Yeah, yeah yeah. I know I sound like a broken record at times, but it’s just one of those things I feel like I can’t say enough. Fantasy baseball championships are won in the later rounds with quality value picks. Your studs are your studs and if you draft them in the first round, then you should be getting first round production. If you draft them in the third round and they give you first round production, well, that’s just a huge bonus. But it’s the guys you draft in the 20th round that produce like 5th rounders; those are the guys that lead you to the title. But I’m not just talking about the little rookie gems you might find. I know I’ve said in the past that I prefer good upside over some run of the mill veteran, but there are plenty of “no-name” guys out there that can be phenomenal late round pick ups. Today, I share with you some of the names that will likely end up on my roster, whether it’s near the end of my draft or an early waiver pick up. Just because the names aren’t sexy like a Jason Heyward or a Desmond Jennings, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take notice. Sometimes it’s the low-profile guys that help your team out the most throughout the season.
Undervalued Players to Consider for 2010
Ricky Nolasco, SP FLA — So while the sabermetric hounds are all over this guy, the casual fantasy owner may not be so in tune with his overall performance last year. A 5.04 ERA in 2009 will likely keep him off of most people’s radar, but you should look beyond that final number. After 9 absolutely atrocious starts, Nolasco was shipped back down to the minors for a little while to work things out and came back in June like a house of fire, going 3-1 in 5 starts with a 1.91 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. Sure, he regressed as the season went on, but he was still a solid starter and finished out his last three appearances in wonderful fashion. He had a 9.49 K/9 rate with a passable 2.14 BB/9 giving him a sound 4.43 K/BB ratio. But the real reason the sabermetric junkies are all over him is his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) which tells you what his ERA would/could have been had it not been for shoddy defense, errors, misplayed fly balls, etc. While Nolasco had a 5.06 ERA for the year, his FIP was 3.35 which usually indicates that he will certainly bring those numbers down. He’s definitely a hurler to target in the middle to later rounds and should be a solid addition to your rotation.
Brad Hawpe, OF COL — So I was listening to The Fantasy Buffet this morning, a Fanball radio show on BlogTalk Radio, and they were discussing the Rockies. I heard names like Iannetta, De La Rosa, Jimenez, Tulowitzki, but no mention of the Rockies most consistent outfielder for the last four years. Where’s the love for Brad? Sure, he’s not as high profile as Tulo and he’s not as young and exciting as Carlos Gonzalez, but seriously…20+ HR with 80+ RBI every year since 2006. How can you pass that up? He’s also a career .283 hitter. Come on people. Sometimes you have to stop reading the rookie hype and use your draft pick or bid dollars sensibly. Sure it’s great to look for the next best thing, but to pass up on Hawpe is silly. Consider him a quality outfielder who should be taken in th emiddle rounds of your draft.
Nick Johnson, 1B/DH NYY — With the exception of my good friend Steve, the whole world is down on Nick the Stick. And why shouldn’t they be? After 9 major league seasons, Johnson has only had 500 at bats in a year only once and only a single year of 20+ HR. Well, I think that’s about to change as the Yankees have brought him back for his second tour in the Bronx. While hitting in a favorable ballpark, surrounded by a ridiculous group of high quality hitters is incredibly enticing, I’m loving the fact that he will be the full time DH in 2010. The biggest knock on him is that he can’t stay healthy (hell, he had to sit out yesterday with a sore back after playing the field in the team’s first spring training game), but hopefully we can push that aside this year as he likely won’t see too much action with Mark Teixeira entrenched in the position. Johnson and his career .402 OBP will be a huge asset, not just to the Yanks, but to your team as well. I’m feeling a full year for him, hopefully 500 AB, and a HR total hovering around 18-20. He should be drafted as a corner infielder in the later rounds after you’ve already locked yourself in both a first and third baseman.
Gavin Floyd, SP CHW — If you’ve been reading SouthSideSwingers.com, you’ll know that I’ve been hyping Floyd as a breakout candidate this season. Again, a 4.06 ERA doesn’t get you much in the way of praise come draft day, but if you look a little deeper, you’ll see that the impending breakout should be much much sooner than later. This is really his third full year as a starter as he was used in and out of the pen in Philly for the most part, and each season sice 2006, he has lowered his WHIP down to a very respectable 1.23 last year. A nice solid 7.60 K/9 will help, although he could stand to drop the walks a little bit. And for you hardcore stats fiends, yes, his FIP (3.77) was pleasantly lower than his real ERA.
Franklin Gutierrez, OF SEA — Another un-sexy name playing for an un-sexy team in a most incredibly un-sexy ballpark. But in his first full season last year, Gutierrez put up some fantastic numbers that you would have been unbelievably happy with had you plucked him in the 22nd round last year. Now a year of 18 HR with 16 SB and a .283 average (not to mention a .333 BABIP) will certainly give him a higher profile than he had last year, but this guy just doesn’t get enough press to bring him into the foreground. And that’s perfect for you. His 3 to 1 K/BB ratio could stand some improvement, but hopefully that will come as he gets more playing time. I would feel very confident in drafting this guy in the later rounds as he is entering his prime (age 27) and could take his game to the next level in 2010.
Jonathan Sanchez, SP SF — OK, so the no-hitter last year probably gave him a little more press than we in the fantasy baseball sleeper business would like, but Sanchez still remains a no-name commodity in most baseball fantasy circles. The Giants left has made solid improvements across the board in every category except walks. Still giving out too many free passes. But on the other side, a 9.75 K/9 ratio is tough to ignore. As is a relatively sound .290 BABIP. There’s still plenty of work for him to do in the control department, but the Giants finally seem happy with his growth and are ready to move forward with him. AT&T Park is a great place for a pitcher to call home and the weak NL West is advantageous as well. It also happens to be his third full season, so let’s hope he can trim down that hideous 4.84 BB/9 and take the next step forward.
Honorable Mentions: Adam LaRoche, 1B ARI; Mark Teahen, 3B CHW; Adam Kennedy, 2B WAS; Paul Maholm, SP PIT; Brett Anderson, SP OAK (although the fantasy baseball magazines have him a bit too high in the player rankings); Jorge De La Rosa, SP COL
Loading ...