So I’m on my way home from Shoreline Amphitheater last night after seeing the Dead perform their final show of their recent tour and like a good fantasy owner, I let my wife do the driving so I could check the stats for all of my teams. With the sick China>Rider jam still resonating in my head, I opened up the live scoring page for my team known as Monster Trunk** and was floored by the bottom stat line — 9 stolen bases!
Really? 9 stolen bases? Could that have been a misprint? A clerical error? I checked and double checked. It was accurate all right. David Wright had 4, Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton each swiped a pair, and Russell Martin pitched in with his 4th of the year. Currently, I am crushing in the category in this 5×5 roto league as I aleady have a total of 72 SBs; 22 more than the next team. Hell, last year’s leader in the category had 187 and I’m way ahead of that pace.
Time to make a trade? I think so.
But so why am I telling you this? Certainly it’s not to brag (ok, maybe a little for my competitors that I know are reading). I’m telling you this because it all coincides with something I wrote back in January for AddictFantasySports.com. In an article entitled, “Getting Trendy”, I preached about the keeping up with the changes in the game. To stay ahead of your competition, you needed to know what fantasy categories would be at a premium and which ones you could most easily find a way to move up. For 2009, I talked about the increase of stolen bases in comparison to the decrease in HR we’d see in the post-steroid era.
Well, after my 9 SB bonanza and things like Dexter Fowler swiping 5 in one game only to be outdone by Carl Crawford’s 6 in another, I decided to take a quick peek on how my theory was progressing. So here’s what I’ve learned:
In 2008, there were a total of 4,878 HR to 2,799 SB. That’s 1.74 HR per steal.
So far in 2009, there have been a total of 1066 HR to 675 SB — 1.58 HR per steal.
If we’re talking about a baseball season as being 6 months long (give or take a few days), then that 4,878 HR averages out to about 812 HR per month. According to the 2009 totals, we’re off pace here and looking at about 710 per month. Almost 100 a month less.
The stolen bases, on the other hand, might be slightly below last year’s pace (466/mth vs 450/mth), but the differential is almost negligible when you take into account how many teams are so far ahead of the curve this year so far (Tampa Bay, I’m looking in your direction). By year’s end, we should easily see an overall increase in stolen bases.
So what does this mean for fantasy? It means that, in comparison to your speed guys, your mashers are going to be at a much higher premium for you to get. People will want the moon for the guy that bangs 30 HR in a season. Your speed guys are a different story.
With speed being so abundant, it should be easier for you to acquire a few good guys and leapfrog a handful of teams in the category. In looking at my league’s current standings, there are only 18 stolen bases separating the guy in second fromthe guy in 11th. That’s 9 fantasy points ripe for the picking.
And it’s not like you even need to trade for a big speed demon like Crawford or Jacoby Ellsbury. Look for some lower end guys to help you out. Jason Bartlett has 9 steals already. Denard Span has 8. Hell, Detroit’s Josh Anderson has 6 and he doesn’t even play every day. You can find help all over the place and it won’t cost you an arm or a leg to do so.
Go to your league standings and take a look at where you are in the category. See just how far you can move up without trading away all of your blue chip players. If you can move up 5 points, isn’t it worth it? Personally, if you can move up 3, I’d think it is. And if you’re up top in the category, well then start trading. You’re not looking for the be-all, end-all of deals here. Just find another category you can make up some ground in, see who’s dominating there, check their movement capabilities in the SB department and work something out. It’s as simple as that.
No one says that every deal needs to be a blockbuster. With the abundance of stolen bases, you can make a few tweaks here and there and put you right on track for a top finish.
Good luck, and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
**It should be noted that in addition to the roster you just saw, through free agency, I have also picked up Dexter Fowler and Kosuke Fukudome. I was leading in SBs at the time, but figured with Fowler, I could trade away more steals for a little power and some saves.
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I followed your lead this year and also drafted Michael Bourn. So far he’s looking pretty good. What can I realistically expect to get in return for him in a deal?
I’ve been wondering that exact same thing. I’ve really been enjoying the batting BA/OBP increases this year, but I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you that I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop. While Bourn has always been a basestealer, he’s never been a consistent .300 hitter. I feel like a big slump is looming.
I’d say I’d be shooting for an everyday OF with some pop in his bat, maybe like a Torii Hunter or even a Brad Hawpe. Or maybe like a decent 2nd or 3rd tier pitcher if you can — his line last night hurt, but I’m thinking someone of a John Danks caliber; real talent, great upside, but not anyone’s ace by any means.
And when they haggle with you and complain about the potential batting average issue, remind them that 40+ stolen bases are still coming their way. Not many players will produce that and come this cheap.
Very wise of you to LET your wife do the driving!
I gotta disagree here a little bit. If you CAN get tori hunter or brad hawpe, then obviously you should do it. it will depend on how astute your league members are. however, asking for a 4-5 tool guy like hunter for a guy that we all suspect (even those guys who need sbs) will decline shortly seems to be a lot.
i think you are better off setting your sights a little lower. if you want to ask for a guy that is about hunter’s value, then i suggest looking for someone who is not off to as good a start as hunter or hawpe. maybe a pat burrell type. he has his own issues, and the batting average will not be as big a deal.
Yeah, maybe I’m shooting a little too high with Hunter. Hawpe, I think still may be within reach, especially if Bourn to continues to perform throughout the first half — a speed for power move. But in looking at Hunter’s numbers again, I’ll agree with Keith in that Hunter might be a bit of a reach there.
dont get me wrong. its better to aim too high than too low, so i agree with howard about trying to get a guy about that value. but if the guy you are trying to trade with is as smart and shrewd as you are, he may be frustrated by such an offer.