Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitchers

1st Tier:  Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee

     Everything you could possibly want in a starting pitcher and anchor for your fantasy rotation.  Halladay is just a beast and the top gun out there.  He’s got it all — wins, K’s, great ratios and he’s done it year in and year out.  Super consistent and always worth the price you have to pay.

     King Felix is getting better and better but will fall short for you in the wins department.  Sure, the category is as arbitrary as it gets, but most leagues still use it, so while he’ll have great ratios and K’s, the Mariners will screw you in that department.  Sabathia, on the other hand, has the Yankees offense backing him and will get you where you need to be, but he has fallen a little in the strikeout department.

     Lee, back in the NL again and pitching for the Phillies, should pack a mean punch for you this season.  His numbers from his half year and post-season with the Phils was outstanding and expectations are high.  He’s never posted a 200 K season, but how many guys can say they’ve walked only 18 batters in 212+ innings?  The guy is a WHIP machine.

     Wainwright has done amazin gthings with his career since being converted from a reliever, including 39 wins, 425 Ks, roughly a 2.50 ERA and a WHIP just above 1.10 in his last 2 seasons.  Last season’s 5 complete games and 2 shutouts are always a nice bonus.

     And then there’s Timmy.  I’ve been doing a little extra research on him lately due to my work on SF Giants Report, and have mixed feelings about him.  After 2 Cy Youngs in his first 2 years, he had a serious regression last season as he declined in virtually every category.  His K’s were down, his ERA and WHIP were up and he gave up more HR in a season than he had ever done before.  He threw almost 250 innings between the regular season and the playoffs and apparently increased his off season throwing as well.  He’s headed back to the arbitration table again at season’s end and there’s a chance he tries to push himself too much.  It’s a tough call to make, because I think he’s fantastic, but there are little signs here and there that are making me worry a little.  For a little more in-depth coverage on my concerns, check out this article and if you want to see something that REALLY pissed off the Giants community, check out this one!          

2nd Tier:  Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, Jered Weaver, Clayton Kershaw, Roy Oswalt, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, David Price

     More fantastic starters here in the second tier and the line between these guys and some of the one’s just discussed is pretty damn thin.  We’ve seen some speed bumps in the careers of these, which is, I suppose why I have them here, but I’d be more than happy to have any of these guys on my roster as they will undoubdtedly cost you less than the guys from Tier 1 and can put up stats just as tasty. 

     Johnson, Price and Kershaw are major stars on the rise.  Keeper leaguers will probably be forced in paying more than maybe they should.  Jimenez, Cain, Weaver, and Lester have really come into their own and can anchor a staff very nicely.  Carpenter, Oswalt and Verlander have been doing it for a little longer and are rock solid choices, and I think Hamels is going to significantly benefit from the experience of the guys he will be pitching alongside.  Not only will he learn to be a better pitcher from them, but the pressure will be significantly less as he’s now the 4th starter in that group. 

3rd Tier:  Clay Buchholz, Zack Greinke, Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Francisco Liriano, Trevor Cahill, Jonathan Sanchez, Ted Lilly, Yovani Gallardo, Javier Vazquez

     For me, the separation between this tier and Tier 2 is much greater than the difference between the first two groups.  This is where some of the question marks come in and the speed bumps we’ve seen have a little more impact on my opinions.  Take Buchholz for example.  Phenomenal year last season, absolutely phenomenal.  But he had a significant increase in innings pitched, throws in a monster division and likely won’t hit the ratios he saw last year.  I worry that he’ll tire out quicker which should put his ratios, maybe, a little closer to his curren t3 year averag totals.

      Latos and Cahill both have big shoes to fill in comparison to last year’s numbers and as we saw Latos tire out last season, we could see more of that from both of them this year.  Just like Hanson, they are both on their way, but I need to see them do it again before they have my full confidence.

     Liriano and Gallardo can both post solid numbers, but the injury risks always make me hedge my bets with them.  Sanchez is a solid strikeout option but can let his emotions get the better of him as we saw in the playoffs last year.  Lilly is Lilly.  You know exactly what you’re getting with him.

      I think Greinke will start off the year in solid form.  He’ll have a fresh start in Milwaukee, get to attack the NL hitters and probably put up numbers closer to his Cy Young year.  However, if he doesn’t sign a long term deal and the Brewers start dangling his name in trade rumors, you coul dbe in for more of what we saw last year.  I actually did a series of write ups on this that you should check out if you’re targeting him.

     Then you’ve got Haren and Hudson, both of whom I like on some levels but still have serious reservations on others.  Haren is back in the AL full time, and while he’ll have more pitcher’s parks to play around in, the hitting will definitely be stronger.  Hudson’s year was outstanding, but with his age and rebuilt arm, I need to see it again before I’m convinced.

     Funny enough, my favorite in this tier is actually Vazquez.  We saw what he did two years ago in Atlanta and then the subsequent collapse in his return to New York.  I think we’ll get back to those Atlanta totals as he now calls the NL East and Sun Life Stadium his home.  I anticipate big Ks, and tasty low ratios here.       

4th Tier:  Shaun Marcum, Max Scherzer, Brett Myers, Brett Anderson, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, Bronson Arroyo, Jaime Garcia, Daniel Hudson, Johnny Cueto, Wandy Rodriguez

      Now we’re moving into more of a mixed bag.  It’s hard to go into detail about each and every guy, so I’ll do a little sum up.  Guys who I think are capable of building on last year’s success include Marcum, Scherzer, Gonzalez, and Garcia.  Marcum is my favorite of the lot.  Billingsley just needs to show me that 2009 was just a minor speed bump.  He had a solid campaign last year, so I’d just like to see if the consistency is truly there.

     Anderson needs to stay healthy, Beckett is in need of a fierce rebound, Arroyo is Arroyo, Danks is a solid option, and I hate Wandy.  Sure, his numbers looke dok last year, but 2009 was the peak and now we’re headed towards the valley.  Cueto, on the other hand, could be on the rise if he can continue the growth we’ve seen so far.

5th Tier:  Brandon Morrow, Ervin Santana Ricky Nolasco, Matt Garza, Jeremy Guthrie, Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Johan Santana, C.J. Wilson, Carlos Zambrano, Colby Lewis, Hiroki Kuroda, R.A. Dickey, Travis Wood, Ricky Romero

     Again, lots of players here so I’ll just pick a few highlights, and maybe a lowlight or two.  Gutrhie surprised plenty last year with his late season surge, but be carfeul, given the division and hitter-friendly Camden Yards.  I rode the Nolasco train last year and watched it derail in comparison to projections, but might still be willing to give him another shot at a lower cost now.

     I love Hughes and Romero and despite the rough and tough AL East, think they’ll both post solid campaigns.  Garza’s move to Wrigley concerns me, not sold on Lewis’ repeat but maybe Wilson’s, and Kennedy could be on the rise here.  Big Z is just too emotional for me to fiully trust, but that late season surge was nice.

6th Tier:  Jeremy Hellickson, Brian Matusz, Ryan Dempster, Scott Baker, Jhoulys Chacin, Gavin Floyd, Randy Wolf, Madison Bumgarner, Wade Davis, Brett Cecil, Carl Pavano, Tim Stauffer, Anibal Sanchez, Fausto Carmona

     Plenty of up and coming names here like Hellickson, Matusz, Chacin, Bumgarner and Davis, but be careful.  Aside from young pitchers with lofty expectations costing too much, there’s the innings pitched factor that tends to limit their production later in the year.  I’m always a fan of drafting these guys if I can get them cheap and trading them in early June if they’re performing well.

     You have a pretty good idea of wheat you’re getting from everyone else, but I’ll warn you off Carmona if he ends up getting traded to the Yankees.  That park and that division will destroy him.    

7th Tier:  Mark Buehrle, Jordan Zimmerman, Derek Lowe, Jorge de la Rosa, J.A. Happ, James McDonald, Mike Pelfrey, Dallas Braden, Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Lackey, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Niemann, Homer Bailey, Jon Garland

     This is where you start filling out the rest of your rotation for cheap and just pray that some of these guys can keep it together.  Consistency is not always their strong suit.  You do, however, have some young arms here that could end up paying strong dividends in the end if they can build on past success and keep a clear head such as Happ, Jurrjens and Niemann.

     Zimmerman should be an interesting watch as he returns from Tommy John surgery and I like McDonald as a quiet little sleeper in Pittsburgh.  You’ll never get the Braden who threw a perfect game ever again, but he still might be worth a late look.  Lackey could be a nice bargain if he can get the walks under control. 

8th Tier and beyond:  Brian Duensing, Edwin Jackson, Tommy Hunter, Mike Leake, Kevin Slowey, Edinson Volquez, Jason Vargas, Joel Pineiro, Jarrod Parker, James Shields, Barry Enright, A.J. Burnett, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard, Kyle Drabek, Randy Wells, Aaron Harang

     And here we go…..this is where the bargain shopping gets dicey.  It’s tough to pick from a lot like this and try to figure out who’s going to be productive and who’s going to cost you some serious pitching points with their in-season blow-ups.  But if you’re rolling the dice here, let me say that I like rebound seasons from Slowey, Shields and….don’t laugh….Harang.  I do not like Burnett and am skeptical on a full year of Jackson in Chicago.  Mixed feelings on Volquez, Leake, Enright and Norris but might try them for a buck.  Drabek is going to cost too much based on his prospect status.