Outfielders

Outfielders

1st Tier:  Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp

     Fantasy deliciousness up here, but not without a few caveats.  Braun, CarGo and Crawford will all probably go in the first round, but the only one I’m man-crushing on of the three is Braun.  He’s been super consistent and will continue to be a top producer at his position.  CarGo’s 2010 was absolutely outstanding, but I’m still concerned about his splits.  I know he signed a fat deal to stay in Colorado, but if he doesn’t start producing on the road, his probable regression this year could mark where he’ll remain, numbers-wise.  And as for Crawford, well, allow me to divert you back to a piece I wrote on him back in late January.

     For some reason Holliday doesn’t get the press he deserves, which is actually ok by me.  I love it when people sleep on a talent like this.  The latest ADP Rankings at MockDraftCentral.com have him as a second, sometimes third, rounder depending on the size of the league, so apparently you don’t have to sweat that potential .310-30-100 line in the first round.  Hamilton continues to produce at high levels, so long as he stays healthy, which is always a concern with him.  personally I feel safer with Holliday, but maybe that’s just me.

     Kemp took a significant drop last season in every category save for HR.  His strikeouts increased, his SB% dropped and his average ended up in the toilet.  So why do I have him in the top tier?  Well, he’s only 26 and there’s more to come in the power department and Joe Torre is gone which, as you saw late last season, helped his play and confidence.  Then there’s a little piece I did last year about 26 being the new 27.  I see a big year from him.

2nd Tier:  Justin Upton, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Ichiro Suzuki, Alex Rios, Andrew McCutchen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Nelson Cruz

     Power and speed, that’s what this tier is all about.  Upton, Choo, Pence, Rios, McCutchen and Cruz all have both qualities and make them some of the most valuable commodities in the fantasy game today.  I see Choo, Pence and Rios towing the line and putting up numbers consistent with what they gave last season, while I see Upton and McCutchen taking their games up a notch.  Upton signed a fat deal last year and has been the subject of numerous trade rumors.  He’ll continue to produce at high levels in Arizona, but if he lands with a contender with a stronger lineup around hi, watch out!  McCutchen finally has some hitters around him and has progressed nicely in his first 2 seasons.  This should be the year he puts it all together and gives you a 20-30 seasons, I think.

     Ellsbury and Ichiro are stolen base kings and great for runs scored.  Ichiro’s batting average does wonders for your team, especially if you then invest in a high power/low average guy like Adam Dunn.  Ellsbury doesn’t have the average Ichiro has, but he’ll steal more bases and the runs scored in that Boston lineup could be crazy.

     And then there’s Cruz.  I’ve actually always been a big fan of his, but the injuries are a big risk.  He’ll continue to hit for power, but I wouldn’t expect much in the speed department anymore.  I think his hamstring troubles last season will prevent him from getting the green light on the bases this season.

3rd Tier:  Jayson Werth, Andre Ethier, Delmon Young, Corey Hart, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Chris Young, Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Shane Victorino, Jason Heyward, Jose Bautista

     Some solid talent here, but obviously no one is as much of a lock as the top two tiers.  I do not like Werth’s move to Washington and feel a major regression coming on as I wrote last month.  Ethier was on his way to a great year last year but got hurt.  I think he’ll still hit well, but my concern is that the window of opportunity may have passed.  It could be that 2009 was his ceiling, and while those totals are great, I don’t think you can expect much more.

     Chris Young needs to bring his average up, Delmon needs to show it to me again before I believe, Hart had a major comeback but lost the stolen bases, Jones and Markakis can be so much better with a little consistency, and Victorino remains just a solid option.

     This could be the year that both Bruce and Rasmus break out, so both should be considered solid power threats.  I’ve been a fan of both of them since their rookie campaigns, but it looks like it’s going to be more difficult to acquire them for the cheap prices I had paid in the past.  Bautista is a much better option at third, and Heyward is still one of the hottest commodities in keeper leagues.  Expect more growth from him this year and don’t let him go.

4th Tier:  Aubrey Huff, Denard Span, Drew Stubbs, Jason Bay, Torii Hunter, Austin Jackson, Bobby Abreu, Curtis Granderson, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher, Rajai Davis, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Quentin, Michael Stanton, Brett Gardner, Michael Cuddyer, Jose Tabata, Jason Kubel, Juan Pierre

     There’s a big mix of players on the rise and salty veterans who used to find themselves in some of the higher tiers in the past.  Some old reliables that I still like to have on my roster include Abreu, Hunter, Cuddyer, Huff and Swisher.  You can look at their numbers and see what they’ve done in the past year or two and get a solid idea as to what their production will be like for you.  They’re all fairly consistent options although Swisher’s BA could be something to watch despite last year’s increase.

     You’ve got some decent burners in Bourn, Pierre, Gardner and Davis and all three should, not only put up great steals totals, but are much cheaper options than Ellsbury.  Careful with Davis though as he was a much better option before the Blue Jays signed Scott Podsednik.

     Solid guys who still have something to prove, whether it’s inconsistency, injury issues, or just need to prove themselves a second time around include Bay, Beltran, Pagan, Quentin, Lee, Span, Sizemore, Kubel and Granderson.  They can be solid outfield options as your 3rd or 4th guy, but some improvement in still needed.

     Then you’ve got your up and comers who I think will take their games to the next level this season.  Tabata and Stubbs will blossom into great power/speed combo players, potential 20-20 guys down the road, and Stanton is just going to rake.  Right now, he’s the poor man’s Adam Dunn, although you still might need to spend a few bucks more given his age and potential.  I could easily see him crushing 30+ HR this year.

5th Tier:  Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Cody Ross, Ben Zobrist, Chris Coghlan, Franklin Gutierrez, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Raburn, Andres Torres, Marlon Byrd, Coco Crisp, Garrett Jones, Julio Borbon, Lance Berkman, Tyler Colvin, David DeJesus, Dexter Fowler, Josh Willingham, Will Venable, Magglio Ordonez, Travis Snider

     Definitely a mixed bag here, but guys who will adorn rosters as 4th, 5th and 6th outfielders in most 15 team mixed leagues and plenty of AL/NL only leagues.  Just to highlight a few:  I like Snider’s power in Toronto and think he’ll so well with consistent at bats, Gutierrez could spring to the next tier with a little more power and a better average, Raburn could surprise people if he gets the regular playing time, and Berkman should be an interesting watch in St. Louis.  He’s got a solid lineup around him, but playing the field regularly could be a problem.    Also, if Fowler is consistently in the lineup, he could put up crazy stolen bases with some pop that most of the other burners lack.  I like him as a sleeper this year.

6th Tier and beyond:  David Murphy, Raul Ibanez, J.D. Drew, Logan Morrison, Ryan Ludwick, Domonic Brown, Carlos Gomez, Jeff Francoeur, Scott Podsednik, Jonny Gomes, Mitch Moreland, Omar Infante, Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, Juan Rivera, Michael Brantley, Desmond Jennings, Cameron Maybin, Kyle Blanks

     Everyone knows the hype on Brown, so he will obviously cost more than the rest of these guys in the tier.  Probably the same goes for Jennings, unless of course, people get scared off with the additions of Damon And Ramirez to the Rays.  I like Morrison as a cheap option for mid-level power and I’m really hoping that Gomez’ winter league play translates to the bigs this year.  if it doesn’t, then he’s a great sleeper in Milwaukee.  Cameron Maybin moves onto his third team now, and I’m just not sure about the outlook just yet.  Need to see some spring at bats before I go after the once-hyped 5 tool threat.  So far he’s been no sizzle and far too much fizzle.  Fo shizzle.

     Honorable mentions to Ben Francisco and Seth Smith.  Francisco could end up a great late round sleeper if Domonic Brown flops and Smith always seems to work himself into the lineup in Colorado and contribute with some streaky power.  Also a nod to Lorenzo Cain who only has Melky Cabrera standing in his way.