The Decline of Hanley Ramirez?

by Howard on May 19, 2010

     The hottest topic yesterday and still today seems to be the attitude of everyone’s favorite shortstop and fantasy stud, Hanley Ramirez.  For those that live under a rock, don’t watch ESPN, or don’t listen to sports talk radio, here’s the gist of it.  Ramirez fouled a ball off his ankle and hobbled around in obvious pain.  However, he stayed in the game and during the following inning, he failed to catch a bloop into shallow left and accidentally kicked it into the corner of the outfield.  But rather than hustle and chase after the ball, Hanley jogged after it while the Diamondbacks circled the bases and plated 3 runs.  You can catch the video of it right here, but that’s what everyone has their panties in a bunch over.  He was subsequently pulled from the game and everyone from major league announcers to writers to commentators have all chimed in, railing Ramirez for his lackluster effort.  He was benched the next day, but guess what…?  Right back in the lineup today.  I guess we can just say, “That’s just Hanley being Hanley,” right?

     But that’s not really why I’m writing this article today, because let’s face facts — Hanley Ramirez will not be benched for anything longer than a game because he’s far too valuable to the Marlins.  He is, in fact, their best player.  He’ll play regularly and continue to put up those awesome numbers that we’ve all grown to love.  Let’s face it…fantasy owners don’t give a crap if he half-asses it on the field and maybe sits out a game or two as punishment, so long as he produces at the plate for the duration of the season.  If no one cared about Manny Ramirez’ repeatedly disgusting play in the field, why would they care about Hanley’s?  So long as the work at the plate gets done.

     However, where I’m going with this is actually from the fantasy baseball perspective.  Is Hanley Ramirez really as valuable today as he once was, or has he declined enough to no longer warrant that #2 overall status?  Before I go on, let me just say that I don’t think there’s a bigger fan of Hanley than I.  I scouted him in the Red Sox farm system when he played in the Sally League and immediately jumped at the chance to draft him when he debuted at short for the Marlins in 2006.  I own him in my primary keeper league and haven’t let go, despite numerous trade offers.  He’s been an integral part of my championships and money finishes for the last 4 years and continues to do so here in 2010. 

     But part of being a writer and one that offers up sound fantasy baseball advice, it means that I have to stay objective.  I can love Hanley on my own time, but when I’m here, I have to tell it like it is.  And frankly, Hanley, as a fantasy player, has been in somewhat of a decline.  So that I can just refer back, here are his totals since his rookie year back in ’06.

  R HR RBI SB AVG
2006 119 17 59 51 .292
2007 125 29 81 51 .332
2008 125 33 67 35 .301
2009 101 24 106 27 .342
Current 2010 23 7 20 3 .293
On Pace 2010 95 29 83 12 .292

 

     It’s really hard to argue with some of those results, but as you can see, 2007 was, undoubtedly, his best year as a fantasy player.  His numbers for 2008 and 2009 were nice, especially for a shortstop, but it’s obvious that the move to the 3 hole in the lineup has diminished his value.  The stolen bases are not even close to what we used to get from him and as  a3 hole hitter, he’s looking to hit for more power which affects the batting average.  Suddenly we’ve gone from the .330-30-50 hopeful to the .300-20-20 guy.  It might seem like a silly thing to point out as anybody and everybody in fantasy would kill to have a 20-20 shortstop, but my question is again this:  Is Hanley the no-brainer #2 overall pick in fantasy baseball drafts?  I’m starting to say no.

     Are you better off picking up Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder or Miguel Cabrera and then waiting until the next round to grab Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins or Derek Jeter?  How about waiting even a few rounds more and picking up Elvis Andrus?  I know that shortstop is pretty thin, but we’re looking at this from a production standpoint and the possibility of grabbing A-Rod and then either Tulo, Rollins or Jeter is pretty damn good.  Maybe if Hanley was still swiping 50 bases or instead knocking 40+ HR, then I’d be inclined to throw this argument right out the window, but the fact remains, that while 20-20 is phenomenal from such a thin position, it can also be found in other areas like second or third, two positions that are relatively thin as well.

     I’m going to have to cut this a little short today due to time constarints, but I’d love to hear some of your feedback and then re-visit this discussion every so often and then again at the end of the year.

     Talk to me people!  What are your thoughts on Hanley as the #2 pick overall in fantasy?  Forget the half-assing it in the field.  I won’t even acknowledge it.  If Manny can just be Manny, then Hanley can just be Hanley.  We’re talking strictly fantasy baseball production.  Let’s hear it!

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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

1 JALO May 19, 2010 at 12:28 pm

i’ll be watching seeing as he’s on my team…..it’ll be interesting to see how hanley handles the situation..Manny never let it bother him, but with Hanley’s outburst yesterday, not just at the manager, but at the team, might become an ugly clubhouse fast….

regarding numbers, if you go by the numbers you’ve put including projected for the remainder of the year, then his HRs will be right around the avg for the last 4 yrs, his RBIs would be 20 below last years, but still better than the other years…His Batting avg will be subpar, but it seems to rollercoaster from year to year, and not too far from his avgs in ’06 and ’08….Rs will be lowest ever as will SBs……

but are the RBI’s and Runs scored all his fault, or is the team around him also underperforming (coughlin had a heck of a rookie season, but what’s he done this year..who’s batting behind him now, Cantu, Uggla, Sanchez…maybe he’s not getting the pitches to hit and maybe there aren’t the runners in scoring position for him..

or maybe he’s doggin’ it…

he’s a heck of a talent though and although we’re a third of the way through the season, it’s still early…and who knows, maybe he and his teammates take this incident and it propels him to a great last 2/3rds of the season,

i can only hope, because as i said earlier, he is on my roster….

JALO

2 Wes May 19, 2010 at 1:48 pm

Similar situation here Howard. He has been my rock for the last few years in my primary league but I’m starting to waiver. Hitting in the 3 hole kills his stolen base potential and as you mentioned how valuable is a 20-20 SS… Certainly valuable but at the expense of what? I’m starting to crack.

I was recently offered a package of Andrew McCutchen, Kevin Youkilis and Tulo for Hanley and Adam Jones. In years past I’d immediately dismiss any trade offer on the spot but I was tempted to pull the trigger on this one because I love McCutchen’s potential going forward (Keeper League) with Tulo (Another Keeper) replacing Hanley and Youkilis upgrading my corner spot.

Again, I’m holding on to Hanley right now but I’m starting to wonder if it’s more my history with him and all the cash payouts he helped me garner or if I really believe he is the 1st or 2nd most valuable player. I think he might have be falling behind Utley and Braun.

3 Howard May 22, 2010 at 11:02 am

Should be an interesting thing to watch all year, JALO. The situation i sover, Hanley’s apologized, and Fredi Gonzalez couldn’t get him back into the lineup fast enough. The statistical dropoff though, is the real issue at hand. Regardless of who or what is to blame — the move to the 3 hole, surrounding hitters’ slumps, etc., the question at hand is whether or not Hanley is still worth the #2 overall pick in fantasy. He’ll still put up numbers that surpass most, if not all, but is he more valuable than Utley, Braun, A-Rod and the other first rounders that fly off the board after him?

Wes — I’ll tell you……if I had a deal like that on the table for Hanley, I think I would probably jump on it. Such a shame where we’ve gone with Hanley in just a few short seasons. I’ll be sure to fire you a note when I eventually make the deal so we can compare our bounties.

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