Shortstops

1st Tier:  Hanley Ramirez

     While some will think I’m crazy for putting Hanley Ramirez all by himself, let me just say, that as a consensus top 3 pick overall (top 2 in my eyes), his fantasy value supersedes that of any other shortstop in the game.  He hits for power, he hits for average, and while he’s been knocked down to the 3 hole in the lineup for more RBI opportunities, he can still steal bases with the best of them.  Even better is that he just recently (Dec. 23rd) turned 26 and if you’ve read my piece about “26 being the new 27“, you know that even greener pastures lie ahead.  This kid is a stud;  no better way to say it.  If you lock him in, then you’ve got yourself the premier 5 tool guy at the thinnest position in fantasy baseball.

2nd Tier:  Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, Jose Reyes

     So now that I’m done fluffing Hanley, let’s talk about the next group.  Plenty will argue that these guys could/should be in the top tier as well, but each one has something, albeit something small, that makes you pause, even if just for a moment.  They are all fantastic options at the position, so don’t get me wrong.  If you end up with one of these guys, then you should already be a step ahead of your competition.

     Troy Tulowitzki had a fantastic rebound in 2009 for his fantasy owners.  After missing most of 2008 and disappointing all those that drafted him, Tulo came back strong.  Sure, his first 2 months were worrisome but for those that persevered through the dark days of April and May, they saw the light from June and beyond.  He finished the year hitting .297 with 32 HR, 92 RBI and 20 stolen bases;  numbers that would make anyone drool.  But I need to see him do it one more time before throwing him in the same tier as Hanley.  Not to mention, with his 20 SBs came 11 caught stealing (CS) so his 64.5% success rate tells me that those speed numbers might be coming down.  After all, in a down year for speed for him, Hanley’s was still 77.1%.

     For Jimmy Rollins, the power came back, the SBs dropped and the batting average tanked last season.  As a matter of fact, his .296 OBP was the lowest of his career and his .423 slugging percentage was his lowest since 2003.  The seasons have been starting off slowly for Rollins and it’s leaving questions as to whether or not the 31 year old is in decline.  Still, a 21-31 season is gold for fantasy purposes.

     Speaking of decline, have the so-called experts finished eating their humble pie served up fresh and hot from Derek Jeter?  Because he’s so high profile in New York and the world is filled with Yankee-haters, the debates were furious prior to last season.  I heard so much stupidity that even I had to respond.  But no one responded louder than Jeter as he enjoyed one the best offensive and defensive seasons of his career.  Unless your league counts errors against you, we can throw out the defensive stuff, so let’s stick with the offense.  A batting line of .334-18-66-30 with 107 runs scored says it all.  None were career highs, but how can you argue with those stats from a 14 year veteran?  You just can’t.  But I’m a realist and I’ll admit that his stats, as great as they were, will be hard for him to repeat.  I don’t think he’ll fall too short, but even I have to keep it all in perspective.

     Finishing off the tier is Jose Reyes.  Once a consensus top 5 pick overall, Reyes spent almost all of the 2009 season on the DL with what started as a calf strain but quickly developed into a full blown hamstring problem.  He had surgery to fix it, but then had to have another one in October to clean out some scar tissue.  I’m willing to give him a mulligam on ‘09, but you have to be concerned about a guy with such issues who makes his living off of his legs.

3rd Tier:  Ben Zobrist, Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Bartlett, Yunel Escobar, Elvis Andrus

     While some will question why I didn’t include Ben Zobrist in the second tier, I think it’s a no-brainer.  As great a year as he had, let’s just keep things in perspective and remember it was just on eyear.  Rather than reiterate what I’ve already written about him in the Second Base Tiers, I’ll just refer you back to that article.  I will mention, though, that based on the depth at short versus that of second base and even the outfield, Zobrist makes a better fantasy option here than he does at the other positions, so long as he qualifies.

     The rest of the tier has some solid players, but obviously not worth the level of investment it would take to secure one of the top two tiered guys.  Alexei Ramirez has a couple of question marks surrounding him, but I’m still a believer.  His rookie season was fantastic when he hit .290 with 21 HR and 77 RBI.  He also swiped 13 bases that year.  But last year he dropped in power and average and had a horrific .389 slugging percentage.  It could have been the ol’ sophomore slump or it could have been the wear and tear of a full season in the bigs.  But I think he’ll rebound this year.  He may not increase his stolen bases too much, but he’s got too much power potential to hit less than 20 HR in a season.  You might be able to talk him down in your league a little and make off with him in the middle to lower rounds.

     Asdrubal Cabrera and Elvis Andrus are two players on the rise.  Despite missing the month of June with a sprained shoulder, Cabrera still went on to hit .308 with 6 HR and 17 stolen bases in his first full year as a starter.  He’s 24 and looking to get better.  He might not hit .300 regularly, but if the Tribe keeps him at the top end of the lineup, he’s definitely going to improve on those SBs.  And speaking of SBs, how long before Andrus starts swiping 40+ each year?  His .266 average last season was a product of learning the major league game, but from the bottom of the order he still swiped 33 bases.  If he can make the necessary adjustments to get on base more, it’s going to be sooner rather than later that he gets his shot at the leadoff spot.

     Rounding out the tier are Jason Bartlett and Yunel Escobar;  a late bloomer and a guy right in his prime.  Bartlett, 30, blossomed once he was dealt away from the Twins and is making the Rays look like geniuses for having him “thrown in” to the Matt Garza for Delmon Young deal.  He was one of the hottest hitters in baseball last year, and while I don’t necessarily see him maintaining the power levels, I see no reason for him to not hit .300+ with another 25 to 30 stolen bases.  Escobar, on the other hand, I do see maintaining the power, if not kicking in a little more this year.  He’s improved offensively across the board these past 2 seasons and should put it all together for a rock solid third full year.  

4th Tier:  Miguel Tejada, Ryan Theriot, Jhonny Peralta, Stephen Drew, Alcides Escobar, Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro

     To be honest, there’s really not too much separating this tier of players from the one below.  In fact, I was almost tempted to combine the two, but each of the guys here has a little something that I like enough to put them above the rest of the lot.

     Let’s start with the old guys, er….I mean, veterans.  Miguel Tejada may not have a job yet, but someone’s going to bite after he put up a .313-14-86 season in 2009.  Sure, he’s a dinosaur in baseball fantasy circles, but if that dinosaur has the ability to contribute more power than the average shortstop, then he is far from extinct. 

     The same goes for Orlando Cabrera.  He, too, is without a home right now, but his .308-5-46 second half with 6 stolen bases helped ignite the Twins and pushed them past the Tigers to make the playoffs.  There are plenty of teams that can use his veteran leadership and there are plenty of fantasy teams that could do worse than his .285 average with 8-10 HR and a dozen stolen bases. 

     In the middle of this tier we have Ryan Theriot, Stephen Drew, Marco Scutaro, and Jhonny Peralta.  If you’ve been reading the tiers over the past few days, you’re already familiar with my thoughts on Peralta so I’ll just refer you to the Third Base Position Tiers and you can check it yourself.  I will say, though, that he’s a better fantasy pick here at short than he is over at third.

     Theriot reached a career high in homers last year (7), but you’re not using him for is power.  Nope.  He’s a decent average guy who will steal you 20 bases.  If you can accept the fact that he probably won’t reach those 7 homers again but will still swipe you 20 bags, then he’s a great low-cost option.

     Drew finds himself back down in these ranks simply because he peaked in ‘08.  He went from crappy average with mediocre power to high average with 20+ HR power and back to an even crappier average and further mediocrity with the stick.  While he may hit more HR than the other guys in this tier, his sub-.260 average is going to be a drain on your batting average and psyche.

     It’s amazing to me when a career utility guy hits .282 with 12 HR and 14 SB in one season out of six and suddenly he’s a breakout player.  Well, that’s what everyone was saying about Scutaro who topped 500 AB in a year for just the second time in his career.  Personally, I’m taking the sun shining on a dog’s ass atleast once approach here.  Despite going to Beantown, I just don’t see him improving on his totals and frankly, I don’t see a career .265 hitter topping .280 again.

     Finising off this tier is wild card Alcides Escobar.  He’s probably being locked in as a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper by most of the fantasy baseball magazines, so he might cost a little more than he should.  However, the Brewers saw enough in him to deal away J.J. Hardy and his minor league stats indicate a high average and great stolen bases.  But unless Ken Macha gives his boys the green light more (Milwaukee was 28th in SBs in 2009), we may never see that develop.

5th Tier:  Ian Desmond, J.J. Hardy, Erik Aybar, Cristian Guzman, Rafael Furcal, Edgar Renteria, Everth Cabrera, Cliff Pennington, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Alex Gonzalez, Jack Wilson, Cesar Izturis, Mike Aviles

     I can’t really say there’s too much I like about this tier and I’m going to do everything in my power to make sure I atleast find a 4th tier guy for my squads.  But if I hve to make a choice, then I’ll take the upside that Ian Desmond, Cliff Pennington and maybe Everth Cabrera bring with their youth.  None have really dazzled me, but I’d rather take a shot on a rookie than hope that Rafael Furcal’s surgically repaired back will hold up or that Jack Wilson won’t be downright useless in every imaginable roto category. 

 6th Tier and beyond:   Adam Everett, Tommy Manzella, Ronny Cedeno, Ramon Vazquez, Paul Janish, Chris Valaika, Jed Lowrie, Robert Andino, Tyler Green, Yuniesky Betancourt, Ramon Santiago, Omar Vizquel

     And if you think I’m sour on the 5th tier, imagine what I’m thinking about scraping the bottom of the shortstop barrel here.  If the Astros don’t grab a veteran shortstop, then maybe Tommy Manzella  might be a nice late round sleeper.  Same for the Reds and Paul Janish.  But really…if one of these guys is your starting shortstop, then you’ve got issues.