The top tier has been pretty consistent for the last couple of years.  Chase Utley proved all doubters wrong last year when he overcame offseason hip surgery to smack 31 homers, hit .282 on the year and steal a career high 23 bases.  He’s had an OPS of .900 or better for five straight years and should continue to lead the pack.

  

     Ian Kinsler rebounded nicely from a down 2008 to go 31-31 last year and while the average needs work, it’s not deterring me enough to drop him down in the player rankings.  And I’ll admit it…I was never a big believer in Brandon Phillips, but he backs up his 30-30 ‘07 with back to back 20-20 seasons?  I’m sold.

     Brian Roberts rounds out the top tier for me this year with his stolen bases and consistency.  With the exception of the 2008 season where he had 9 HR and 40 stolen bases, he hasn’t hit less than 10 HR or swiped fewer than 27 bags in the last 5 years.  2010 should bring more of the same from him.

 

     The second tier is very interesting as most of these guys have made a case to be in the top tier.  We’ll start with the obvious and that’s Aaron Hill.  Last year, he was the poster child for “fantasy baseball’s 27 year old breakouts“, hitting .283 with 36 HR and 108 RBI.  I’m sure he’s skyrocketed to the top 3 in most fantasy baseball magazines, but I want to see him for another season.  He doesn’t have to it 30 plus again, but for me to believe, he has to produce another high value year.  He’s never shown that kind of power before, in the majors or minors, so it should be interesting to see what he brings to the table in 2010.

    Ben Zobrist is another one.  A late bloomer, Zobrist got his chance when the Rays were dealing with a ton of injuries and never looked back.  He hit 27 HR, had eligibility at second, shortstop and the outfield, and was the hottest free agent pick up back in mid April.  The team traded away Akinori Iwamura to give Zobrist the job, so while he’s a great pickup, you have to be sensible.  There’s a reason a guy doesn’t get his first real shot until he’s 28 and the team is decimated by injuries.

     Dustin Pedroia stays in the second tier with a solid season following up a breakout year.  His numbers weren’t as strong across the board as they were in 2008, but a 15-20 season with a .295 average is plenty to ask of your second baseman.  Dan Uggla also remains in the second tier with 3 straight seasons with 30+ HR.  His average stinks and he doesn’t steal any bases, but that kind of power can’t be ignored.

     I’m throwing Robinson Cano in here as I think we’re going to see him build even more of of last year’s breakkout totals.  He’s always been a great batting average guy with double digit HR, but last year he also posted a career high with 204 hits with a .352 OBP.  While he may not increase his power totals too much, he stays in the upper echelon with even just a duplicate year.

 

     If you don’t end up with anyone from the previous two tiers, the third tier is still a ta place to find yourself a quality second baseman.  Jose Lopez is a solid vet with 20 HR power and a solid average and Placido Polanco shoots up the ladder with his return t0 Philadelphia where he spent his most productive season back in 2004.  He may be a little older than you’d like, but he’s a career .303 hitter who should have great opportunities in one of baseball’s most potent lineups.  And then you’ve got Clint Barmes who finally seemed to get it together and has taken over the second base job in Colorado.  He popped 23 HR last year and while the average was horrible, I see this as a second coming for him and he should be a very helpful addition to your fantasy team.

 

     If you’re looking for youth, then Ian Stewart and Gordon Beckham should prove to be great choices at second base this year.  Stewart popped 25 HR while splitting up time in Colorado and now gets full time duties over at the hot corner.  Fantasy wise, he’s a better second base option though if you want to add some extra infield power.  Beckham is another great option, especially in long term keeper leagues, as the 2008 first round draft pick made a nice debut with 14 HR and a .270 average in just 378 at bats.  He’s also be playing third, but makes for a better option over the second.

     Asdrubal Cabrera finishes out the tier for me as another youngster ready to break out even further.  He’s got the starting shortstop gig in Cleveland, qualifies at second, hit over .300 last year and emerged as a decent speed option with17 swipes in 2009.  I expect him to build on that and possibly even crack the 30 SB barrier if he hits near the top of the lineup.      

 

     So this is where the mix of mediocrity comes in.  You’ve got a little bit of power, a little bit of speed and a little bit of batting average, but none of them really put all three together all the time for the entire season.
  

     Kelly Johnson is the only real fantasy baseball sleeper here for me as I think the change of scenery in Arizona is going to do him a  world of good.  In fact, I think we might even see a return to his 2007 totals.  Akinori Iwamura might also find some success here with a move to Pittsburgh, and we’ll keep a close watch on Martin Prado who gets the starting nod for the first time to start a season.

     Howie Kendrick remains an enigma in both the real and fantasy baseball worlds.  Highly touted as a great contact hitter, Kendrick usually offers very little other than batting average.  His minimal power and penchant for trips to the DL have people sour on him.  So much so that the Anels demoted him last year.  But when the team called him back up, he had a tremendous second half and even had a career high in HR last year with 10.  Not the greatest choice, but if he can stay healthy, he’ll definitely help you along.

     As for the rest, you can pretty much count on a similar numbers to career averages for guys like Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez (if they sign somewhere and start) and you’ve got your usual injury concerns with Rickie Weeks and Freddy Sanchez.  When healthy they can help, but you run a great risk of needing to fish off the free agent waiver wire relatively quickly. 

 

     With a couple of exceptions here, the 5th tier is made up of players who, as of right now, have the starting job, but could either split some time, or even worse, lose it with a bad spring.  Few of them will spark your fantasy team this year, but there might be a name or two to keep your eye on when fishing late in the draft.

     Mark Ellis, Jeff Baker, Alexei Casilla, Skip Schumaker, Luis Valbuena, Kaz Matsui, and Luis Castillo all have the starting second base jobs for their teams, but because none of them put up inspiring numbers, there are a mess of utility guys out there that can steal some regular playing time from them throughout the year.  Valbuena is a bit of a sleeper here as he’s a youngster who earned the job in the second half last year and has a little bit of upside.

     Another sleeper in the bunch is Eugenio Velez.  As of right now, the Giants have him slated to play right field with a possible spot as a leadoff hitter.  If he plays near the levels he showed in the second half of last year, he could be a bit of a diamond in the rough.  The same could be thought of Adam Kennedy, but he still remains unsigned and there are few teams looking for a full time second baseman, especially when better options like O-Dog  and Flippy Lopez are still out there.

      Casey McGehee gets to play in this tier because of two reasons:  1. His power potential.  He hit .301 with 16 HR in just 355 AB last season after his call-up, and 2.  He’s got the oft-injured Rickie Weeks playing ahead of him.  The second reason alone is enough to keep him on your radar watch towards the tail end of your draft.

     And finally, rounding out the tier is the Kansas City platoon of Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz.  I was hoping Getz would get the starting nod once he was traded from the White Sox, but it looks like they’ll fight it out this spring and probably end up in a platoon this year.  Getz, a lefty, has great speed on the basepaths and has the potential of putting up 25 to 30 steals even in a platoon situation.  Callaspo, though seems to be the more polished defender and hit .361 against lefties last season.  Keep an eye on this one though as one might outshine the other and land the full time gig. 

 

     And then there’s the utility bunch.  Sort of.  Carroll, Uribe, Carroll, Ojeda, and Izturis are all slated for backup infield duties, but with some of the injury prone guys that are playing in front of them, any one of the three could be landing 400 at bats or more.  Don Kelly is listed as the starter in Detroit, but that is likely to change come spring time.  For now, though, their value is severely limited.  As for the others, I like Rodriguez, Eric Young and Sizemore as possible fantasy sleepers for this year and next.  They all have great potential but likely need another year of seasoning in the minors.  Delwyn Young, on the other hand, could push for more playing time this year, but that’s a wait and see approach, too.  If he has a strong spring, he could push Iwamura to the bench.