Power, power and more power.  That’s what, in fantasy baseball, first base is all about.  Your big time mashers are housed here, and frankly, I’m a firm believer in the fact that, if you want to win, you need to make a solid investment in this position.  The majority of your fantasy success is found in a strong offense, so spending some bucks (or a high draft choice) on a guy who will plug you 30+ home runs is one of the wisest moves you will make in your draft.  There are plenty of people, both on the web and in fantasy baseball magazines, who will tell you that you can bulk up elsewhere and wait on a first baseman due of the depth at the position, but trust me…that is not the case.  Once you get past the first two tiers, the dropoff in overall production is significant enough that if you do wait on a first baseman, you better have a top 3 guy at almost every other position.  Here’s how I see the position shaping up this year…

First Basemen

1st Tier:  Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera

     I mean, really.  What more can I say about this group?  Hands down, some of the best fantasy baseball stats you’ll see in a season and well worth each and every penny, every first round draft choice, you spend to pick one of them up in your draft.  The first 4 are a lock for 35+ HR and 120+ RBI and each hits for a nice high average.  Miguel Cabrera sits on the bubble here for me, but gets the nod with the career .311 average and the hopes that he may have learned a little maturity after his late season binging habits cost the Tigers a spot in the playoffs. 

2nd Tier:  Adrian Gonzalez, Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Justin Morneau

     The guys that sit in this tier aren’t so far off from the ones above, especially considering all of them, save for Morneau and his cranky back, had equal or more HR than Cabrera, and both Adam Dunn and Kendry Morales had more RBI.  So what bumps them down a little?  Well, for starters, Adrian Gonzalez has no one hitting in front of him, so while the 40 HR are great, the sub-100 RBI totals are not.

     I’m actually a big fan of both Dunn and Morales, but good ol’ “country strong” Dunn has a career high of .267 in the batting average department, and Morales has had only one year of big time mashing.  But while Dunn should continue to produce at hs usual levels, I see Morales taking more steps to improve on his totals.  His debut season was an amazing success, he’s floating in that 26 to 27 year old range this year, he’s got a great power stroke and a lot of poise for a guy who was put in the awful position of trying to replace Mark Teixeira in Los Angles  I think this is a great example of the maturity that can help a late bloomer find success.

     Justin Morneau rounds out the rest of the group, and similarly to Cabrera, could very well have led off Tier 3 instead.  However, with 100+ RBI for 4 straight seasons, despite being shut down at the end of last year, he gets to stay in the upper class.  But Morneau is the cutoff point for me for big spending on a first baseman.  I think anyone in these top 2 tiers is worth the money and I believe you’ll find it much easier to build the rest of your team knowing that you’ve got immense power from this slot.        

3rd Tier:  Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee, Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, Pablo Sandoval, Paul Konerko, Kevin Youkilis, Lance Berkman, Victor Martinez

     So, the third tier has an interesting mix of players.  You’ve got some aging vets that still seem to have something left in the tank, some young up and comers, and then a mixture of guys you’d probably rather have elsewhere, sitting  in the middle.

     First off, let’s talk about what is probably the most noticable player in the tier and give you my thoughts.  I can just hear it now, “Mark Reynolds popped 44 HR last year, how can you drop him so low?“  Well, my answer is, “Easy.”  While Reynolds was a tremendous source of power in 2009, let’s talk about what’s holding him back.  First of all, the HR totals came from out of nowhere, so the guarantee of a repeat performance, based on his previous totals and minor league stats, is pretty low.  Next, there’s the strikeouts.  If you’re in a league, be it a rotisserie league or head to head league, and you’re penalized for striking out, then Reynolds HR totals are pretty much negated by his whiffs and low batting average.  And finally, if push comes to shove and I’m drafting Reynolds, I’m using him over at third where I feel he has more value.

     Similarly to Reynolds, Victor Martinez, Pablo Sandoval and Kevin Youkilis would suit you better at other positions.  You’re going to get decent totals out of all of them, but Youk and Sandoval (a.k.a Kung Fu Panda) are better options at the hot corner while Martinez is obviously a much better choice behind the dish.

     So that brings us to the aging veterans.  Derrek Lee stays up in the third tier with his 35 HR return to stardom last year.  I don’t necessarily know if he’ll produce at those levels again, but he’s certainly shown that the wrist issues are a thing of the past.  He may not equal 2009’s totals, but even a little less is still better than average for this group.  Carlos Pena doesn’t crack the 2nd tier due to his chronic injuries, and Paul Konerko and Lance Berkman, while still able to plug you 25+ HR, are on the downside of their careers.

     And rounding out the third tier is Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who I tink takes his game to the next level in 2010.  He’s put up nearly identical power numbers up in his first two full seasons but has improved in both batting average and OBP each year.  In fact, his .981 OPS last year was 4th best in the league just behind names like Pujols, Fielder and Mauer.  While  I don’t see him cracking the 40 HR barrier, totals in the low to mid 30’s are not out of his range.  If he can put it all together in his 3rd full season, he’ll find hi sway into the second tier in 2011.  Oh yeah, did I forget to tell you that he’s only 26?  Turns 27 in September.     

4th Tier:  Adam LaRoche, Russell Branyan, Nick Swisher, Billy Butler, Jorge Cantu, James Loney, Nick Johnson, Todd Helton, Chris Davis, Garrett Jones, Michael Cuddyer, Troy Glaus

     Now this is an interesting group stacked with mediocre vets and potential fantasy baseball sleepers.  Guys like Adam LaRoche, Nick Swisher, Todd Helton and Jorge Cantu are going to give you roughly the same totals they’ve been giving you over the last few years.  Solid, but not phenomenal for a first baseman.  None of them should cost you too much and you should get around 20 HR from each of them.  Michael Cuddyer is an ok possibility here, especially if you don’t need a lot of outfielders on your roster, and James Loney, who doesn’t have too much pop in his bat, still has a great average and gets solid RBI opportunities.

     Russell Branyan is down here because I just don’t believe in him.  And neither did the Mariners apparently, as they have opted to let him walk this year rather than get burned on hoping he’ll repeat his 31 HR performance in 2009.  In fact, no one really seems to believe him as he remains unsigned, so that should speak volumes to you.

     And then there’s the sleepers.  In my primary league, we start two guys at each position with 6 OF and 9 pitchers.  I’m pushing for Tier 1 and 2 guys for my main starter, but I’ll definitely be checking out bargains like Nick Johnson, Billy Butler, Chris Davis, Garrett Jones, and even Troy Glaus for my second guy.  Jones and Butler might cost a little more as their youth tends to imply bigger upside, but with people down on Johnson and Glaus because of their injury history and Davis because of his average and strikeouts, they may prove to be the better value picks in the end. 

5th Tier and beyond:  Matt LaPorta, Conor Jackson, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Delgado, Mark Teahen, Michael Aubrey, Hank Blalock, Aubrey Huff, Casey Kotchman, Daniel Murphy, Daric Barton

     The bottom of the barrell for first basemen, if you will.  Matt LaPorta has great upside but still might not be major league ready yet, Conor Jackson needs to prove that last year’s Valley Fever won’t deter his progress and development as a better hitter, Carlos Delgado ain’t no spring chicken and isn’t even signed, and Mark Teahen could be a great sleeper with the White Sox but is likely better for third base or your outfield.  As for the others, it’s more tan likely to be a case of “you get what you pay for.”

Potential Position Battles

Logan Morrison vs. Gaby Sanchez, FLA — Morrison might have been a nice call-up last year, but the fractured wrist back in April put all of that on hold.  He’s got great power potential but he may need another year of Triple-A to really get going.  Sanchez was given a shot at the position last spring, but the club felt he had more work to do in the minors.  Most fantasy baseball projections don’t put his power too high but he seems to have hit for a decent average in the minors.  I see him fitting more of a James Loney profile, and for that, I feel that Morrison could end up with the job with a hot spring.

Steven Pearce vs Jeff Clement, PIT — Neither guy has done much in his time spent in the majors ove rthe last couple of years, so the Pirates will likely go with whoever is swinging the bigger bat come the end of spring.  The team has been looking for a reason to keep Pearce up with the big club, but he hasn’t given them much to plead his case.  I like Pearce’s potential more, but if he doesn’t put it together this spring, we’re going to be seeing a lot of Clement over here, yet another player who qualifies at a different position (catcher);  one in which he is much better suited for fantasy purposes.

Power, power and more power.  That’s what, in fantasy baseball, first base is all about.  Your big time mashers are housed here, and frankly, I’m a firm believer in the fact that, if you want to win, you need to make a solid investment in this position.  The majority of your fantasy success is found in a strong offense, so spending some bucks (or a high draft choice) on a guy who will plug you 30+ home runs is one of the wisest moves you will make in your draft.  There are plenty of people, both on the web and in fantasy baseball magazines, who will tell you that you can bulk up elsewhere and wait on a first baseman due of the depth at the position, but trust me…that is not the case.  Once you get past the first two tiers, the dropoff in overall production is significant enough that if you do wait on a first baseman, you better have a top 3 guy at almost every other position.  Here’s how I see the position shaping up this year…

First Basemen

1st Tier:  Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera

     I mean, really.  What more can I say about this group?  Hands down, some of the best fantasy baseball stats you’ll see in a season and well worth each and every penny, every first round draft choice, you spend to pick one of them up in your draft.  The first 4 are a lock for 35+ HR and 120+ RBI and each hits for a nice high average.  Miguel Cabrera sits on the bubble here for me, but gets the nod with the career .311 average and the hopes that he may have learned a little maturity after his late season binging habits cost the Tigers a spot in the playoffs. 

2nd Tier:  Adrian Gonzalez, Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Justin Morneau

     The guys that sit in this tier aren’t so far off from the ones above, especially considering all of them, save for Morneau and his cranky back, had equal or more HR than Cabrera, and both Adam Dunn and Kendry Morales had more RBI.  So what bumps them down a little?  Well, for starters, Adrian Gonzalez has no one hitting in front of him, so while the 40 HR are great, the sub-100 RBI totals are not.

     I’m actually a big fan of both Dunn and Morales, but good ol’ “country strong” Dunn has a career high of .267 in the batting average department, and Morales has had only one year of big time mashing.  But while Dunn should continue to produce at hs usual levels, I see Morales taking more steps to improve on his totals.  His debut season was an amazing success, he’s floating in that 26 to 27 year old range this year, he’s got a great power stroke and a lot of poise for a guy who was put in the awful position of trying to replace Mark Teixeira in Los Angles  I think this is a great example of the maturity that can help a late bloomer find success.

     Justin Morneau rounds out the rest of the group, and similarly to Cabrera, could very well have led off Tier 3 instead.  However, with 100+ RBI for 4 straight seasons, despite being shut down at the end of last year, he gets to stay in the upper class.  But Morneau is the cutoff point for me for big spending on a first baseman.  I think anyone in these top 2 tiers is worth the money and I believe you’ll find it much easier to build the rest of your team knowing that you’ve got immense power from this slot.        

3rd Tier:  Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee, Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, Pablo Sandoval, Paul Konerko, Kevin Youkilis, Lance Berkman, Victor Martinez

     So, the third tier has an interesting mix of players.  You’ve got some aging vets that still seem to have something left in the tank, some young up and comers, and then a mixture of guys you’d probably rather have elsewhere, sitting  in the middle.

     First off, let’s talk about what is probably the most noticable player in the tier and give you my thoughts.  I can just hear it now, “Mark Reynolds popped 44 HR last year, how can you drop him so low?“  Well, my answer is, “Easy.”  While Reynolds was a tremendous source of power in 2009, let’s talk about what’s holding him back.  First of all, the HR totals came from out of nowhere, so the guarantee of a repeat performance, based on his previous totals and minor league stats, is pretty low.  Next, there’s the strikeouts.  If you’re in a league, be it a rotisserie league or head to head league, and you’re penalized for striking out, then Reynolds HR totals are pretty much negated by his whiffs and low batting average.  And finally, if push comes to shove and I’m drafting Reynolds, I’m using him over at third where I feel he has more value.

     Similarly to Reynolds, Victor Martinez, Pablo Sandoval and Kevin Youkilis would suit you better at other positions.  You’re going to get decent totals out of all of them, but Youk and Sandoval (a.k.a Kung Fu Panda) are better options at the hot corner while Martinez is obviously a much better choice behind the dish.

     So that brings us to the aging veterans.  Derrek Lee stays up in the third tier with his 35 HR return to stardom last year.  I don’t necessarily know if he’ll produce at those levels again, but he’s certainly shown that the wrist issues are a thing of the past.  He may not equal 2009’s totals, but even a little less is still better than average for this group.  Carlos Pena doesn’t crack the 2nd tier due to his chronic injuries, and Paul Konerko and Lance Berkman, while still able to plug you 25+ HR, are on the downside of their careers.

     And rounding out the third tier is Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who I tink takes his game to the next level in 2010.  He’s put up nearly identical power numbers up in his first two full seasons but has improved in both batting average and OBP each year.  In fact, his .981 OPS last year was 4th best in the league just behind names like Pujols, Fielder and Mauer.  While  I don’t see him cracking the 40 HR barrier, totals in the low to mid 30’s are not out of his range.  If he can put it all together in his 3rd full season, he’ll find hi sway into the second tier in 2011.  Oh yeah, did I forget to tell you that he’s only 26?  Turns 27 in September.     

4th Tier:  Adam LaRoche, Russell Branyan, Nick Swisher, Billy Butler, Jorge Cantu, James Loney, Nick Johnson, Todd Helton, Chris Davis, Garrett Jones, Michael Cuddyer, Troy Glaus

     Now this is an interesting group stacked with mediocre vets and potential fantasy baseball sleepers.  Guys like Adam LaRoche, Nick Swisher, Todd Helton and Jorge Cantu are going to give you roughly the same totals they’ve been giving you over the last few years.  Solid, but not phenomenal for a first baseman.  None of them should cost you too much and you should get around 20 HR from each of them.  Michael Cuddyer is an ok possibility here, especially if you don’t need a lot of outfielders on your roster, and James Loney, who doesn’t have too much pop in his bat, still has a great average and gets solid RBI opportunities.

     Russell Branyan is down here because I just don’t believe in him.  And neither did the Mariners apparently, as they have opted to let him walk this year rather than get burned on hoping he’ll repeat his 31 HR performance in 2009.  In fact, no one really seems to believe him as he remains unsigned, so that should speak volumes to you.

     And then there’s the sleepers.  In my primary league, we start two guys at each position with 6 OF and 9 pitchers.  I’m pushing for Tier 1 and 2 guys for my main starter, but I’ll definitely be checking out bargains like Nick Johnson, Billy Butler, Chris Davis, Garrett Jones, and even Troy Glaus for my second guy.  Jones and Butler might cost a little more as their youth tends to imply bigger upside, but with people down on Johnson and Glaus because of their injury history and Davis because of his average and strikeouts, they may prove to be the better value picks in the end. 

5th Tier and beyond:  Matt LaPorta, Conor Jackson, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Delgado, Mark Teahen, Michael Aubrey, Hank Blalock, Aubrey Huff, Casey Kotchman, Daniel Murphy, Daric Barton

     The bottom of the barrell for first basemen, if you will.  Matt LaPorta has great upside but still might not be major league ready yet, Conor Jackson needs to prove that last year’s Valley Fever won’t deter his progress and development as a better hitter, Carlos Delgado ain’t no spring chicken and isn’t even signed, and Mark Teahen could be a great sleeper with the White Sox but is likely better for third base or your outfield.  As for the others, it’s more tan likely to be a case of “you get what you pay for.”

Potential Position Battles

Logan Morrison vs. Gaby Sanchez, FLA — Morrison might have been a nice call-up last year, but the fractured wrist back in April put all of that on hold.  He’s got great power potential but he may need another year of Triple-A to really get going.  Sanchez was given a shot at the position last spring, but the club felt he had more work to do in the minors.  Most fantasy baseball projections don’t put his power too high but he seems to have hit for a decent average in the minors.  I see him fitting more of a James Loney profile, and for that, I feel that Morrison could end up with the job with a hot spring.

Steven Pearce vs Jeff Clement, PIT — Neither guy has done much in his time spent in the majors ove rthe last couple of years, so the Pirates will likely go with whoever is swinging the bigger bat come the end of spring.  The team has been looking for a reason to keep Pearce up with the big club, but he hasn’t given them much to plead his case.  I like Pearce’s potential more, but if he doesn’t put it together this spring, we’re going to be seeing a lot of Clement over here, yet another player who qualifies at a different position (catcher);  one in which he is much better suited for fantasy purposes.