I don’t know, people. Maybe it’s my undying loyalty to the Yankees and my utter detestment for all things Red Sox, but I’m having some serious difficulty with understanding the use of a second round or, in some crazy instances I’ve seen, a first round pick on Jacoby Ellsbury. I know that he’s stolen 120 bases and scored 192 runs in the last 2 seasons. You don’t have to quote me the numbers. But with today’s abundance of speed throughout the major leagues, is it really necessary to grab him that high? Don’t you think you’re better served bulking up on power and top tier starting pitching before worrying about your stolen bases? I do. Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not knocking Ellsbury per se; I’m just saying that taking him as high as he’s going in fantasy baseball drafts these days is just a waste.
If you take a look at the ADP rankings I linked you to a few days ago, you’ll notice that, depending on the size of the league, Ellsbury has been taken off the board, on average, in the second round; start of the third round in 10 team leagues or smaller. Meanwhile, burners like Michael Bourn and Juan Pierre, who will give you virtually the same production are being left until atleast the 10th round and beyond. You’ve also got young upstarts like Julio Borbon and Andrew McCutchen going much later in drafts. Sure, they don’t have a proven track record, but big deal. Ellsbury only has 2 years of doing it himself. These guys are all hitting leadoff, they’re all getting the green light from their managers, and they’re all going to hit for a solid average; most around .300. But one thing they’re all going to do better than Ellsbury — allow you to bulk up the rest of your roster nice and early first.
Take a look at some of the names out there that are showing up after Ellsbury on the ADP rankings — Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Upton, Grady Sizemore, Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez just to name a few. You’re telling me that you’d rather have the production of Ellsbury and Wandy Rodriguez over the combination of Halladay and Bourn? Or what about Ellsbury and Chris Davis vs Gonzalez and Pierre? Come on people. It’s a no brainer to me. Ellsbury, Bourn and Pierre will likely have similar speed totals, runs scored, and batting average. None of them hit for any real power. Maybe Ellsbury swipes a few more bags and maybe Bourn only hits .285 again, but look at the production you’re giving up in the early stages of your draft. Is it really worth it? Is the difference in production you get going from Ellsbury to Bourn or Pierre really the same as it is going from Halladay to Rodriguez or A-Gonz to Davis? No way.
And don’t go quoting Rays manager Joe Maddon who say that he could see Ellsbury hitting close to 20 home runs this year. Maybe he needs to get those big ol’ specs cleaned. At no point in his entire major or minor league career has Ellsbury ever broken the double digit HR barrier, and there’s nothing to indicate that he suddenly will. He’s a 3 category player and that’s about it. I don’t even see him matching last season’s RBI total either. 60 RBI for a leadoff hitter is more of an aberration than it is the norm. Figure more like 45 to 50 for the year — more in line guys like Chone Figgins and Ichiro, two of the premier leadoff guys in the game.
Bottom line — you can do yourself a favor by passing on Ellsbury for someone else and grabbing your speed late. And if you’re still not happy with your low end burner, then remember that the stolen base totals in MLB have continued to climb over the last 2 seasons and will continue to do so in the future. There were 46 players to swipe 20 or more bags last year. Certainly a number of them will be able to be had late in the draft as well. Save your speed picks for later. You won’t regret it as you dominate in power or pitching and find yourself at the top of the standings at the end of the year.
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