that you’ve got immense power from this slot.        

3rd Tier:  Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee, Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, Pablo Sandoval, Paul Konerko, Kevin Youkilis, Lance Berkman, Victor Martinez

     So, the third tier has an interesting mix of players.  You’ve got some aging vets that still seem to have something left in the tank, some young up and comers, and then a mixture of guys you’d probably rather have elsewhere, sitting  in the middle.

     First off, let’s talk about what is probably the most noticable player in the tier and give you my thoughts.  I can just hear it now, “Mark Reynolds popped 44 HR last year, how can you drop him so low?“  Well, my answer is, “Easy.”  While Reynolds was a tremendous source of power in 2009, let’s talk about what’s holding him back.  First of all, the HR totals came from out of nowhere, so the guarantee of a repeat performance, based on his previous totals and minor league stats, is pretty low.  Next, there’s the strikeouts.  If you’re in a league, be it a rotisserie league or head to head league, and you’re penalized for striking out, then Reynolds HR totals are pretty much negated by his whiffs and low batting average.  And finally, if push comes to shove and I’m drafting Reynolds, I’m using him over at third where I feel he has more value.

     Similarly to Reynolds, Victor Martinez, Pablo Sandoval and Kevin Youkilis would suit you better at other positions.  You’re going to get decent totals out of all of them, but Youk and Sandoval (a.k.a Kung Fu Panda) are better options at the hot corner while Martinez is obviously a much better choice behind the dish.

     So that brings us to the aging veterans.  Derrek Lee stays up in the third tier with his 35 HR return to stardom last year.  I don’t necessarily know if he’ll produce at those levels again, but he’s certainly shown that the wrist issues are a thing of the past.  He may not equal 2009’s totals, but even a little less is still better than average for this group.  Carlos Pena doesn’t crack the 2nd tier due to his chronic injuries, and Paul Konerko and Lance Berkman, while still able to plug you 25+ HR, are on the downside of their careers.

     And rounding out the third tier is Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who I tink takes his game to the next level in 2010.  He’s put up nearly identical power numbers up in his first two full seasons but has improved in both batting average and OBP each year.  In fact, his .981 OPS last year was 4th best in the league just behind names like Pujols, Fielder and Mauer.  While  I don’t see him cracking the 40 HR barrier, totals in the low to mid 30’s are not out of his range.  If he can put it all together in his 3rd full season, he’ll find hi sway into the second tier in 2011.  Oh yeah, did I forget to tell you that he’s only 26?  Turns 27 in September.     

4th Tier:  Adam LaRoche, Russell Branyan, Nick Swisher, Billy Butler, Jorge Cantu, James Loney, Nick Johnson, Todd Helton, Chris Davis, Garrett Jones, Michael Cuddyer, Troy Glaus

     Now this is an interesting group stacked with mediocre vets and potential fantasy baseball sleepers.  Guys like Adam LaRoche, Nick Swisher, Todd Helton and Jorge Cantu are going to give you roughly the same totals they’ve been giving you over the last few years.  Solid, but not phenomenal for a first baseman.  None of them should cost you too much and you should get around 20 HR from each of them.  Michael Cuddyer is an ok possibility here, especially if you don’t need a lot of outfielders on your roster, and James Loney, who doesn’t have too much pop in his bat, still has a great average and gets solid RBI opportunities.

     Russell Branyan is down here because I just don’t believe in him.  And neither did the Mariners apparently, as they have opted to let him walk this year rather than get burned on hoping he’ll repeat his 31 HR performance in 2009.  In fact, no one really seems to believe him as he remains unsigned, so that should speak volumes to you.

     And then there’s the sleepers.  In my primary league, we start two guys at each position with 6 OF and 9 pitchers.  I’m pushing for Tier 1 and 2 guys for my main starter, but I’ll definitely be checking out bargains like Nick Johnson, Billy Butler, Chris Davis, Garrett Jones, and even Troy Glaus for my second guy.  Jones and Butler might cost a little more as their youth tends to imply bigger upside, but with people down on Johnson and Glaus because of their injury history and Davis because of his average and strikeouts, they may prove to be the better value picks in the end. 

5th Tier and beyond:  Matt LaPorta, Conor Jackson, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Delgado, Mark Teahen, Michael Aubrey, Hank Blalock, Aubrey Huff, Casey Kotchman, Daniel Murphy, Daric Barton

     The bottom of the barrell for first basemen, if you will.  Matt LaPorta has great upside but still might not be major league ready yet, Conor Jackson needs to prove that last year’s Valley Fever won’t deter his progress and development as a better hitter, Carlos Delgado ain’t no spring chicken and isn’t even signed, and Mark Teahen could be a great sleeper with the White Sox but is likely better for third base or your outfield.  As for the others, it’s more tan likely to be a case of “you get what you pay for.”

Potential Position Battles

Logan Morrison vs. Gaby Sanchez, FLA — Morrison might have been a nice call-up last year, but the fractured wrist back in April put all of that on hold.  He’s got great power potential but he may need another year of Triple-A to really get going.  Sanchez was given a shot at the position last spring, but the club felt he had more work to do in the minors.  Most fantasy baseball projections don’t put his power too high but he seems to have hit for a decent average in the minors.  I see him fitting more of a James Loney profile, and for that, I feel that Morrison could end up with the job with a hot spring.

Steven Pearce vs Jeff Clement, PIT — Neither guy has done much in his time spent in the majors ove rthe last couple of years, so the Pirates will likely go with whoever is swinging the bigger bat come the end of spring.  The team has been looking for a reason to keep Pearce up with the big club, but he hasn’t given them much to plead his case.  I like Pearce’s potential more, but if he doesn’t put it together this spring, we’re going to be seeing a lot of Clement over here, yet another player who qualifies at a different position (catcher);  one in which he is much better suited for fantasy purposes.

Shortstops

1st Tier:  Hanley Ramirez

     While some will think I’m crazy for putting Hanley Ramirez all by himself, let me just say, that as a consensus top 3 pick overall (top 2 in my eyes), his fantasy value supersedes that of any other shortstop in the game.  He hits for power, he hits for average, and while he’s been knocked down to the 3 hole in the lineup for more RBI opportunities, he can still steal bases with the best of them.  Even better is that he just recently (Dec. 23rd) turned 26 and if you’ve read my piece about “26 being the new 27“, you know that even greener pastures lie ahead.  This kid is a stud;  no better way to say it.  If you lock him in, then you’ve got yourself the premier 5 tool guy at the thinnest position in fantasy baseball.

2nd Tier:  Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, Jose Reyes

     So now that I’m done fluffing Hanley, let’s talk about the next group.  Plenty will argue that these guys could/should be in the top tier as well, but each one has something, albeit something small, that makes you pause, even if just for a moment.  They are all fantastic options at the position, so don’t get me wrong.  If you end up with one of these guys, then you should already be a step ahead of your competition.

     Troy Tulowitzki had a fantastic rebound in 2009 for his fantasy owners.  After missing most of 2008 and disappointing all those that drafted him, Tulo came back strong.  Sure, his first 2 months were worrisome but for those that persevered through the dark days of April and May, they saw the light from June and beyond.  He finished the year hitting .297 with 32 HR, 92 RBI and 20 stolen bases;  numbers that would make anyone drool.  But I need to see him do it one more time before throwing him in the same tier as Hanley.  Not to mention, with his 20 SBs came 11 caught stealing (CS) so his 64.5% success rate tells me that those speed numbers might be coming down.  After all, in a down year for speed for him, Hanley’s was still 77.1%.

     For Jimmy Rollins, the power came back, the SBs dropped and the batting average tanked last season.  As a matter of fact, his .296 OBP was the lowest of his career and his .423 slugging percentage was his lowest since 2003.  The seasons have been starting off slowly for Rollins and it’s leaving questions as to whether or not the 31 year old is in decline.  Still, a 21-31 season is gold for fantasy purposes.

     Speaking of decline, have the so-called experts finished eating their humble pie served up fresh and hot from Derek Jeter?  Because he’s so high profile in New York and the world is filled with Yankee-haters, the debates were furious prior to last season.  I heard so much stupidity that even I had to respond.  But no one responded louder than Jeter as he enjoyed one the best offensive and defensive seasons of his career.  Unless your league counts errors against you, we can throw out the defensive stuff, so let’s stick with the offense.  A batting line of .334-18-66-30 with 107 runs scored says it all.  None were career highs, but how can you argue with those stats from a 14 year veteran?  You just can’t.  But I’m a realist and I’ll admit that his stats, as great as they were, will be hard for him to repeat.  I don’t think he’ll fall too short, but even I have to keep it all in perspective.

     Finishing off the tier is Jose Reyes.  Once a consensus top 5 pick overall, Reyes spent almost all of the 2009 season on the DL with what started as a calf strain but quickly developed into a full blown hamstring problem.  He had surgery to fix it, but then had to have another one in October to clean out some scar tissue.  I’m willing to give him a mulligam on ‘09, but you have to be concerned about a guy with such issues who makes his living off of his legs.

3rd Tier:  Ben Zobrist, Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Bartlett, Yunel Escobar, Elvis Andrus

     While some will question why I didn’t include Ben Zobrist in the second tier, I think it’s a no-brainer.  As great a year as he had, let’s just keep things in perspective and remember it was just on eyear.  Rather than reiterate what I’ve already written about him in the Second Base Tiers, I’ll just refer you back to that article.  I will mention, though, that based on the depth at short versus that of second base and even the outfield, Zobrist makes a better fantasy option here than he does at the other positions, so long as he qualifies.

     The rest of the tier has some solid players, but obviously not worth the level of investment it would take to secure one of the top two tiered guys.  Alexei Ramirez has a couple of question marks surrounding him, but I’m still a believer.  His rookie season was fantastic when he hit .290 with 21 HR and 77 RBI.  He also swiped 13 bases that year.  But last year he dropped in power and average and had a horrific .389 slugging percentage.  It could have been the ol’ sophomore slump or it could have been the wear and tear of a full season in the bigs.  But I think he’ll rebound this year.  He may not increase his stolen bases too much, but he’s got too much power potential to hit less than 20 HR in a season.  You might be able to talk him down in your league a little and make off with him in the middle to lower rounds.

     Asdrubal Cabrera and Elvis Andrus are two players on the rise.  Despite missing the month of June with a sprained shoulder, Cabrera still went on to hit .308 with 6 HR and 17 stolen bases in his first full year as a starter.  He’s 24 and looking to get better.  He might not hit .300 regularly, but if the Tribe keeps him at the top end of the lineup, he’s definitely going to improve on those SBs.  And speaking of SBs, how long before Andrus starts swiping 40+ each year?  His .266 average last season was a product of learning the major league game, but from the bottom of the order he still swiped 33 bases.  If he can make the necessary adjustments to get on base more, it’s going to be sooner rather than later that he gets his shot at the leadoff spot.

     Rounding out the tier are Jason Bartlett and Yunel Escobar;  a late bloomer and a guy right in his prime.  Bartlett, 30, blossomed once he was dealt away from the Twins and is making the Rays look like geniuses for having him “thrown in” to the Matt Garza for Delmon Young deal.  He was one of the hottest hitters in baseball last year, and while I don’t necessarily see him maintaining the power levels, I see no reason for him to not hit .300+ with another 25 to 30 stolen bases.  Escobar, on the other hand, I do see maintaining the power, if not kicking in a little more this year.  He’s improved offensively across the board these past 2 seasons and should put it all together for a rock solid third full year.  

4th Tier:  Miguel Tejada, Ryan Theriot, Jhonny Peralta, Stephen Drew, Alcides Escobar, Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro

     To be honest, there’s really not too much separating this tier of players from the one below.  In fact, I was almost tempted to combine the two, but each of the guys here has a little something that I like enough to put them above the rest of the lot.

     Let’s start with the old guys, er….I mean, veterans.  Miguel Tejada may not have a job yet, but someone’s going to bite after he put up a .313-14-86 season in 2009.  Sure, he’s a dinosaur in baseball fantasy circles, but if that dinosaur has the ability to contribute more power than the average shortstop, then he is far from extinct. 

     The same goes for Orlando Cabrera.  He, too, is without a home right now, but his .308-5-46 second half with 6 stolen bases helped ignite the Twins and pushed them past the Tigers to make the playoffs.  There are plenty of teams that can use his veteran leadership and there are plenty of fantasy teams that could do worse than his .285 average with 8-10 HR and a dozen stolen bases. 

     In the middle of this tier we have Ryan Theriot, Stephen Drew, Marco Scutaro, and Jhonny Peralta.  If you’ve been reading the tiers over the past few days, you’re already familiar with my thoughts on Peralta so I’ll just refer you to the Third Base Position Tiers and you can check it yourself.  I will say, though, that he’s a better fantasy pick here at short than he is over at third.

     Theriot reached a career high in homers last year (7), but you’re not using him for is power.  Nope.  He’s a decent average guy who will steal you 20 bases.  If you can accept the fact that he probably won’t reach those 7 homers again but will still swipe you 20 bags, then he’s a great low-cost option.

     Drew finds himself back down in these ranks simply because he peaked in ‘08.  He went from crappy average with mediocre power to high average with 20+ HR power and back to an even crappier average and further mediocrity with the stick.  While he may hit more HR than the other guys in this tier, his sub-.260 average is going to be a drain on your batting average and psyche.

     It’s amazing to me when a career utility guy hits .282 with 12 HR and 14 SB in one season out of six and suddenly he’s a breakout player.  Well, that’s what everyone was saying about Scutaro who topped 500 AB in a year for just the second time in his career.  Personally, I’m taking the sun shining on a dog’s ass atleast once approach here.  Despite going to Beantown, I just don’t see him improving on his totals and frankly, I don’t see a career .265 hitter topping .280 again.

     Finising off this tier is wild card Alcides Escobar.  He’s probably being locked in as a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper by most of the fantasy baseball magazines, so he might cost a little more than he should.  However, the Brewers saw enough in him to deal away J.J. Hardy and his minor league stats indicate a high average and great stolen bases.  But unless Ken Macha gives his boys the green light more (Milwaukee was 28th in SBs in 2009), we may never see that develop.

5th Tier:  Ian Desmond, J.J. Hardy, Erik Aybar, Cristian Guzman, Rafael Furcal, Edgar Renteria, Everth Cabrera, Cliff Pennington, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Alex Gonzalez, Jack Wilson, Cesar Izturis, Mike Aviles

     I can’t really say there’s too much I like about this tier and I’m going to do everything in my power to make sure I atleast find a 4th tier guy for my squads.  But if I hve to make a choice, then I’ll take the upside that Ian Desmond, Cliff Pennington and maybe Everth Cabrera bring with their youth.  None have really dazzled me, but I’d rather take a shot on a rookie than hope that Rafael Furcal’s surgically repaired back will hold up or that Jack Wilson won’t be downright useless in every imaginable roto category. 

 6th Tier and beyond:   Adam Everett, Tommy Manzella, Ronny Cedeno, Ramon Vazquez, Paul Janish, Chris Valaika, Jed Lowrie, Robert Andino, Tyler Green, Yuniesky Betancourt, Ramon Santiago, Omar Vizquel

     And if you think I’m sour on the 5th tier, imagine what I’m thinking about scraping the bottom of the shortstop barrel here.  If the Astros don’t grab a veteran shortstop, then maybe Tommy Manzella  might be a nice late round sleeper.  Same for the Reds and Paul Janish.  But really…if one of these guys is your starting shortstop, then you’ve got issues.

Designated Hitters

1st Tier:  Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz

     Right off the bat, here’s one of the enticing names.  No, not Big Papi…the other guy.  I really like Vladimir Guerrero’s move to Texas this year and feel like he’s going to have a tremendous season playing for his former club’s biggest division rival.  I’m not saying that he’s going to return to his 30+ HR form, but with a pectoral muscle and knee issues behind him, he has the chance to grab 450 AB with 25 HR and a .300 average.

     Despite last year’s resurgence where David Ortiz hit 27 of his 28 HR after the month of May (Yup, 1 HR in the first 2 months.  Yuck!), he is a hitter in decline.  The alleged steroids have allegedly caused a breakdown in his body, and couple that with the loss of Manny Ramirez in the lineup, and you’ve got a recipe for devolution.  You might be able to squeeze out another year of 25 HR, but forget about his average coming anywhere near respectability.

2nd Tier:  Hideki Matsui, Nick Johnson, Travis Hafner, Randy Ruiz, Andruw Jones, Pat Burrell, Ken Griffey, Jr., Mike Jacobs, Jim Thome

     The second tier has some interesting characters.  I won’t talk about Jim Thome or Mike Jacobs as neither of them has a job just yet.  I can go back and re-evaluate, but for now they are ships without a port.

     Hideki Matsui leaves New York to replace Vlad in Los Angeles, and while his knees won’t let him play the outfield anymore, he can still swing a bat and give you 20+ HR with a solid .285 average.  Replacing Godzilla in New York is the prodigal son come home, Nick Johnson.  Once a highly touted prospect in the Bronx, Johnson has failed to stay healthy in 7 of his last 8 seasons, but just might be able to play all year as a DH.  He’s got the ability to knock 20 dingers and actually qualifies as a first baseman.  I list him here for safety reasons…you might run the risk of him tearing something even just playing first on your fantasy team.

     Randy Ruiz is an interesting option, although I’m always reluctant to trust a rookie playing DH for his first full season.  The mind set is different and once they get wrapped up in their head about hitting, it’s tough for them to get back on track.  A demotion to the minors usually follows.  But Ruiz is not your typical rookie.  At 32 years old, the career minor leaguer with some decent power potential could have enough sense to handle the job.

     After that, you’ve got Ken Griffey, Jr., Pat Burrell, Travis Hafner, and Andruw Jones.  Not terrible options, but not great either.  Jones is the fantasy baseball sleeper for me in Chicago.  His average may stink on ice, but he did hit 17 HR in just 281 AB and despite the change of address, it’s still a nice hitter’s park.  The others?  Meh.  Not even the fantasy baseball magazines like them.

Outfielders

1st Tier:  Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury

     Unless someone has a real affectation for someone else, these should be the top 5 outfielders off the board this year.  Depending on how many teams are in your league, they could all disappear in the first round, but most likely, the first two.  Ryan Braun has easily established himself as the top fantasy outfielder with 3 straight phenomenal seasons.  As a matter fo fact, he’s averaging a .307 BA over that time with an average of 34 HR, 106 RBI and 16 SB.  For me, Matt Holliday, now officially re-signed with the Cardinals should put up some monster stats this year too with a full season of protecting Albert Pujols inthe lineup.  Think somewhere between his ‘06 and ‘07 totals. 

     Matt Kemp has also recently established himself as a player worthy of first tier consideration.  I was waiting to see how he’d follow up his 2008 breakout season before I was a believer and in ‘09 he turned in offensive improvements across the board.  OK, so maybe he stole one less base, but I’mnot nit-picking like that come draft day.  Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury are the burners again this year.  They might see some competition from some of the other guys below, but with 130 stolen bases in ‘09 between the two of them, along with .300+ batting averages, they stand head and shoulder above the rest today.  Good to see Crawford bringing that power back up to levels we were expecting.

2nd Tier:  Justin Upton, Jason Bay, Grady Sizemore, Adam Dunn, Ichiro Suzuki, Manny Ramirez, Jayson Werth, Bobby Abreu, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Lee

     In a few cases, there was the potential to put some guys into the top tier, but there are still some minor things holding me back.  Justin Upton put up a fantastic .300-26-20 season last year despite starting the season in a platoon role.  However, like I did with Kemp last year, I have to wait and see how he follows up.  I’m not saying he’s not worthy and shouldn’t be taken with a relatively high pick.  I’m just saying that I don’t want to fall for the same hype as we all did with his brother.  Jason Bay is another one who could be up there, but with the streakiness I saw last year, the .267 average and the move to Citi Field, I have to bump him down a spot or two despite the fact that he’ll likely break the 30 HR barrier again.

     Grady Sizemore’s value takes a little hit after last year’s injury problems.  There are plenty of fantasy baseball magazines hyping the comeback season, but you might want to hedge your expectations a bit.  While I still believe he is worthy of a high end pick, I don’t see him reaching those 30-30 levels anytime soon.  20-20 now, is a different story.

     Regardless of how well he’s done in the past two seasons, this could really be the year to own Jayson Werth.  The .273-24-20 season followed up with a .268-36-20 coupled with the contract year he is entering could mean that he puts it all together for a .275-32-20 year in 2010.  Of course, if the Phillies can’t afford him any longer and he signs elsewhere in 2011 he might not be joining such a great lineup in such a great hitters park.  But that’s for next year.

     In the meantime, the rest of the tier is rounded off with some rock solid veterans.  Adam Dunn continued to rake and brought up his average a little, Manny Ramirez should produce at solid levels now that the ‘roids scandal is behind him, Ichiro Suzuki will continue his assault on AL pitching while swiping a ton of bases, and Bobby Abreu should remain consistent.  I like Curtis Granderson even more now that he’s in that stacked Yankees lineup and hopefully he can work on hitting lefties and improve that BA.  And finally there’s “El Caballo”…  While Carlos Lee’s power might be diminishing a little with age, I think he can still throw you another 30+ HR season.  The average may dip below .300, but I’ll still take him!

3rd Tier:  Andre Ethier, Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Shin-Soo Choo, Raul Ibanez, Torii Hunter, Shane Victorino, Adam Jones, Josh Hamilton, Adam Lind, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Alex Rios, Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn, Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano

     The third tier is stacked with plenty of power and speed.  Guys like Nelson Cruz, Raul Ibanez, Josh Hamilton (if healthy),  Adam Lind, Ryan Ludwick and Carlos Quentin can rake with the best of them and should put up strong power numbers this year while speedster like B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn could take their games to the next level.  I like the all around play of Andre Ethier and Nick Markakis and would love to see each of them build on last year’s totals.  I feel like we’ve waited long enough on Markakis, so hopefully this is the year.  Same goes for Alex Rios.  I’m hoping that a full year with the White Sox will help him reach that potential we’ve all be very patiently awaiting.

     OK, so I’ll admit my Adam Jones man-crush right now.  I love this kid and I think he’s going to be a superstar one day, if he’s not already en route.  His ‘09 season of .277-19-70-10 was an outstanding build from his ‘08 rookie campaign.  The only sticking point, and one that I will risk every year, is that because he plays so “all-out”, because he’s a gamer, Jones ends up losing time with an array of minor injuries.  Nothing too serious, but enough to keep him under 500 AB the last 2 years.  If he can stay healthy here in his third full season, I don’t see why he can’t break 20 HR and increase that SB total as well.

     Torii Hunter continues to play at high levels and his 5 tool contributions are wothy of a roster spot in any fantasy league.  I though he was going to fade a year or two ago, but have been happily proven wrong.  Carlos Beltran, with the secret surgery that is now likely to keep him out through April, gets a bump down in value, but if he looks good in extended spring training, then you can probably expect good things from him.  Speaking of injuries, I’m hoping that Alfonso Soriano’s knee troubles are behind him.  That guy went from uber-stud to craptown pretty quickly over these last 2 years.  He’s supposed to be ready for Spring Training so let’s keep our fingers crossed.

     Rounding out the tier are two guys I really like but have a little bit of nervousness about.  Shin-Soo Choo put up a great year last season posting a 20-21 year with a .300 average in his first full year.  But with talk of how desperate he is to win a gold medal at the Asian Games in November (he gets to skip his 2 year military committment if he does), I’m wondering just how “all out” he’s going to go.  The other guy is “The Flyin’ Hawaiian”, Shane Victorino.  He took a small step back in his development last year and I’m wondering if getting buried in the bottom end of the order is going to continue to hinder that progress.  He can easily swipe 40+ bases, but with Jimmy Rollins slated for leadoff and Placido Polanco stepping into the 2 hole, there’s not much opportunity for him to hit higher than 7th in that order.

4th Tier:  Hunter Pence, Denard Span , Andrew McCutchen, Nolan Reimold,  Johnny Damon, Michael Cuddyer, Nate McLouth, Julio Borbon, Jermaine Dye, Rajai Davis, Nyjer Morgan, Vernon Wells, Corey Hart, Brad Hawpe, Cody Ross, Juan Pierre, Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Coghlan, Luke Scott

     Upside, potential, possibilities, you name it.  That’s what we’re looking at from a lot of this tier.  Players like Denard Span, Andrew McCutchen, Nolan Reimold, Julio Borbon, Jay Bruce, Chris Coghlan and Carlos Gonzalez are all fairly young, produced decent 2009 totals and all have room to grow.  Personally, I like McCutchen and Borbon for their speed and I’m not losing faith in Bruce.  The average really needs to come up, but that .353-4-16 September he turned in makes me worry a lot less about his recovery from afractured wrist.  The others should be nice middle round pick ups.

      There are also some veterans that have a good chance to make an impact this year as Juan Pierre returns to full time leadoff duties for the White Sox, Johnny Damon still may stay with the Yankees, and Rajai Davis gets a chance to start in Oakland for the first time.  Maybe it’s because I’m now covering the White Sox for Fanball.com this season, but I really like Pierre as a guy to grab if you miss out on one of the top burners.  Jermaine Dye is still up in the air, but wherever he signs, if he starts, you can still probably expect 20 HR from him.

     As for the other vets in this tier…Michael Cuddyer probably won’t reach that 30 HR total again, but another 20-25 aren’t out of the question, Cody Ross has been improving the last 2 years since getting the starting nod and Luke Scott should continue the decent power/low average trend that he always follows.  Brad Hawpe stays down in this tier because he just can’t keep it going all season long.  He puts up solid numbers overall, but he’s like Jekyll and Hyde each year.  In ‘08 it was the brutally slow start with a monster second half and last season it was the opposite.  I like to call it Nate McLouth Disorder (NMD).  Until he can give me an entire season of steady production, he stays down here. As for McLouth, well, he was doing the same thing, atleast until he kept getting hurt after being traded to the Braves.  We’ll see how he rebounds this year, but again, it’ll probably be for just half the season.

     Finishing off the tier are Corey Hart and Vernon Wells.  Hart went consecutive 20-20 seasons before last year’s disastrous totals, and spent most of the second half on the shelf with broken fingers and an appendectomy.  For me, he (along with Grady Sizemore, but with less talent) is the perfect example of 26 being the new 27.  He peaked in ‘08 at 26 and fell apart the year everyone thought he was going to take his game to the next level.  Should be interesting to see if he rebounds, but if he does, he could be a solid middle to late round fantasy baseball sleeper.  Wells, on the other hand, is a little more risky.  He’s been on the decline since ‘07 and never actually reached that potential we all heard about.  In fact, he’s been pretty inconsistent across the board.  His average is up and down along with his power totals and it’s getting tougher to predict what he’s going to do from year to year.  But that inconsistency just might be good for you if you want to take a late round flyer on him.  Talk him down in your league, scoop him up in the draft and hope/pray for a return to atleast the 25 HR level.     

5th Tier:  Magglio Ordonez, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron, Xavier Nady, Jason Kubel, David DeJesus, Garrett Jones, Milton Bradley, Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Josh Willingham, Kosuke Fukudome, Marlon Byrd, Skip Schumaker, Delmon Young, Franklin Gutierrez, Jeremy Hermida, Nick Swisher, Mark DeRosa, Aaron Rowand, Kyle Blanks, Melky Cabrera

      Now we’re starting to move in to the declining veterans, the injury risks and the youngsters who may or may not have a starting job come the first of April.  Guys like J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron, Xavier Nady, Milton Bradley, and Josh Willingham all have the potential to put up solid power numbers, but their propensity for getting hurt puts a damper on drafting them.  I like 20 HR potential, but I’m often reluctant to draft a guy with an injury history the size of Prince Fielder’s grocery shopping list.

     But some of the guys here have some great potential as well.  Garrett Jones looked great in the second half last season, but obviously needs to show me he can produce over a full season.  How many times have we seen a guy come out like a house of fire after a call-up and then disappear into thin air the following year?  I also like the upside of Colby Rasmus, especially if the Cards put him in the 2 hole in the order.  He excelled last season hitting up there in front of Pujols, so maybe they’ll keep that going.  And then there’s Dexter Fowler.  As it stands right now, he’s behind Carlos Gonzalez on the depth chart, but I like what he has to offer.  His speed is that of a high end burner, but he’s also got some pop in his bat.  Nothing huge, but there’s something there.  He won the starting job early last year, but his undisciplined approach at the plate kept his average and OBP low enough that he only swiped 27 bases (5 in one game) and lost his starting job by season’s end.  If he has a hot spring and Gonzalez doesn’t, then I’d look into drafting him.

     Kyle Blanks has potential, but sitting behind Adrian Gonzalez isn’t helping.  Howvere of trade of either one of them puts Blanks back up there in value.  And sadly, the Braves will soon learn what the Yankees have known all along.  Melky Cabrera is the best Quadruple-A ball player out there.  His totals should be about average, especially moving from favorable Yankee Stadium to pitcher friendly Turner Field.

     As for the rest in the tier, I think you know what you need to know about them.  Nothing special, but nothing terrible.  Some streakiness in there for guys like Aaron Rowand and Kosuke Fukudome, an over-performer last year in Marlon Byrd, and a likely reduction in power for Mark DeRosa as he heads to the cold, damp San Francisco air.

6th Tier:  Carlos Guillen, Jack Cust, David Murphy, Jeff Francoeur, Chris Young, Jose Guillen, Matt LaPorta, Mark Teahen, Coco Crisp, Seth Smith, Matt Diaz, Scott Podsednik, Elijah Dukes, Carlos Gomez, Conor Jackson, Chase Headley, Travis Snider, Willy Taveras, Eugenio Velez, Juan Rivera, Cameron Maybin, Drew Stubbs, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Sweeney, Brian Giles, Lastings Milledge, Gerardo Parra

     Another tier of potential but without much excitement, so I’ll just highlight a few that I like going later in the draft.  Matt LaPorta has great power upside but might need another year before reaching his potential, Mark Teahen could finally hit 20 HR in his first year with the White Sox, Travis Snider has sleeper power potential, Drew Stubbs could be a great power/speed combo, and I like both Eugenio Velez and Carlos Gomez for quality late round speed options.

     Cameron Maybin could be the steal in your draft, though, as he has failed to deliver on the hype, not once but twice.  But let’s not forget that he only turns 23 in April and could turn into the power/speed threat that we’ve all been expecting if he earns the starting job with the Marlins this spring.  A lot of people have been down on him since the hype started two years ago, so hopefully your fellow GMs will overlook him and you’ll be able to steal him late.  I know I’m going to.

7th Tier and beyond:  Randy Winn, Austin Jackson, Trevor Crowe, Gary Matthews, Jr., Rick Ankiel, Brett Gardner, Desmond Jennings, Tony Gwynn, Jr., Michael Saunders, Jason Heyward, Ben Francisco, Garrett Anderson, Nate Schierholtz, Fred Lewis, Ryan Church, Scott Hairston, Marcus Thames, Matt Joyce, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Spilborghs, Chris Dickerson, Willie Harris, Fernando Tatis, Reggie Willits, Jason Michaels, Jordan Schafer, Eric Hinske, Reed Johnson, Will Venable, Brandon Moss, Willie Bloomquist, Wilkin Ramirez

     And then there’s the rest of them.  The part-timers, the back-ups, the short end of the platoon.  These are goign to be your super late round flyers and likely the handcuffs to your injury prone outfielders.  There are some that have som edecent upside, but i’m not thinking any of these guys unti after round 20 at the earliest.  I’ll definitely keep an eye on Austin Jackson, who could start for the Tigers this year, Trevor Crowe who might get a look in Cleveland, Tony Gwynn, Jr. could be starting for the Brewers, and maybe Desmond Jennings if the Rays are looking to mix things up.  Beyond that, I’m looking at a bunch of waiver pick ups if I incur injuries or am just totally desperate for a body in there.

Starting Pitchers

1st Tier:  Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren

     Plain and simple…the cream of the crop.  If you’re going to make the move and invest a high draft pick or excessive bid dollars in a starter, then it better be one of these guys.  These 5 are as reliable as you can get and any one fo them can end up doing the work of 2 (maybe even 3) lower tiered startes.

     Tim Lincecum, with his back to back Cy Youngs in his first 2 seasons in the bigs, is the unquestioned ace of aces.  His ratios are ridiculous, his strikeouts are mind-blowing and you know what…the wins are going to follow this year.  While they haven’t done crazy things this offseason, the Giants have definitely beefed up their lineup enough that little Timmy shouldn’t be losing those heartbreaking 2-1 decisions like he has in the past.  Expect him to continue the path that he’s on, especially when he could be playing for a contract this year.

     The move to the Phillies could do wonders for Roy Halladay.  No, I don’t expect him to win 25 games this year, but in all honesty, it really wouldn’t be that far-fetched.  I see Halladay’s K’s improving with the move to the NL (who doesn’t love replacing a DH with a pitcher at the plate?) and his ratios should stay relatively intact.  The only concern I may have, and this would not deter me from him at all in the draft, is that his “HR allowed” went up a little these past 2 seasons and Citizens’ Bank Ballpark plays like my backyard sometimes.

     I’ll admit that it took me a couple of seasons to warm up to the idea of Zack Greinke being an ace, but lo and behold, here he is in my top tier.  He’s made improvements on his ratios every year since 2005, boosted his strikeouts and even increased his wins despite pitching for the woeful Royals.  It looks like the social anxiety disorder is being properly treated and I think Greinke’s 2009 totals should be where he plateaus for another couple of seasons.

     Rounding out the top tier are CC Sabathia and Dan Haren.  Both are high quality starters and while I’d rather have the previous 3 over these guys, they’re still head and shoulders above the rest.  Sabathia could easily post 20 win seasons for the almighty Yankees while keeping his ratios in check, and his K’s should hover in the 200 range.  Haren, has been one of the most underrated of aces in the game, but coul dstand to work on his efforts in the second half.  It’s always the same story with him — lights out first half, mediocrity in the second.  You can bet he’ll be on the top of everyone’s “sell high” list by the end of June.

2nd Tier:  Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Javier Vazquez, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Josh Beckett

     I’m sure you’ve just glanced through the names of the second tier and are probably thinking, “Hey!  Some of these guys are top tier material, aren’t they?”  Well, yes…and no.  I love a lot of these guys for this season, but like I did with my other positional tiers, I’ve left the top for the unquestioned and the unflappable.  These guys here in the second tier all have great stuff and coul dvery well be considered aces, but there’s a little something that’s holding me back.

     Take Felix Hernandez for instance.  King Felix had a Cy Young worthy season in 2009 with his 19 wins, 217 K, 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  Outstanding.  But let’s face facts…the kid is only 23 and has already thrown 190+ innings for 4 straight seasons.  He hasn’t posted numbers this good since his 2005 call-up and he pitches for the Mariners.  So what am I saying?  I’m saying he may be great and he may duplicate his ‘09 totals, but the odds of a major arm injury or a reversion to his ‘07/’08 ratios are pretty high, in my opinion.

     Justin Verlander is another one that I question.  His 2009 totals were insane.  No question.  Anytime you strike out 269 batters and win 19 games you have to be put a cut above the rest.  But in looking at his numbers in previous years, I think the Verlander you get this year will be more in line with the one you got back in 2007.  You may not get the 18 wins, but the other numbers should fall in line.

     Beyond those two, you’ve got some real nice starters here to work with.  I’m a big fan of  Josh Johnson and believe that he is en route to being in the top tier very soon.  The same could be said for Jon Lester.  The Cardinals’ tandem of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter should continue to perfom at high levels, Cole Hamels is looking for a rebound, and Cliff Lee returns to the AL, but in a much better ballpark for himself.  You also have solid starters in Matt Cain and Josh Beckett, both who can put up ace-like numbers in a given season.

     A couple of question marks round out the tier for me — Javier Vazquez comes off a phenomenal season for the Braves but returns to the Yankees where he definitely experienced some difficulties his last time around, Jake Peavy who has his first full season in the AL with the White Sox while still trying to show that the elbow is healthy, and Johan Santana who is also making his way back from elbow issues.  Santana threw 24 pitches off of a mound on Tuesday and swears he’s ready for Spring Training and Opening Day, and that might be the case, but I have some concerns about the full year. 

3rd Tier:  Clayton Kershaw, Jered Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Brandon Webb, John Lackey, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jair Jurrjens, Scott Baker, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Tommy Hanson, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Scott Kazmir, A.J. Burnett, Carlos Zambrano

     There’s some great talent to be found in this tier of pitchers; a great mix of youngsters and veterans who can all contribute to your fantasy success this year and should all be right about the same place in your fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings.  If you’re looking for youth with great upside, then Clayton Kersahw, Chad Billingsley, John Danks, Jered Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson make for great picks.  Weaver, Danks and Jurrjens all looked great in their third full year last year and should continue to produce, while Kershaw and for all intents and purposes Gallardo (missed almost all of 2008), are primed for their ”third year starter” breakouts.  Hanson dominated once he was up in the bigs last year and with the stuff he’s got, I expect big things from him even so early on in his career.  Billingsley struggled last season, but if he can come out again like he did in the first half of last year, then he should be fine.  He might be a good sell-high candidate if you’re nervous about his second half performance agaain.

     As for some of the veterans, Brandon Webb is hoping to stage a nice comeback, John Lackey is looking to rebound in Boston, James Shields should improve his overall numbers, and A.J. Burnett has been a great addition to the Yankees rotation.  I’ve never been a huge Ryan Dempster fan but his numbers from the past 2 seasons prove that he can eat innings and maintain decent ratios.  While Carlos Zambrano is obviously on the decline, he’s likely to throw atleast one more good season before he totally craps out.  And Scott Kazmir looked like he was getting back into form withthe move to the Angels.  He won’t ever be as dominant as he was in 2007, but should be a great #2 or 3 starter for your team.

     Rounding out the bunch are Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco and Max Scherzer.  They are all solid starters and their strikeouts and ratios should be a great help to your pitching staff.  Baker and Garza have both been favorites of mine for some time now.  They both could use some improvements in ERA, but this is, pretty much, Garza’s third full year, and Baker is coninuing to improve on his K/BB ratio.  Scherzer could be a nice fantasy sleeper this season.  Plenty of people will dismiss him due to the move to the AL, but with the heat he can bring, that nasty slider and the move to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, I expect great numbers from him in 2010.

4th Tier:  Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden, Brett Anderson, Erik Bedard, Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, Johnny Cueto, J.A. Happ, Scott Feldman, Clay Buchholz, Jorge De La Rosa, Andy Pettitte

     Now we’re moving into the area where research is of the utmost importance.  When you’re trying to build a pitching staff using mostly lower tiered guys, you have to do a lot of studying.  It’ll pay off in the end, especially if your offense is killer, but you have to be careful.  One of the first things you should be looking at is a player’s WHIP.  Sabermetric junkies will talk about DIPS and BIPA, but if you just take the time to check out a pitcher’s WHIP, you can come to the same conclusions, more or less.

     For example, before the shoulder surgery that will keep him out fo the first month, I would have had Ted Lilly up in this tier and hyping him big time.  For the last 3 seasons, Lilly has been one of the Cubs most reliable starters and has averaged a 1.15 WHIP over the last 3 years.  That’s what you should be looking for when picking up pitchers down here.  We’ll have to see where he ends up, but Erik Bedard is someone you should track that fits that mold. Same thing with Hiroki Kuroda.  He may have lost time to injury last year, but he’s got a 1.19 average WHIP for the last 3 seasons.  Ditto for Rich Harden, but he’s more prone to the DL than most.

     Amongst the others that I like here are Mark Buehrle, Randy Wolf, Brett Anderson, Kevin Slowey and even Jorge De La Rosa.  Buehrle and Wolf are nice reliable veterans, Anderson showed he’s ready for big league action, and Slowey is still a pitcher on the rise.  De La Rosa’s ratios might be a bit high, but they’re not terrible, especially if he’s going to give you close to 200 Ks.

     I can’t really downgrade based on personal feelings, but I don’t have much confidence in Wandy Rodriguez even coming close to his numbers from last year and I think J.A. Happ will struggle in his second season with the Phillies.  I also think Edwin Jackson, despite the move to the NL, could struggle in hitter-friendly Chase Field.  My jury is still out on Clay Buchholz, another season from Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt’s comeback, and Johnny Cueto.  I like them in this tier, but we’ll likely make adjustments in the Starting Pitcher Rankings and Cheat Sheets as we move along in the spring.

5th Tier:  Joel Pineiro, Gil Meche, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Sanchez, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Jeff Niemann, Joe Blanton, Derek Lowe, Randy Wells, Ervin Santana, Rick Porcello, Joe Saunders, Bronson Arroyo, Kevin Millwood, Jarrod Washburn, Jason Marquis, Brad Penny, Ted Lilly, Zach Duke, Aaron Cook, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Ben Sheets

     Same philosophy as the above tier when scouring through the numbers, but you’re likely goign to have to take a few more gambles down here.  You’ve got some good upside in guys like Rick Porcello, Joba Chamberlain (if he doesn’t end up in the pen), Jeff Niemann, Randy Wells, and David Price.  They’re all young enough that they can throw in a nice breakout season for you.  I also like Madison Bumgarner a lot, and whil ehe sits in this tier, you are likely to get him at a serious bargain price.  Just keep him on your radar.

     Now that Ben Sheets has signed with Oakland, you can start monitoring his sessions.  He’s a bit of a risk, not having pitched at all in 2009, but his upside is huge and the ballpark he now calls hom is cavernous.  And then there’s the legend of Stephen Strasburg.  The kid has crazy talent, no doubt.  But you are more than likely going to overpay this year for him.  If you’re in a keeper league then it might not be too bad, but I don’t necessairly trhink he’ll have that big an impact in 2010.  I figure he’ll spend the first half of the season in the minors and once the Nationals are completely out of it, they’ll bring him up to test the waters. 

     The rest are an interesting collection of veterans whom you may find to be quite valuable.  Fantasy sleepers I like include Jarrod Washburn, Jason Marquis and Brad Penny.  All thre looked solid last year and have all moved to teams with either a strong offense or a nice friendly ballpark.  I am not sold on Joel Pineiro, however.  People might reach for him, but his return to the AL with the Angels could bring back the nightmares of 2005 and 2006.  

6th Tier:  Barry Zito, Carl Pavano, Trevor Cahill, Ross Ohlendorff, Kevin Correia, Tommy Hunter, Wade Davis, Aaron Harang, Chien-Ming Wang, Kojii Uehara, Robinson Tejeda, Tim Wakefield, Homer Bailey, John Maine, Francisco Liriano, Brad Bergeson, Brett Myers, Justin Duchscherer, Ricky Romero, Chris Volstad, Marc Rzepczynski, Derek Holland, Kyle Lohse, Nick Blackburn, Kenshin Kawakami

     We’re getting deeper and deeper here and treading through some rough waters now.  This is where you need to be really selective.  Some interesting names like Trevor Cahill, Ricky Romero, Chris Volstad and Nick Blackburn all intrigue me, so those are names I will certainly monitor throughout the spring. 

     Justin Duchscherer is another interesting buy-low candidate, but we need to see, not only the condition of his hip, but his state of mind as well.  Guys who slip into DL stints due to depression make me nervous.  If the mental aspect is so important to a pitcher’s results, then we need to make sure his head’s on straight before drafting him. 

     You can definitely do worse than some of the veterans in here, but Barry Zito, Carl Pavano and Aaron Harang are always a concern.  If Zito and Pavano can duplicate last year’s totals, then they’ll be good for the back end of your rotation, but these are not consistent starters that you can rely on.  Harang?  I wouldn’t touch him these days, but he’s probably a better option than mmost of the guys you’ll see below.

7th Tier and beyond:  Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, John Lannan, Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Paul Maholm, Jon Garland, Jeremy Guthrie, Dallas Braden, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow, Bud Norris, Vicente Padilla, John Smoltz, Anibal Sanchez, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, David Huff, Mike Pelfrey, Armando Galarraga, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Justin Masterson, Jason Hammel, Ian Snell, Fausto Carmona

     Coin flips here, folks.  There are some here that have had their moments in the sun, but this is about as inconsistent as you can get.  Some interesting sleepers in Dallas Braden, Vicente Padilla , John Smoltz, Brandon Morrow, Justin Masterson and Armando Galaragga, but guys in this tier are guys you’re likely forced to play based on matchups.

Closers and Relief Pitchers

1st Tier:  Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton

     The clear cut, 2010 top 5 closers in the game right now.  So says me and pretty much all of the fantasy baseball magazine right now.  I’m sure some folks will try to replace a name here or there depending on their preferences, but as far as fantasy closers go, these are my picks.  Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera have topped these rankings for years, and the only thing that could hold them off of it is retirement.  They are about as automatic as you can get these days and obviously they both pitch for ultra-competitive teams.  Depending on your style of league, these guys might cost you, but in the end, it’ll be worth it.

     Joakim Soria is the perfect example of using a high end closer who resides on a bad team and being successful.  Soria, or “The Mexecutioner” as he is known in baseball circles, took a little step back last year due to injury but still posted 30 saves with a 2.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP for the woeful Royals.  Personally, I love him and won’t ever hesitate to draft him.  The Royals might be a bad team, but they’re still going to win a bunch of games and, more than likely, those games should be close.  He’s going to get saves.  Hell, in 2008 the Royals won 75 games and Soria saved 42 of them.

     Jonathan Papelbon and Jonathan Broxton round off the top tier.  They are both elite, maintain fantastic ratios and will get plenty of save opps this season.  Papelbon struggled a little bit last year as he seemed to be pitching a little more cautiously and walked more guys (24) than he has ever in a given year.  He also had some troubles in the playoffs last year.  But he should also bounce back nicely this season and get back to pitching closer to what we expect of him.  Broxton, in his first full year as the Dodgers’ closer, was lights out.  He did have some foot issues in the second half, but come on…114 Ks in 76 innings with 36 saves and a sub 1.00 WHIP?  Sold! 

2nd Tier:  Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Marmol, Jose Valverde, Heath Bell, Brian Wilson, David Aardsma

     The next group is almost as tasty as the first for the sake of fantasy baseball.  While the Mets rotation may be suspect, Francisco Rodriguez remains a stalwart out of the pen.  He did some struggling last year, especially with his ratios, but so did all the Mets.  The team, this year, expects a full rebound from everyone (save for Carlos Beltran, I’m sure), so expect to see K-Rod return to form.  He’s never going to duplicate his record breaking 62 save season, but let’s be realistic.  If he save 35, then I’m happy.

     Lou Pinella and the Cubs finally stopped screwing around and finally handed Carlos Marmol the job last year.  Unfortunately, they didn’t get quite the results they hoped as his walk rate got a bit out of control.  Perhaps it was the change in pressure and preparation he goes through changing from set-up to closer.  But he should right that ship this year and should walk away from Spring Training with the confidence of his manager and his team.  Marmol’s strikeout potential is off the charts so as long as he gets himself mentally in shape, he’ll be fine.

     We’ve got another pair of new guys here in Heath Bell and David Aardsma.  Bell had the pressure of taking over for the San Diego legend, Trevor Hoffman, and excelled.  Another closer for a bad team, Bell notched 42 saves last year with a 2.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP for the dismal Padres and while he might not look like the most athletic guy out there, he’s got nasty stuff fo rthe 9th inning.  Aardsma took a different route as the Mariners spent most of the first 2 months of 2008 unsuccessfully shuffling around their pen.  Finally, they turned to Aardsma and the righty rang up 38 saves and 80 Ks in just uner 72 innings of work.  The M’s did nothing to bring inany bullpen competition for him, so the job is his this season and should make for a nice pick.

     Finishing off the group are new Tigers closer Jose Valverde and the Giants’ Brian Wilson.  Some might be nervous about Valverde’s switch to the AL, but it’s a little different for 9th inning guys who are there just to throw the heat (see today’s quote).  Although he missed a little time with injury last season he still managed 25 saves for the lowly Astros and actually improved on his ratios.  I expect him to have a great year in Detroit!  As for Wilson, well, he’ll make you plenty nervous but he still manages to get the job done.  He’s got great stuff, but sometimes he’ll have the tendency to overthrow and will end up with a guy or two on base.  Still, his ratios are tight and his save opps will be plenty.  Draft with confidence. 

3rd Tier:  Bobby Jenks, Billy Wagner, Rafael Soriano, Brian Fuentes, Andrew Bailey, Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Cordero, Huston Street

     This next group should all come a little cheaper in auctions and a little later in snake-drafts, but shoudl all still be reasonably reliable.  There are high expectations in Chicago for a new slim and trim Bobby Jenks and I expect him to deliver.  The Braves took a shot on Billy Wagner and should benefit from that experienced leadership in the pen, while the Rays picked up the Braves former closer in Rafael Soriano.  It’s the first time in a long time that the Rays have a bonafide closer in their pen, but there may be an injury concern here or there.  Still, I like him enough in Tampa to draft him.

     Speaking of injury concerns, you’ve still got Huston Street closing out games in Colorado.  He had a real nice comeback last year and although he lost some time, he still notched 35 saves for the always competitive Rockies.  After that you’ve got old vets like the ageless Trevor Hoffman, Francisco “Coco” Cordero and Brian Fuentes.  All three should be solid middle to late round closer picks, but you’ve always got to be on your guard.  Aside from Hoffman’s age, you’ve also got the fact that both Fuentes and Cordero have had their struggles in their careers and could implode at any time.  Always wise to handcuff them to their set-up guys.

     And finally, there’s Andrew Bailey, 2009’s AL Rookie of the Year.  Now I’m not going to deny Bailey’s stuff and he pitched beautifully for the hapless A’s last year.  But there are 3 things to keep in mind — Brad Ziegler only lost his job due to injury, Joey Devine was the guy the A’s really wanted for the job, and this article I wrote a little way’s back.  Bailey still makes for a good option right now, but always make sure you have a contingency plan.

4th Tier:  Brad Lidge, Frank Francisco, Matt Capps, Ryan Franklin, Brandon Lyon, Jason Frasor, Chad Qualls, Kerry Wood, Leo Nunez, Mike Gonzalez

     So this group is the guys that all, as of right now, have the closer’s job for their respective teams.  They also have a few concerns of which you should be wary.  Brad Lidge went from super-stud to super-suck last year and needs to prove he’s ready for duty this spring, Frank Francisco got hurt and struggled in his return (hurt me big time in the second half last year), Matt Capps stays on a crappy team and has a guy behind him that was originally promised the job, Brandon lyon moves from Detroit to hitter-friendly Houston, and Mike Gonzalez switches the other way and leaves Atlanta for hitter-friendly Camden Yards.

     You also have some questions with Ryan Franklin who, while he did an amazing job last year for the Cards, is 38 years old and has plenty of vultures lurking.  Chad Qualls takes back over in Arizona, a job he was given but lost when the D-Backs had enough confidence in him to bring in Valverde (that’s sarcasm, folks), Kerry Wood is…well, Kerry Wood, Jason Frasor has the nod right now after taking over the job last year,and Leo Nunez continues in Florida after winning the job in the second half last year.  All will start off withthe job and get their save opps, but just be careful and pay attention to how they do alongside their set-up men.

5th Tier:  Octavio Dotel, Joel Hanrahan, Fernando Rodney, Matt Lindstrom, Brad Ziegler, Scott Downs, Takashi Saito, LaTroy Hawkins, C.J. Wilson

     And here come the set-up men.  Well mostly.  I’ve got Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan over here because they should be competing for the job in Pittsburgh this spring.  They both have experience and they both have issues, so we’ll have to wait this one out.  After that you’ve got guys who have experience as closers, may have lost the job at some point in their careers, but all could play a major role in 2010.  Fernando Rodney backs up Fuentes who has lost his job before, Matt Lindstrom has experience and sits behind Lyon in Houston, and C.J. Wilson was pretty reliable taking over for Francisco in Texas.

     Scott Downs was doing very well in Toronto until he got hurt, so I’m watching him and Frasor very closely this spring, and finally there’s LaTroy Hawkins who now backs up Hoffman in Milwaukee and Takashi Saito who was brought in as insurance for Wagner in Atlanta.  Theses aren’t necessairly the guys you draft, but more the guys you pick up early on as waiver picks.

6th Tier and beyond:  Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, John Grabow, George Sherrill, Chris Perez, Brian Bruney, Ryan Madson, J.P. Howell, Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt, Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Zumaya, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, Phil Hughes, Kevin Gregg

     And speaking of waiver picks, that’s pretty much what you’ve got here.  This tier is comprised of the possibles in case of injury or seriosu meltdowns.  To highlight a few that I like, we have Franklin Morales in Colorado, Brian Bruney in Washington, Ryan Madson in Philly, and the tandem of Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan in St. Louis.  I’d also keep and eye on Chris Perez in Cleveland and maybe J.P. Howell in Tampa.  Again, no one you go after in your main draft but definitely keep them on your radar all spring long.