Position Tiers

2011 Fantasy Baseball Position Tiers

Catchers

1st Tier:  Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Buster Posey, Victor Martinez

     No surprises here as the top group of backstops has remained relatively unchanged for some time.  New to the group is Posey, 2010′s NL Rookie of the Year.  Normally I’m not a huge fan of ROY’s in their sophomore season (remember this article?), but Posey is something special.  This kid is a player and a great long term keeper as well.  He should hit right around .300 again, and with the extra two months in the bigs that he didn’t have last season, should also clear the 20 HR barrier as well.

     As for the others, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect,  Last year, mauer showed that the power may be there, but it’s not a lock.  The high batting average and solid run production are, though, which keeps him atop the leaderboard.  McCann is the power guy and should continue to be just as productive this season as he has been in years past.  V-Mart is a bit of a wild card for me here, what with the move to Detroit and all, but when healthy, he’s still 20 HR power with a .300 average.

2nd Tier:  Matt Wieters, Geovany Soto, Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli

     Wieters has been a little disappointing, but the potential has always been there.  Perhaps the last time I keep him in this tier, but with an improved lineup in Baltimore, I’m willing to give him one more shot.  Soto proved last year that his power was no fluke and had he stayed healthy, he would have easily cleared 20 HR for the season.  Look for him to be, at the least, just as productive as he was last season.  We all know what we’re getting from Napoli, power and average wise, which is nice, but the question for him again will be the number of at bats.  He’s platooning behind the plate, at first and at DH, so he should atleast get enough to make him a worthwhile choice.

     The wild card here is Santana.  He started off rock solid last year and was on his way to proving his supporters right until the knee injury occurred.  With a full recovery and a full season of at bats, he could soon launch himself into the top tier as a great power-average combo.

3rd Tier:  Kurt Suzuki, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin, A.J. Pierzynski, Jorge Posada, Miguel Olivo

     Some interesting choices here.  Suzuki is fairly consistent, but you’re not likely to see much in the way of power though.  Between 10 and 15 HR is where he should sit with a .270ish average.  And that’s probably where I would put Olivo, with the move to Seattle, and Pierzynski, who is probably on his last legs in Chi-Town.  Then you’ve got your dueling backstops in New York, both of which could be decent options this year.  Martin could see an increase in power with the move to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, whil ePosada could see a bit of a resurgence as the now full-time DH has a better chance of staying healthy.

     The wild card here is Montero who has great power potential but disappointed fantasy owners everywhere with his injury last season.  The job is his and there’s no Chris Snyder lurking over his shoulder, so with a full season, he could put up some solid HR and RBI totals.

4th Tier:  Carlos Ruiz, Chris Iannetta, Chris Snyder, John Buck, J.P. Arencibia, Yadier Molina, Jonathan Lucroy

     There’s definitely some potential here, but with a number of caveats.  Iannetta is getting another chance to prove himself and could excel this year….or he could start losing at bats to Jose Morales.  Lucroy and Arencibia could both do well for their resepctive teams as both are being given the opportunity to start for their teams full time.  Buck becomes a little less attractive now that he’s in Florida, Snyder will be quietly productive if he can stave off Ryan Doumit, and Molina and Ruiz are decent average guys who may not have a lot of pop, but won’t hurt you like some of the lower tiered backstops you’ll get stuck with if you don’t grab someone by this point.

5th Tier and Beyond:  John Jaso, Ramon Hernandez, Rod Barajas, Jeff Mathis, Nick Hundley, Jason Castro, Ronny Paulino, Ivan Rodriguez

     You know exactly what you’re getting when you’re shopping down here.  It means the rest of your team better be rock solid.  If Jaso can learn to hit lefties, he could be a nice little sleeper here as he will likely hit leadoff on days that he does play.  I’m not totally sold on the idea because he’s not really a speedy guy, but Joe Maddon likes him and that’s what counts most.

First Basemen

1st Tier:  Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez

     Do I really need to get into more detail?  These guys are straight up fantasy monsters.  Pujols and Cabrera are perennial triple crown threats, Votto doe sit all and throws in some speed too, and A-Gone finally escapes Petco Park and should be a 40-120 guy in Beantown.  Nothing gives me a bigger smile than having one of these guys on my team.  OK, maybe not nothing…

2nd Tier:  Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira

     A small step below the first tier, but not by much.  Fielder will prove that last year’s decline was a fluke, Tex will get off to his usual slow start but put out great overlal numbers, and Howard and Dunn are high power, low batting average.  Neither are the best of options for leagues that penalize for strikeouts, but if that’s not an issue, then draft with confidence.  For Dunn owners, there may be a slight adjustment period moving to the AL, but U.S. Cellular Field plays even better to his swing than Great American did.

3rd Tier:  Justin Morneau, Kendry Morales, Kevin Youkilis, Billy Butler, Aubrey Huff, Paul Konerko

     Still some solid talent here, but there are obviously a few things that separate them from the above mashers.  Morneau and Morales are both coming back from major injuries.  I think Morales will have the easier path as his fluke broken ankle was what cut his 2010 short.  He’s completely healed and should return to that 30+ HR power we enjoyed in 2009.  Morneau’s road to recovery is a lot more tricky as it was both the concussion and the bad back that ruined his 2010 season.  There’s even talk about him not being ready for the start of the season so draft with caution.  But when healthy, he’s an RBI machine.

     Youk (a better option at thrid eventually) and Butler might not have the same power of their contemporaries, but both keep their batting averages above the .300 mark, post solid RBI totals and can still cross that 20 HR mark.  As for Huff and Konerko, both are solid options that can post a decent batting average and pop 20+ as well.  They’re a little older, but that shouldn’t be too much of a concern this year unless you’re thinking long term keepers.

4th Tier:  Buster Posey, Gaby Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, Derrek Lee, James Loney, Michael Cuddyer, Adam Lind, Carlos Lee, Ike Davis, Mike Napoli

     Kind of a mixed bag here and obviously not my ideal choices, but still serviceable.  Posey and Napoli are here based on position eligibility, but if I’m drafting either of them, you can bet it’s for my catcher position.  LaRoche and Cuddyer are decent options for 20+ HR power and an ok batting average and Loney has the average and RBI’s, but not the power.  I’m curious to see what the comeback trail brings for Carlos Lee (likely a better OF option) and Derrek Lee.  Carlos needs to shake off that batting average issue from last season and Derrek makes the move from Wrigley to Camden Yards.  Should be an interesting transition to watch.

     I like the upstarts here in Lind, Sanchez and Davis.  Lind has already shown the power capabilities while Sanchez and Davis are just getting going.  All three should finde themselves in the 20-25 HR range and we’ll likely see batting averages right around .270.  I prefer to have these guys as my corner infielders, but you could do worse if you’re waiting on first basemen.

5th Tier and Beyond:  Garrett Jones, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Logan Morrison, Freddie Freeman, Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak, Dan Johnson, Brett Wallace

     These are just some of the names you’ll see adorning fantasy rosters in deeper mixed leagues as well as the mid-sized AL/NL only leagues.  It’s a nice mix of youthful potential – Morrison, Freeman, Smoak, Wallace – older players with somethjing left in the tank – Berkman, Pena, and a few also rans that could be decent late round sleepers – Jones, Johnson, Moreland.  The beauty of first base is that there’s plenty of depth, so feel free to check the rankings and go even lower for some corner infield help.

Second Basemen

1st Tier:  Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia

     Pretty simple top tier to pick here as all three would be a fantastic, albeit expensive, option for you at second base.  Cano has great power and a fantastic batting average; the only thing he doesn’t do is steal bases, but I think we can all live with that so long as the power production is maintained.  Injuries slowed down Chutley (yes, that’s right….Chutley) and while you hear some rumblings about a decline, he is still a HUGE fantasy asset when healthy.

      Pedroia moves up to the top tier for me this year for a few reasons.  First of all, after a huge year back in 2008 and my skepticism of a repeat performance, Pedroia came through with a solid season in ‘09.  His power dipped a shade under .300, but he still plugged 15 dingers while scoring 115 runs and swiping 20 bases.  Last year, he looked to be headed towards super-stardom before a broken foot derailed his season.  Still, his .288-12-41 in 302 AB was better than some of the lower tiered guys with a full season under their belts.  With Pedroia staying in the 2 hole in front of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, there’s no telling what he could do.  I still think he’s an a-hole as a person, but this is fantasy and fantasy is business.  Even I would be happy to have him on my roster.

2nd Tier:  Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Martin Prado

     Overall, the second tier doesn’t fall far off from the top top tier as there’s still a good amount of talent.  With a full year of health, I like Kinsler to fall somewhere in between his ‘08 and ‘09 totals which would put him in the .290 range for average and 20-25 HR.  His lineup is stacked around him, so injury appears to be the only thing hindering his totals.  And speaking of injury, hello Rickie Weeks.  Last year was a great display of what he can do when he stays off the DL, so a repeat performance would be nice and tasty.  If he can do it again and maybe increase the BA and the steals total, he just might join the others in the top tier.

     Uggla remains one of the top offensive options at the position and his move to Atlanta should only help him maintain his triple digit output in RBI.  He’ll be a top tier option if he can keep that batting average up again, but like Weeks and the injuries, I need to see it atleast one more time.  Uggla’s arrival in Atlanta pushes Prado to left field, but he still retains his eligibility at the position for this season.  He has certainly proven himself to be a solid commodity capable of 15 HR and a .300 average which is delish at second base.  Not to mention the added eligibility in th eoutfield, as well as the impending 3B eligibility once ol’ man Chipper tweaks one body part or another. 

     And finally, there’s Phillips who lost ended his three year 20-20 minimum streak with an 18-16 2010.  I see a return to form this season as he hits leadoff in the ever-improving Reds lineup.  He won’t head back to his 30-30 ways of 2007, but let’s not be too greedy here.

3rd Tier:  Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill, Kelly Johnson, Chone Figgins, Neil Walker, Gordon Beckham, Ben Zobrist

     Roberts just isn’t the elite option he once was, especially after last year’s injury debacle.  Between the back problems, the abdominal strain and th elate season concussion, he frustrated numerous owners who were banking on a strong year.  He claims to be in great shape now, so while you won’t see much in the way of power totals, he should still be able to swipe 30 bases and score 100 runs atop the Oriole’s improved offense.  

     Hill and Johnson were two players moving in opposite directions last season yet met somewhere in the middle as each plugged 26 HR.  Hill, who regressed from his monster 2009, should maintain his mid-20’s HR power and will hopefully improve that woeful batting average and Johnson should stay the course and continue to produce fairly well.  He’s only in this tier because why?  Right.  he needs to do it again before getting a bump.

     Figgins, Zobrist and Beckham are all in need of a rebound season and each one has the ability to do so.  Figgins needs to increase that BA and continue to steal bases to maintain his usefulness, Beckham needs to shake off his sophomore slump but is still capable of 15+ HR, and Zobrist needs a littl erebound to show that 2009 wasn’t a fluke.  I do love Zobrist for his position eligibility (10+ games at 1B, 2B and OF) and his 20+ steals potential.

     The wild card of the group is Walker who had a tremendous breakout last season.  A concussion in late June kept him out for a little while, but he still managed a dozen HR and a .296 avergae in 426 at bats.  If he’s for real, then I could see 15-20 HR with an average of about the same.  We’ll track his progress.

4th Tier:  Howie Kendrick, Mike Aviles, Ryan Theriot, Orlando Hudson, Freddy Sanchez, Sean Rodriguez, Eric Young, Jr., Omar Infante, Juan Uribe

     Now here’s where we see more of a mixed bag.  Kendrick was normally just an empty battign average as he contributed very little in the other categories.  However, he did kick in 14 steals with another 10 HR last year, but at the expense of his usual .290/.300 average.  Aviles has solid power potential if he gets regualr at bats, so we’ll have to see if he sticks as the new third sacker in K.C.  Hudson is on the decline, Sanchez needs to stay healthy, and while Uribe’s power was a treat, his batting average is cumbersome, at best.

     I like Theriot, who is the new SS for the Cardinals, but shoving him down to the 8th spot leaves me little hope for much in the way of productivity.  Infante’s second half as a starter in Atlanta gave the Marlins hope that he could be their regular starter at second but he has very modest power and minimal speed.  He is very durable though and can hit for a decent average.

     Rounding out the tier are two of my favorites in Rodriguez and Young.  Rodriguez had a hard time getting regular ABs last season which didn’t help his consistency, but he did show the power potential as he knocked out 6 HR during the spring which put him on everyone’s radar.  With Jason Bartlett now gone and Zobrist full time in the outfield, I think Rodriguez will settle in nicely and have a very productive season.  Young has amazing speed potential, but will have to beat out both Jose Lopez and Jonathan Herrera this spring to lock in the job.  I rank him inthis tier because I think he can do it and will be a great 1-2 punch with Dexter Fowler atop the Rockies lineup.

5th Tier and beyond:  Ty Wigginton, Reid Brignac, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Blake DeWitt, Mark Ellis, Danny Espinosa, Jason Donald, Bill Hall, Skip Schumaker, Clint Barmes, Maicer Izturis

     A mix of unproven talent and utility players who may or may not get full time at bats.  Wigginton always seems to find a way into a lineup is a decent power guy with multi-position eligibility, DeWitt, Barmes, and Hall are starting again after finiding themselves in utility positions, and Nishioka, Espinosa and the oft-injured/sick Brignac all have some upside, but need to show something this year.  As for the others…..meh.  Serviceable if you’re stuck fishing near the bottom of the barrel.

Third Basemen

1st Tier: Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Rodriguez

     Even after a down year, Longoria remains an elite third baseman.  Besides, even for a down year, his numbers ranked pretty well amongst third sackers.  His power dropped a bit, but the average went up and he cranked out 15 steals to boot.  Remember, he’s only 25, so the best is yet to come.  Same thing for Zimmerman who was in and out of the lineup with injuries last season.  Small power decline, increased average, and just 26 years old.  These two should be in this tier for quite some time.

     A solid rebound for Wright last season and he did it without much help or protection from the injury-riddle Mets.  His power has returned, the stolen bases are back and the average should follow.  I expect continued improvement with a hopefully healthy group of hitters around him this season.

     And as for A-Rod, say what you want…in decline, pretty boy, self-centered, the only guy who can make getting fed popcorn by Cameron Diaz look creepy, whatever.  He hasn’t played in more than 140 games in each of the last 3 seasons, yet he still bangs 30 HR and 100+ RBI.  His average is still better than most, and so what if he doesn’t steal many bases?  I’ll still be happy drafting him. 

2nd Tier:  Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista, Pablo Sandoval, Casey McGehee

     I thought about combining this tier with the one below, but each of these guys separate themselves from the rest for specific reasons.  Should be interesting to see what Beltre does in the post-contract signing year, but come on…that lineup, that ballpark?  Much different situation than it was with Seattle.

     Love the work Bautista put in last year and the strides he’s made working with Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy.  He just needs to bring that average up a bit and show me one more year of 30+ HR before I boost him to the top tier.  I think it’s coming.

     We all saw what Sandoval was capable of back in 2009, and I’m banking on a return to form.  His work with Greg Oliver has put him into phenomenal shape and his work with Barry Bonds on pitch selection can only make him better.  Here’s hoping the power stays with him despite the weight loss and he’s learned to lay off the chest high fastball.

     McGehee is actually a bit of a favorite of mine.  I grabbed him as a free agent back in 2009 and targeted him in my draft last season.  He did not disappoint.  He got off to a nice hot start, swooned a bit in June and July, but crushed the ball again in August and finished the season strong.  The so-called experts kept telling you (and me) to sell him, but his August alone helped get me a bye week in my head to head playoffs and he was an integral part of that championship team.

3rd Tier:  Aramis Ramirez, Martin Prado, Pedro Alvarez, Mark Reynolds

     Ramirez is always high risk/high reward and there are plenty of other third sackers I would rather take a chance on than him.  His numbers are solid, but the injuries are just too frustrating for me.  if he stays relatively healthy, then he’s second tier material for sure, but I just don’t like the risk.

     Speaking of risk, I was all set to start targeting Alvarez this year, but reports of a poor work ethic and an increased waistline are making me nervous.  But after his debut last season and the fact that he’s hit for decent power in the minors gives me some hope for 220-25 HR.  Let’s just see how much powdered sugar he’s got on hi suniform before we invest.

     Prado is a much better play at second base in fantasy, but if you’re looking for someone safe at third, he’s a decent choice.  High average, mid-level pop and he’s playing the outfield until Chipper goes down.  Someone who’s not such a safe pick would be Reynolds, in my opinion.  The power production is hard to ignore, but the strikeouts and BA are downright awful.  I’m sure there’s going to be an adjustment period to AL pitching, but Camden Yards is still a launching pad.  Draft with caution.

4th Tier:  Ian Stewart, Chase Headley, Miguel Tejada, Chris Johnson, Scott Rolen, Placido Polanco, Michael Young, Edwin Encarnacion

     An intersting group here in the 4th Tier.  My favorite of the group is rising star Johnson.  He showed some real maturity last year afte rhis demotion and continued to hit well when he got brought back up.  He should post a solid average this season and Minute Maid Park coul dhelp him reach the 20 HR mark.

     Young would obviously move up the rankings if he gets traded, especially to Colorado, but that would then knock Stewart down a few places as well.  Polanco is  great for batting average with minimal pop, Headley and Tejada fall just ahead of him in power but behind in average, and the jury’s still out on whether or not Rolen can repeat last year’s resurgence.

     My wild card here is Encarnacion who has been a chronic disappointment over th eyears.  Still, as the full time DH in Toronto, he could do very well for himself and his owners.  We’ll just have to wait and see on that one. 

5th Tier:  David Freese, Omar Infante, Jhonny Peralta, Juan Uribe, Danny Valencia, Casey Blake, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chipper Jones

     If I’m grabbing anyone from this group, it’s strictly for a corner infield spot or bench material right now.  You know exactly what you’re getting from guys like Peralta, Uribe, and Blake.  Valencia could be a nice late round pickup if he can build on last season’s success.  We’ll have to wait and see what happens with Freese’s ankles as the spring progresses and Infnate is a much better play at second base.

     As for Kouzmanoff, he’s could be a decent late round sleeper if he ever gets his power back.  Very tough considering he went from San Diego to Oakland and gets plenty of road games in Angel Stadium and Safeco Field.  And what can I say about Chipper that hasn’t already been said?  Maybe if a report comes out that his legs have been replaced by bionics, then there’s hope for a full season, but alas, that’s not happening.  Great when healthy, but those moments are mucher fewer and far between these days.

6th Tier and beyond:  Maicer Izturis, Brent Morel, Mike Moustakas, Melvin Mora, Brandon Inge, Alberto Callaspo, Ty Wigginton

     This is really fishing in the bottom of the barrel here.  I like the upside of Moustakas so I would consider targeting him late.  Morel could be a late round sleeper, although with Mark Teahen still in th emix in Chicago, it’s hard to say at this point.  Everyone else is…..well…..everyone else.

Shortstops

1st Tier:  Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes

     Pretty much a no brainer to pick this tier, although some would question Reyes’ inclusion.  However, I’m leaving him up here because I see a rebound year in his future as he should be a healthy camper.  Decent pop and game-breaking speed leave him as a top option in my book.  The other two are easy to pick, despite Hanley’s down season last year.  I think the managerial change was good for him, as evidenced by his outstanding August (.359-6-13 with 7 SB) and he should, with his new attitude, return to top form.  And as for Tulo, what needs to be said?  So lo ng as he stays healthy, he will be an outstanding run producer for the Rox.

2nd Tier:  Alexei Ramirez, Stephen Drew, Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, Elvis Andrus, Rafael Furcal

     Players on the rise and players in decline is what we’ve got here in the second tier.  Rollins, Furcal, and Jeter have dropped in their usual levels of production and if they don’t mount comebacks, could find themselves droppin glower next year.  Still though, I have a feeling that Jeter will rebound this season, although not to the levels to which his owners have grown accustomed.  J-Roll and Furcal need to stay healthy if they’re  going to bounce back, but all three guys could still be solid options at this incredibly shallow position.

     Ramirez has shown solid growth and could be on his way to a 20-15 season if everything falls into place finally.  If he stays in the 2 hole of that White Sox lineup, this could just be that year.  Andrus is also on the verge of a breakout season after last year’s playoff run to follow up a decent season.  He’s got no power, but his 32 steals gives owners hope that there’s more to come.  He did have a solid OBP so I think that .265 average will make a significant climb this season. 

3rd Tier:  Starlin Castro, Yunel Escobar, Ian Desmond, Miguel Tejada, Asdrubal Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, Ryan Theriot, Mike Aviles, Alcides Escobar, J.J. Hardy, Jason Bartlett

     And the dropoff begins.  I suppose, when you read the next tier, that you could do worse, but there are plenty of what-ifs going on here.  Scutaro and Tejada are the veterans of the crew and both could have decent years, although nothing that I’m reaching for, by any means.  Theriot and Aviles are both a little more attractive here due to the fac tthat short is thinner than second, and Cabrera needs a rebound from an injury plagued 2010.

     I was never a big Bartlett fan to begin with and doubted his 2009 totals, only to be proven right last season.  Blame what you want on his injury, but I don’t see him doin gmuch better this season.  Good for some SBs?  Sure, but not much else.  I might be reaching a bit with Yunel Escobar, but I’m willing to give him a second chance after getting kicked in the ‘nads by him in 2010.  Hopefully he’s got the attitude in check and a full year in Toronto can bring him back to the potential we all once saw.

     We all know about Castro and his upside, and plenty of people will pay handsomely for it.  My concern is that he becomes the new Howie Kendrick and you end up paying for batting average and not much else.  He’s got no power and he’s shown very minimal base stealing skills in the minors.  Still, he’s only 20 years old, so, for me, he’s a wait and see kind of guy.  Personally, I’d rather take the chance and go cheaper on Desmond or Alcides Escobar.  I think Alcides has much better stolen base potential and he’ll get overlooked by many now that he’s with the Royals.  Desmond is right in the middle as he’s got more power than Escobar but not as much speed.  Both, I think, can be had for cheap and may pay decent dividends worth more than just third tier value.

4th Tier:  Erick Aybar, Alex Gonzalez, Cliff Pennington, Reid Brignac, Juan Uribe, Jhonny Peralta, Yuniesky Betancourt, Clint Barmes

     For power, you’ve got Uribe and Peralta, but you’re going to have to sacrifice batting average for sure.  You might think the same about Gonzalez, but don’t be fooled by his year end totlas.  17 of his 23 HR were back in toronto after a very hot start and he cooled down significantly once he landed in Atlanta.  Pennington has a little bit of a speed upside, but nothing I’d be freaking out about, and you know what you’re getting from barmes and Aybar.  The sleepers here are Brignac and Betancourt.  Betancourt has shown flashes of pop and a little bit of speed as well.  I think the Brewers and  hitter friendly Miller Park might be a nice change for him.  Brignac has always been a highly touted guy who’s had serious health problems.  Maybe this year, now that he’s got the job to himself, could be the one.

5th Tier and beyond:  Paul Janish, Jason Donald, Ronny Cedeno, Brendan Ryan, Alexei Casilla, Orlando Cabrera, Felipe Lopez

     Just a few names out there with mildly intriguing situations.  Janish has the inside edge on the job, but recently signed Orlando Cabrera could steal time from him.  Jason Donald qualifies here but will be battling Luis Valbuena for the second base job.  Cedeno has the job in Pittsburgh, but he doesn’t offer much in the way of fantasy production.  Same goes for Casilla in Minnesota.  And the rest…..well they’re the rest

Outfielders

1st Tier:  Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp

     Fantasy deliciousness up here, but not without a few caveats.  Braun, CarGo and Crawford will all probably go in the first round, but the only one I’m man-crushing on of the three is Braun.  He’s been super consistent and will continue to be a top producer at his position.  CarGo’s 2010 was absolutely outstanding, but I’m still concerned about his splits.  I know he signed a fat deal to stay in Colorado, but if he doesn’t start producing on the road, his probable regression this year could mark where he’ll remain, numbers-wise.  And as for Crawford, well, allow me to divert you back to a piece I wrote on him back in late January.

     For some reason Holliday doesn’t get the press he deserves, which is actually ok by me.  I love it when people sleep on a talent like this.  The latest ADP Rankings at MockDraftCentral.com have him as a second, sometimes third, rounder depending on the size of the league, so apparently you don’t have to sweat that potential .310-30-100 line in the first round.  Hamilton continues to produce at high levels, so long as he stays healthy, which is always a concern with him.  personally I feel safer with Holliday, but maybe that’s just me.

     Kemp took a significant drop last season in every category save for HR.  His strikeouts increased, his SB% dropped and his average ended up in the toilet.  So why do I have him in the top tier?  Well, he’s only 26 and there’s more to come in the power department and Joe Torre is gone which, as you saw late last season, helped his play and confidence.  Then there’s a little piece I did last year about 26 being the new 27.  I see a big year from him.

2nd Tier:  Justin Upton, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Ichiro Suzuki, Alex Rios, Andrew McCutchen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Nelson Cruz

     Power and speed, that’s what this tier is all about.  Upton, Choo, Pence, Rios, McCutchen and Cruz all have both qualities and make them some of the most valuable commodities in the fantasy game today.  I see Choo, Pence and Rios towing the line and putting up numbers consistent with what they gave last season, while I see Upton and McCutchen taking their games up a notch.  Upton signed a fat deal last year and has been the subject of numerous trade rumors.  He’ll continue to produce at high levels in Arizona, but if he lands with a contender with a stronger lineup around hi, watch out!  McCutchen finally has some hitters around him and has progressed nicely in his first 2 seasons.  This should be the year he puts it all together and gives you a 20-30 seasons, I think.

     Ellsbury and Ichiro are stolen base kings and great for runs scored.  Ichiro’s batting average does wonders for your team, especially if you then invest in a high power/low average guy like Adam Dunn.  Ellsbury doesn’t have the average Ichiro has, but he’ll steal more bases and the runs scored in that Boston lineup could be crazy.

     And then there’s Cruz.  I’ve actually always been a big fan of his, but the injuries are a big risk.  He’ll continue to hit for power, but I wouldn’t expect much in the speed department anymore.  I think his hamstring troubles last season will prevent him from getting the green light on the bases this season.

3rd Tier:  Jayson Werth, Andre Ethier, Delmon Young, Corey Hart, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Chris Young, Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Shane Victorino, Jason Heyward, Jose Bautista

     Some solid talent here, but obviously no one is as much of a lock as the top two tiers.  I do not like Werth’s move to Washington and feel a major regression coming on as I wrote last month.  Ethier was on his way to a great year last year but got hurt.  I think he’ll still hit well, but my concern is that the window of opportunity may have passed.  It could be that 2009 was his ceiling, and while those totals are great, I don’t think you can expect much more.

     Chris Young needs to bring his average up, Delmon needs to show it to me again before I believe, Hart had a major comeback but lost the stolen bases, Jones and Markakis can be so much better with a little consistency, and Victorino remains just a solid option.

     This could be the year that both Bruce and Rasmus break out, so both should be considered solid power threats.  I’ve been a fan of both of them since their rookie campaigns, but it looks like it’s going to be more difficult to acquire them for the cheap prices I had paid in the past.  Bautista is a much better option at third, and Heyward is still one of the hottest commodities in keeper leagues.  Expect more growth from him this year and don’t let him go.

4th Tier:  Aubrey Huff, Denard Span, Drew Stubbs, Jason Bay, Torii Hunter, Austin Jackson, Bobby Abreu, Curtis Granderson, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher, Rajai Davis, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Quentin, Michael Stanton, Brett Gardner, Michael Cuddyer, Jose Tabata, Jason Kubel, Juan Pierre

     There’s a big mix of players on the rise and salty veterans who used to find themselves in some of the higher tiers in the past.  Some old reliables that I still like to have on my roster include Abreu, Hunter, Cuddyer, Huff and Swisher.  You can look at their numbers and see what they’ve done in the past year or two and get a solid idea as to what their production will be like for you.  They’re all fairly consistent options although Swisher’s BA could be something to watch despite last year’s increase.

     You’ve got some decent burners in Bourn, Pierre, Gardner and Davis and all three should, not only put up great steals totals, but are much cheaper options than Ellsbury.  Careful with Davis though as he was a much better option before the Blue Jays signed Scott Podsednik.

     Solid guys who still have something to prove, whether it’s inconsistency, injury issues, or just need to prove themselves a second time around include Bay, Beltran, Pagan, Quentin, Lee, Span, Sizemore, Kubel and Granderson.  They can be solid outfield options as your 3rd or 4th guy, but some improvement in still needed.

     Then you’ve got your up and comers who I think will take their games to the next level this season.  Tabata and Stubbs will blossom into great power/speed combo players, potential 20-20 guys down the road, and Stanton is just going to rake.  Right now, he’s the poor man’s Adam Dunn, although you still might need to spend a few bucks more given his age and potential.  I could easily see him crushing 30+ HR this year.

5th Tier:  Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Cody Ross, Ben Zobrist, Chris Coghlan, Franklin Gutierrez, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Raburn, Andres Torres, Marlon Byrd, Coco Crisp, Garrett Jones, Julio Borbon, Lance Berkman, Tyler Colvin, David DeJesus, Dexter Fowler, Josh Willingham, Will Venable, Magglio Ordonez, Travis Snider

     Definitely a mixed bag here, but guys who will adorn rosters as 4th, 5th and 6th outfielders in most 15 team mixed leagues and plenty of AL/NL only leagues.  Just to highlight a few:  I like Snider’s power in Toronto and think he’ll so well with consistent at bats, Gutierrez could spring to the next tier with a little more power and a better average, Raburn could surprise people if he gets the regular playing time, and Berkman should be an interesting watch in St. Louis.  He’s got a solid lineup around him, but playing the field regularly could be a problem.    Also, if Fowler is consistently in the lineup, he could put up crazy stolen bases with some pop that most of the other burners lack.  I like him as a sleeper this year.

6th Tier and beyond:  David Murphy, Raul Ibanez, J.D. Drew, Logan Morrison, Ryan Ludwick, Domonic Brown, Carlos Gomez, Jeff Francoeur, Scott Podsednik, Jonny Gomes, Mitch Moreland, Omar Infante, Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, Juan Rivera, Michael Brantley, Desmond Jennings, Cameron Maybin, Kyle Blanks

     Everyone knows the hype on Brown, so he will obviously cost more than the rest of these guys in the tier.  Probably the same goes for Jennings, unless of course, people get scared off with the additions of Damon And Ramirez to the Rays.  I like Morrison as a cheap option for mid-level power and I’m really hoping that Gomez’ winter league play translates to the bigs this year.  if it doesn’t, then he’s a great sleeper in Milwaukee.  Cameron Maybin moves onto his third team now, and I’m just not sure about the outlook just yet.  Need to see some spring at bats before I go after the once-hyped 5 tool threat.  So far he’s been no sizzle and far too much fizzle.  Fo shizzle.

     Honorable mentions to Ben Francisco and Seth Smith.  Francisco could end up a great late round sleeper if Domonic Brown flops and Smith always seems to work himself into the lineup in Colorado and contribute with some streaky power.  Also a nod to Lorenzo Cain who only has Melky Cabrera standing in his way.

Designated Hitters

1st Tier:  David Ortiz, Adam Lind

     Despite Ortiz’ lack of position flexibility, I  can’t help but keep him here in the top tier, especially with last season’s surge and the Red Sox new and improved lineup.  While I think Ortiz will probably go 30-100 again, I’d be hard-pressed to guarantee him keeping his average even at the .270 mark from 2010.  As for Lind, who will actually be playing first base this season for the Jays, I see a solid rebound for him.  He was definitely pressing at the plate last season trying to duplicate that 35 HR performance from 2009 as evidenced by that 25.3 K% spike, and I think he’ll be a little more relaxed this season.  30 HR barrier again?  Possibly, but probably not. Close though.       

2nd Tier:  Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, Luke Scott

     Each guy but Thome here qualifies in the outfield still, so technically you’re not locked into any of them at the DH slot.   Guerrero would be in the top tier but I’m a little concerned about his at bats.  He and Scott will share DH responsibilities but that could change if Felix Pie is a bust in left field.  If he is, or if he gets hurt again (a strong possibility), then Scott should move back into the outfield and both could end up as solid options.  Scott’s batting average is always an issue though.

     Thome remains the left handed bat of a platoon in Minnesota and is no longer a lock for even 350 at bats in a season.  He’ll still pop close to 20 HR, but he’s got no position flexibility and will probably hit somewhere in the .240′s.  Matsui, who once was a pretty good lock for 20-25 HR might not be there this year with the move to Oakland.  His power dropped last year with the Angels and will probably drop even more now that his home games are played in a stadium that he’s only got 1 HR over his last 50 at bats.

3rd Tier and beyond:  Jack Cust, Travis Hafner

     Last resorts?  Maybe a fill-in for your lineup every now and then?  I can think of plenty of other guys I’d take a chance on over draftin geither of these guys.  Hafner hasn’t sniffed 20 HR since 2007 and Cust is a low average, strikeout king whose streaks are coming fewer and more far between.  Anyone that I missed here is probably not even worth mentioning, let alone drafting.

Starting Pitchers

1st Tier:  Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee

     Everything you could possiblywant in a starting pitcher and anchor for your fantasy rotation.  Halladay is just a beast and the top gun out there.  He’s got it all — wins, K’s, great ratios and he’s done it year in and year out.  Super consistent and always worth the price you have to pay.

     King Felix is getting better and better but will fall short for you in the wins department.  Sure, the category is as arbitrary as it gets, but most leagues still use it, so while he’ll have great ratios and K’s, the Mariners will screw you in that department.  Sabathia, on the other hand, has the Yankees offense backing him and will get you where you need to be, but he has fallen a little in the strikeout department.

     Lee, back in the NL again and pitching for the Phillies, should pack a mean punch for you this season.  His numbers from his half year and post-season with the Phils was outstanding and expectations are high.  He’s never posted a 200 K season, but how many guys can say they’ve walked only 18 batters in 212+ innings?  The guy is a WHIP machine.

     Wainwright has done amazing things with his career since being converted from a reliever, including 39 wins, 425 Ks, roughly a 2.50 ERA and a WHIP just above 1.10 in his last 2 seasons.  Last season’s 5 complete games and 2 shutouts are always a nice bonus.

     And then there’s Timmy.  I’ve been doing a little extra research on him lately due to my work on SF Giants Report, and have mixed feelings about him.  After 2 Cy Youngs in his first 2 years, he had a serious regression last season as he declined in virtually every category.  His K’s were down, his ERA and WHIP were up and he gave up more HR in a season than he had ever done before.  He threw almost 250 innings between the regular season and the playoffs and apparently increased his off season throwing as well.  He’s headed back to the arbitration table again at season’s end and there’s a chance he tries to push himself too much.  It’s a tough call to make, because I think he’s fantastic, but there are little signs here and there that are making me worry a little.  For a little more in-depth coverage on my concerns, check out this article and if you want to see something that REALLY pissed off the Giants community, check out this one!          

2nd Tier:  Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, Jered Weaver, Clayton Kershaw, Roy Oswalt, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, David Price

     More fantastic starters here in the second tier and the line between these guys and some of the one’s just discussed is pretty damn thin.  We’ve seen some speed bumps in the careers of these, which is, I suppose why I have them here, but I’d be more than happy to have any of these guys on my roster as they will undoubdtedly cost you less than the guys from Tier 1 and can put up stats just as tasty. 

     Johnson, Price and Kershaw are major stars on the rise.  Keeper leaguers will probably be forced in paying more than maybe they should.  Jimenez, Cain, Weaver, and Lester have really come into their own and can anchor a staff very nicely.  Carpenter, Oswalt and Verlander have been doing it for a little longer and are rock solid choices, and I think Hamels is going to significantly benefit from the experience of the guys he will be pitching alongside.  Not only will he learn to be a better pitcher from them, but the pressure will be significantly less as he’s now the 4th starter in that group. 

3rd Tier:  Clay Buchholz, Zack Greinke, Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Francisco Liriano, Trevor Cahill, Jonathan Sanchez, Ted Lilly, Yovani Gallardo, Javier Vazquez

     For me, the separation between this tier and Tier 2 is much greater than the difference between the first two groups.  This is where some of the question marks come in and the speed bumps we’ve seen have a little more impact on my opinions.  Take Buchholz for example.  Phenomenal year last season, absolutely phenomenal.  But he had a significant increase in innings pitched, throws in a monster division and likely won’t hit the ratios he saw last year.  I worry that he’ll tire out quicker which should put his ratios, maybe, a little closer to his curren t3 year averag totals.

      Latos and Cahill both have big shoes to fill in comparison to last year’s numbers and as we saw Latos tire out last season, we could see more of that from both of them this year.  Just like Hanson, they are both on their way, but I need to see them do it again before they have my full confidence.

     Liriano and Gallardo can both post solid numbers, but the injury risks always make me hedge my bets with them.  Sanchez is a solid strikeout option but can let his emotions get the better of him as we saw in the playoffs last year.  Lilly is Lilly.  You know exactly what you’re getting with him.

      I think Greinke will start off the year in solid form.  He’ll have a fresh start in Milwaukee, get to attack the NL hitters and probably put up numbers closer to his Cy Young year.  However, if he doesn’t sign a long term deal and the Brewers start dangling his name in trade rumors, you coul dbe in for more of what we saw last year.  I actually did a series of write ups on this that you should check out if you’re targeting him.

     Then you’ve got Haren and Hudson, both of whom I like on some levels but still have serious reservations on others.  Haren is back in the AL full time, and while he’ll have more pitcher’s parks to play around in, the hitting will definitely be stronger.  Hudson’s year was outstanding, but with his age and rebuilt arm, I need to see it again before I’m convinced.

     Funny enough, my favorite in this tier is actually Vazquez.  We saw what he did two years ago in Atlanta and then the subsequent collapse in his return to New York.  I think we’ll get back to those Atlanta totals as he now calls the NL East and Sun Life Stadium his home.  I anticipate big Ks, and tasty low ratios here.       

4th Tier:  Shaun Marcum, Max Scherzer, Brett Myers, Brett Anderson, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, Bronson Arroyo, Jaime Garcia, Daniel Hudson, Johnny Cueto, Wandy Rodriguez

      Now we’re moving into more of a mixed bag.  It’s hard to go into detail about each and every guy, so I’ll do a little sum up.  Guys who I think are capable of building on last year’s success include Marcum, Scherzer, Gonzalez, and Garcia.  Marcum is my favorite of the lot.  Billingsley just needs to show me that 2009 was just a minor speed bump.  He had a solid campaign last year, so I’d just like to see if the consistency is truly there.

     Anderson needs to stay healthy, Beckett is in need of a fierce rebound, Arroyo is Arroyo, Danks is a solid option, and I hate Wandy.  Sure, his numbers looke dok last year, but 2009 was the peak and now we’re headed towards the valley.  Cueto, on the other hand, could be on the rise if he can continue the growth we’ve seen so far.

5th Tier:  Brandon Morrow, Ervin Santana Ricky Nolasco, Matt Garza, Jeremy Guthrie, Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Johan Santana, C.J. Wilson, Carlos Zambrano, Colby Lewis, Hiroki Kuroda, R.A. Dickey, Travis Wood, Ricky Romero

     Again, lots of players here so I’ll just pick a few highlights, and maybe a lowlight or two.  Gutrhie surprised plenty last year with his late season surge, but be carfeul, given the division and hitter-friendly Camden Yards.  I rode the Nolasco train last year and watched it derail in comparison to projections, but might still be willing to give him another shot at a lower cost now.

     I love Hughes and Romero and despite the rough and tough AL East, think they’ll both post solid campaigns.  Garza’s move to Wrigley concerns me, not sold on Lewis’ repeat but maybe Wilson’s, and Kennedy could be on the rise here.  Big Z is just too emotional for me to fiully trust, but that late season surge was nice.

6th Tier:  Jeremy Hellickson, Brian Matusz, Ryan Dempster, Scott Baker, Jhoulys Chacin, Gavin Floyd, Randy Wolf, Madison Bumgarner, Wade Davis, Brett Cecil, Carl Pavano, Tim Stauffer, Anibal Sanchez, Fausto Carmona

     Plenty of up and coming names here like Hellickson, Matusz, Chacin, Bumgarner and Davis, but be careful.  Aside from young pitchers with lofty expectations costing too much, there’s the innings pitched factor that tends to limit their production later in the year.  I’m always a fan of drafting these guys if I can get them cheap and trading them in early June if they’re performing well.

     You have a pretty good idea of wheat you’re getting from everyone else, but I’ll warn you off Carmona if he ends up getting traded to the Yankees.  That park and that division will destroy him.    

7th Tier:  Mark Buehrle, Jordan Zimmerman, Derek Lowe, Jorge de la Rosa, J.A. Happ, James McDonald, Mike Pelfrey, Dallas Braden, Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Lackey, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Niemann, Homer Bailey, Jon Garland

     This is where you start filling out the rest of your rotation for cheap and just pray that some of these guys can keep it together.  Consistency is not always their strong suit.  You do, however, have some young arms here that could end up paying strong dividends in the end if they can build on past success and keep a clear head such as Happ, Jurrjens and Niemann.

     Zimmerman should be an interesting watch as he returns from Tommy John surgery and I like McDonald as a quiet little sleeper in Pittsburgh.  You’ll never get the Braden who threw a perfect game ever again, but he still might be worth a late look.  Lackey could be a nice bargain if he can get the walks under control. 

8th Tier and beyond:  Brian Duensing, Edwin Jackson, Tommy Hunter, Mike Leake, Kevin Slowey, Edinson Volquez, Jason Vargas, Joel Pineiro, Jarrod Parker, James Shields, Barry Enright, A.J. Burnett, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard, Kyle Drabek, Randy Wells, Aaron Harang

     And here we go…..this is where the bargain shopping gets dicey.  It’s tough to pick from a lot like this and try to figure out who’s going to be productive and who’s going to cost you some serious pitching points with their in-season blow-ups.  But if you’re rolling the dice here, let me say that I like rebound seasons from Slowey, Shields and….don’t laugh….Harang.  I do not like Burnett and am skeptical on a full year of Jackson in Chicago.  Mixed feelings on Volquez, Leake, Enright and Norris but might try them for a buck.  Drabek is going to cost too much based on his prospect status.

Closers/Relief Pitchers

1st Tier:  Joakim Soria, Heath Bell, Brian Wilson, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Marmol

     Lock ‘em in, folks.  These should be, barring injury or trade, your top five targets for closers this season.  They have held th e job with their respective teams before and have little or no competition to overtake them.  There was plenty of talk about the Padres trading Bell, but the team seems to have backed off from the notion….for now.  I mean, it is the Padres.  Everyone else is dialed in and ready to go, although Wilson’s spring has gotten off to a rocky start with back stiffness.  Marmol’s K’s are a dream for fantasy owners, and for those concerned with Rivera’s status now that Rafael Soriano is around, rest assured, Mo is the man in the Bronx.  Bringing in Soriano adds insurance in the event of an injury, but what it does, more importantly, is guarantee that Mo won’t need to come in for mor ethan the standard one inning save.

2nd Tier:  Neftali Feliz, Jonathan Papelbon, Andrew Bailey, Francisco Rodriguez, Chris Perez

     The only reason Feliz is down this far is due to the fact that the team is stretching him out as a starter this spring and giving him an opportunity to make the rotation.  But if the Rangers do finally decide to keep Feliz in the pen, he’s top tier all the way.

     Papelbon remains a top option on a competitive team, but there’s been talk of the Red Sox trading him and going with Daniel Bard.  If Paps moves, he’ll undoubtedly close, but where he ends up is the question.  Perez did a solid job picking up where Kerry Wood left off and should be a solid option this year. 

     Bailey just needs to stay healthy and K-Rod needs to keep his head on straight.  If both happen, then both are going to be great options all year.

3rd Tier:  Jose Valverde, Francisco Cordero, John Axford, Brad Lidge, J.J. Putz, Huston Street, Jonathan Broxton, Ryan Franklin

     So everyone in this tier has been officially named their teams’ closer, but each has a cveat that should always be noted when considering in your draft.  Valverde was lights out in the first half but tired after the break, got hurt and fizzled out.  He returns this year, hopefully stronger and more prepared for a full year.  Coco Cordero always has his blow ups, so while he’s locked into the Reds pen, his ratios are never the most desirable.  He also has Aroldis Chapman in the pen causing Coco to steadily look over his shoulder.

     Putz hasn’t closed full time in a few seasons after a major injury, but had a great rebound year with the White Sox last year, Axford needs to prove himself some more before I fully endorse, and Lidge is…..well…..Lidge.  Broxton lost his job last year, but is being given every opportunity to reclaim the job this season, Street has chronic health issues, and Franklin hits a few bumps in the road here and there.  Another guy who will log saves but doesn’t always have the ratios you’d like in a closer.

4th Tier:  Frank Francisco, Joe Nathan, Drew Storen, Kevin Gregg, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, Leo Nunez, Craig Kimbrel, Matt Thornton, Joel Hanrahan

     Getting a little dicier down here, but still some decent options.  Storen and Kimbrel have the best upside here with Storen getting the edge since the Nats have named him their closer.  Kimbrel will share time with Johnny Venters to start probably but should win the job outright sooner than later.

     Francisco was named the Jays closer but has a pair of vultures in Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch lurking, Nathan is penciled in but is making his way back from ligament replacement surgery and may need some extra days off this season, and Gregg hasn’t been officially named the closer for Baltimore, but is the obvious choice.  Hanrahan has great K potential (100 in just under 70 IP last year) but has control issues and Evan Meek right behind him, Nunex lost his job last year but is getting another chance, and Lyon couldn’t beat out Matt Lindstrom for the job to start the year in 2010, but ended up coming up big in replacement in the 2nd half.

     Rodney has the job right now but had a seriously disappointing year last year.  Indicators such as K rate, walk rate and a high BABIP make me believe in him even less.  Still, the job is his to lose. 

     And then there’s Thornton.  Penciled in right now and could be a great option, if it wasn’t for Chris Sale being moved back into the bullpen this.  I wouldn’t draft on ewithout the other though.

5th Tier and beyond:  Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee, David Aardsma, Brandon League, Chris Sale, Matt Capps, Evan Meek, Clay Hensley, Hong-Chih Kuo, Johnny Venters, Luke Gregerson, Koji Uehara

     So Farnsworth and McGee will duke it out this spring with my money going on McGee.  Aardsma is still recovering from off season hip surgery and there is a strong chance he starts the season on the DL.  That would move League into th ecloser’s job which he’ll have this spring.  All the other guys are some of the top vultures in waiting and solid options if you like to use middle relievers on your roster.