Outfielders

1st Tier:  Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury

     Unless someone has a real affectation for someone else, these should be the top 5 outfielders off the board this year.  Depending on how many teams are in your league, they could all disappear in the first round, but most likely, the first two.  Ryan Braun has easily established himself as the top fantasy outfielder with 3 straight phenomenal seasons.  As a matter fo fact, he’s averaging a .307 BA over that time with an average of 34 HR, 106 RBI and 16 SB.  For me, Matt Holliday, now officially re-signed with the Cardinals should put up some monster stats this year too with a full season of protecting Albert Pujols inthe lineup.  Think somewhere between his ‘06 and ‘07 totals. 

     Matt Kemp has also recently established himself as a player worthy of first tier consideration.  I was waiting to see how he’d follow up his 2008 breakout season before I was a believer and in ‘09 he turned in offensive improvements across the board.  OK, so maybe he stole one less base, but I’mnot nit-picking like that come draft day.  Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury are the burners again this year.  They might see some competition from some of the other guys below, but with 130 stolen bases in ‘09 between the two of them, along with .300+ batting averages, they stand head and shoulder above the rest today.  Good to see Crawford bringing that power back up to levels we were expecting.

2nd Tier:  Justin Upton, Jason Bay, Grady Sizemore, Adam Dunn, Ichiro Suzuki, Manny Ramirez, Jayson Werth, Bobby Abreu, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Lee

     In a few cases, there was the potential to put some guys into the top tier, but there are still some minor things holding me back.  Justin Upton put up a fantastic .300-26-20 season last year despite starting the season in a platoon role.  However, like I did with Kemp last year, I have to wait and see how he follows up.  I’m not saying he’s not worthy and shouldn’t be taken with a relatively high pick.  I’m just saying that I don’t want to fall for the same hype as we all did with his brother.  Jason Bay is another one who could be up there, but with the streakiness I saw last year, the .267 average and the move to Citi Field, I have to bump him down a spot or two despite the fact that he’ll likely break the 30 HR barrier again.

     Grady Sizemore’s value takes a little hit after last year’s injury problems.  There are plenty of fantasy baseball magazines hyping the comeback season, but you might want to hedge your expectations a bit.  While I still believe he is worthy of a high end pick, I don’t see him reaching those 30-30 levels anytime soon.  20-20 now, is a different story.

     Regardless of how well he’s done in the past two seasons, this could really be the year to own Jayson Werth.  The .273-24-20 season followed up with a .268-36-20 coupled with the contract year he is entering could mean that he puts it all together for a .275-32-20 year in 2010.  Of course, if the Phillies can’t afford him any longer and he signs elsewhere in 2011 he might not be joining such a great lineup in such a great hitters park.  But that’s for next year.

     In the meantime, the rest of the tier is rounded off with some rock solid veterans.  Adam Dunn continued to rake and brought up his average a little, Manny Ramirez should produce at solid levels now that the ‘roids scandal is behind him, Ichiro Suzuki will continue his assault on AL pitching while swiping a ton of bases, and Bobby Abreu should remain consistent.  I like Curtis Granderson even more now that he’s in that stacked Yankees lineup and hopefully he can work on hitting lefties and improve that BA.  And finally there’s “El Caballo”…  While Carlos Lee’s power might be diminishing a little with age, I think he can still throw you another 30+ HR season.  The average may dip below .300, but I’ll still take him!

3rd Tier:  Andre Ethier, Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Shin-Soo Choo, Raul Ibanez, Torii Hunter, Shane Victorino, Adam Jones, Josh Hamilton, Adam Lind, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Alex Rios, Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn, Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano

     The third tier is stacked with plenty of power and speed.  Guys like Nelson Cruz, Raul Ibanez, Josh Hamilton (if healthy),  Adam Lind, Ryan Ludwick and Carlos Quentin can rake with the best of them and should put up strong power numbers this year while speedster like B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn could take their games to the next level.  I like the all around play of Andre Ethier and Nick Markakis and would love to see each of them build on last year’s totals.  I feel like we’ve waited long enough on Markakis, so hopefully this is the year.  Same goes for Alex Rios.  I’m hoping that a full year with the White Sox will help him reach that potential we’ve all be very patiently awaiting.

     OK, so I’ll admit my Adam Jones man-crush right now.  I love this kid and I think he’s going to be a superstar one day, if he’s not already en route.  His ‘09 season of .277-19-70-10 was an outstanding build from his ‘08 rookie campaign.  The only sticking point, and one that I will risk every year, is that because he plays so “all-out”, because he’s a gamer, Jones ends up losing time with an array of minor injuries.  Nothing too serious, but enough to keep him under 500 AB the last 2 years.  If he can stay healthy here in his third full season, I don’t see why he can’t break 20 HR and increase that SB total as well.

     Torii Hunter continues to play at high levels and his 5 tool contributions are wothy of a roster spot in any fantasy league.  I though he was going to fade a year or two ago, but have been happily proven wrong.  Carlos Beltran, with the secret surgery that is now likely to keep him out through April, gets a bump down in value, but if he looks good in extended spring training, then you can probably expect good things from him.  Speaking of injuries, I’m hoping that Alfonso Soriano’s knee troubles are behind him.  That guy went from uber-stud to craptown pretty quickly over these last 2 years.  He’s supposed to be ready for Spring Training so let’s keep our fingers crossed.

     Rounding out the tier are two guys I really like but have a little bit of nervousness about.  Shin-Soo Choo put up a great year last season posting a 20-21 year with a .300 average in his first full year.  But with talk of how desperate he is to win a gold medal at the Asian Games in November (he gets to skip his 2 year military committment if he does), I’m wondering just how “all out” he’s going to go.  The other guy is “The Flyin’ Hawaiian”, Shane Victorino.  He took a small step back in his development last year and I’m wondering if getting buried in the bottom end of the order is going to continue to hinder that progress.  He can easily swipe 40+ bases, but with Jimmy Rollins slated for leadoff and Placido Polanco stepping into the 2 hole, there’s not much opportunity for him to hit higher than 7th in that order.

4th Tier:  Hunter Pence, Denard Span , Andrew McCutchen, Nolan Reimold,  Johnny Damon, Michael Cuddyer, Nate McLouth, Julio Borbon, Jermaine Dye, Rajai Davis, Nyjer Morgan, Vernon Wells, Corey Hart, Brad Hawpe, Cody Ross, Juan Pierre, Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Coghlan, Luke Scott

     Upside, potential, possibilities, you name it.  That’s what we’re looking at from a lot of this tier.  Players like Denard Span, Andrew McCutchen, Nolan Reimold, Julio Borbon, Jay Bruce, Chris Coghlan and Carlos Gonzalez are all fairly young, produced decent 2009 totals and all have room to grow.  Personally, I like McCutchen and Borbon for their speed and I’m not losing faith in Bruce.  The average really needs to come up, but that .353-4-16 September he turned in makes me worry a lot less about his recovery from afractured wrist.  The others should be nice middle round pick ups.

      There are also some veterans that have a good chance to make an impact this year as Juan Pierre returns to full time leadoff duties for the White Sox, Johnny Damon still may stay with the Yankees, and Rajai Davis gets a chance to start in Oakland for the first time.  Maybe it’s because I’m now covering the White Sox for Fanball.com this season, but I really like Pierre as a guy to grab if you miss out on one of the top burners.  Jermaine Dye is still up in the air, but wherever he signs, if he starts, you can still probably expect 20 HR from him.

     As for the other vets in this tier…Michael Cuddyer probably won’t reach that 30 HR total again, but another 20-25 aren’t out of the question, Cody Ross has been improving the last 2 years since getting the starting nod and Luke Scott should continue the decent power/low average trend that he always follows.  Brad Hawpe stays down in this tier because he just can’t keep it going all season long.  He puts up solid numbers overall, but he’s like Jekyll and Hyde each year.  In ‘08 it was the brutally slow start with a monster second half and last season it was the opposite.  I like to call it Nate McLouth Disorder (NMD).  Until he can give me an entire season of steady production, he stays down here. As for McLouth, well, he was doing the same thing, atleast until he kept getting hurt after being traded to the Braves.  We’ll see how he rebounds this year, but again, it’ll probably be for just half the season.

     Finishing off the tier are Corey Hart and Vernon Wells.  Hart went consecutive 20-20 seasons before last year’s disastrous totals, and spent most of the second half on the shelf with broken fingers and an appendectomy.  For me, he (along with Grady Sizemore, but with less talent) is the perfect example of 26 being the new 27.  He peaked in ‘08 at 26 and fell apart the year everyone thought he was going to take his game to the next level.  Should be interesting to see if he rebounds, but if he does, he could be a solid middle to late round fantasy baseball sleeper.  Wells, on the other hand, is a little more risky.  He’s been on the decline since ‘07 and never actually reached that potential we all heard about.  In fact, he’s been pretty inconsistent across the board.  His average is up and down along with his power totals and it’s getting tougher to predict what he’s going to do from year to year.  But that inconsistency just might be good for you if you want to take a late round flyer on him.  Talk him down in your league, scoop him up in the draft and hope/pray for a return to atleast the 25 HR level.     

5th Tier:  Magglio Ordonez, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron, Xavier Nady, Jason Kubel, David DeJesus, Garrett Jones, Milton Bradley, Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Josh Willingham, Kosuke Fukudome, Marlon Byrd, Skip Schumaker, Delmon Young, Franklin Gutierrez, Jeremy Hermida, Nick Swisher, Mark DeRosa, Aaron Rowand, Kyle Blanks, Melky Cabrera

      Now we’re starting to move in to the declining veterans, the injury risks and the youngsters who may or may not have a starting job come the first of April.  Guys like J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron, Xavier Nady, Milton Bradley, and Josh Willingham all have the potential to put up solid power numbers, but their propensity for getting hurt puts a damper on drafting them.  I like 20 HR potential, but I’m often reluctant to draft a guy with an injury history the size of Prince Fielder’s grocery shopping list.

     But some of the guys here have some great potential as well.  Garrett Jones looked great in the second half last season, but obviously needs to show me he can produce over a full season.  How many times have we seen a guy come out like a house of fire after a call-up and then disappear into thin air the following year?  I also like the upside of Colby Rasmus, especially if the Cards put him in the 2 hole in the order.  He excelled last season hitting up there in front of Pujols, so maybe they’ll keep that going.  And then there’s Dexter Fowler.  As it stands right now, he’s behind Carlos Gonzalez on the depth chart, but I like what he has to offer.  His speed is that of a high end burner, but he’s also got some pop in his bat.  Nothing huge, but there’s something there.  He won the starting job early last year, but his undisciplined approach at the plate kept his average and OBP low enough that he only swiped 27 bases (5 in one game) and lost his starting job by season’s end.  If he has a hot spring and Gonzalez doesn’t, then I’d look into drafting him.

     Kyle Blanks has potential, but sitting behind Adrian Gonzalez isn’t helping.  Howvere of trade of either one of them puts Blanks back up there in value.  And sadly, the Braves will soon learn what the Yankees have known all along.  Melky Cabrera is the best Quadruple-A ball player out there.  His totals should be about average, especially moving from favorable Yankee Stadium to pitcher friendly Turner Field.

     As for the rest in the tier, I think you know what you need to know about them.  Nothing special, but nothing terrible.  Some streakiness in there for guys like Aaron Rowand and Kosuke Fukudome, an over-performer last year in Marlon Byrd, and a likely reduction in power for Mark DeRosa as he heads to the cold, damp San Francisco air.

6th Tier:  Carlos Guillen, Jack Cust, David Murphy, Jeff Francoeur, Chris Young, Jose Guillen, Matt LaPorta, Mark Teahen, Coco Crisp, Seth Smith, Matt Diaz, Scott Podsednik, Elijah Dukes, Carlos Gomez, Conor Jackson, Chase Headley, Travis Snider, Willy Taveras, Eugenio Velez, Juan Rivera, Cameron Maybin, Drew Stubbs, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Sweeney, Brian Giles, Lastings Milledge, Gerardo Parra

     Another tier of potential but without much excitement, so I’ll just highlight a few that I like going later in the draft.  Matt LaPorta has great power upside but might need another year before reaching his potential, Mark Teahen could finally hit 20 HR in his first year with the White Sox, Travis Snider has sleeper power potential, Drew Stubbs could be a great power/speed combo, and I like both Eugenio Velez and Carlos Gomez for quality late round speed options.

     Cameron Maybin could be the steal in your draft, though, as he has failed to deliver on the hype, not once but twice.  But let’s not forget that he only turns 23 in April and could turn into the power/speed threat that we’ve all been expecting if he earns the starting job with the Marlins this spring.  A lot of people have been down on him since the hype started two years ago, so hopefully your fellow GMs will overlook him and you’ll be able to steal him late.  I know I’m going to.

7th Tier and beyond:  Randy Winn, Austin Jackson, Trevor Crowe, Gary Matthews, Jr., Rick Ankiel, Brett Gardner, Desmond Jennings, Tony Gwynn, Jr., Michael Saunders, Jason Heyward, Ben Francisco, Garrett Anderson, Nate Schierholtz, Fred Lewis, Ryan Church, Scott Hairston, Marcus Thames, Matt Joyce, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Spilborghs, Chris Dickerson, Willie Harris, Fernando Tatis, Reggie Willits, Jason Michaels, Jordan Schafer, Eric Hinske, Reed Johnson, Will Venable, Brandon Moss, Willie Bloomquist, Wilkin Ramirez

     And then there’s the rest of them.  The part-timers, the back-ups, the short end of the platoon.  These are goign to be your super late round flyers and likely the handcuffs to your injury prone outfielders.  There are some that have som edecent upside, but i’m not thinking any of these guys unti after round 20 at the earliest.  I’ll definitely keep an eye on Austin Jackson, who could start for the Tigers this year, Trevor Crowe who might get a look in Cleveland, Tony Gwynn, Jr. could be starting for the Brewers, and maybe Desmond Jennings if the Rays are looking to mix things up.  Beyond that, I’m looking at a bunch of waiver pick ups if I incur injuries or am just totally desperate for a body in there.