Things are always looking up for Ryan Howard in the second half
The second half of the fantasy baseball season is currently underway and has certainly started off with a bang. You’ve got mashers like Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder getting off to fantastic starts to open the second half of the season, while second half sleepers such as Bengie Molina, Yunel Escobar, Gordon Beckham and even Aramis Ramirez are rewarding those that either bought low or just exhibited some patience with their players. On the pitching front, mainstays such as Cliff Lee, Chris Carpenter, and Tim Lincecum are further proving their worth while relatively unknown commodities such as Paul Maholm, Vin Mazarro, and Jason Vargas are emerging from the shadows. On the flip side, you’ve got Justin Morneau out with a concussion, a gimpy Scott Rolen, an ice cold Brennan Boesch, Andy Pettitte grabbing his groin, and both Roy Halladay and Ubaldo Jimenez getting thumped. It’s time for more hot and cold starts, studying stat splits, and with the impending July 31st MLB non-waiver trade deadline, plenty of speculation regarding player movement. It’s the stuff upon which fantasy baseball dreams are built! Here are my thoughts on what’s been happening since we came back from the break and what could be in store for us down the road.
Let’s tie that intro right in to my first thought, and that’s Ryan Howard and stat splits. If you’ve been around fantasy baseball a while or you’ve checked out his splits, you’ll know that his .400-4-9 batting line to open the second half is nothing new. Howard is, traditionally, a much better hitter in the second half. In some years, there wasn’t any massive improvement in the power department, but what is important to note is that he usually hits roughly 30 to 40 points higher in the second half. Now, of course, there are no guarantees, but can you imagine tacking that on to his .294 first half? With the recent boost of power and the projected boost in average, you could be looking at an MVP season, in reality and fantasy.
And speaking of splits, don’t be surprised to see a 6-6, 3.60 line for Ubaldo Jimenez’ second half split this season. I don’t want to take anything away from his first half. 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA is amazing. It was, by far and away, one of the best performances I’ve seen in recent years. But let’s be realistic. What’s he going to do? Repeat those numbers in the second half? No way. Just take a quick look at the numbers of wins leaders in the past. The most wins by a pitcher, in this decade, is 24 by Randy Johnson in 2002. We’ve had guys win 21 and 22 games a few times, but nothing higher than the Big Unit’s total. Are we suddenly to believe that Jimenez will crush those numbers. I doubt it. I’d be shopping him, if I owned him.
So all you fools who stashed away Mike Gonzalez are finally going to be reaping the benefits, huh? Pffffffft! Yeah, he’s coming back, but how valuable is he really going to be? He had one year back in 2006 where he saved 24 games for the Pirates and we’re supposed to believe he’s going to take back the closer’s job in Baltimore now? Come on. If Bobby Cox knew well enough to keep him as a situational lefty, then I have to believe that’s worth something in the minds of other managers. Alfredo Simon has, by no means, been the perfect closer, but he’s been more than solid for the Orioles’ needs. Sure, Gonzalez will get some saves chances here and there, but don’t be so quick to write him in as the full time closer just yet.
If I have to look at this picture one more time…
I’m gonna lose it. It’s no fun to look at Andy Pettitte like this as a Yankees fan and certainly even less humorous when you’ve just traded for him in your fantasy league and then had to bench him because he’s out for 5 weeks and the guy you put in for him was Mike Pelfrey and he got the snot beaten out of him by the stupid Diamondbacks!
OK, I’m back…..
We could be welcoming back Detroit’s Scott Sizemore to the bigs pretty soon in the wake of the Brandon Inge injury (15 day DL with a broken hand). Sizemore was on plenty of people’s radar during Spring Training when the Tigers named him their starting second baseman. But with the slow start and the return of Carlos Guillen, he was shipped back down to the minors. For Triple-A Toledo, he’s hitting .331 with 5 HR and 18 RBI in 163 at bats, and with the Tigers in need, he could return. Jim Leyland said that he will not move Guillen over to third, which makes it even more notable that Sizemore is starting at the hot corner tonight for the Mud Hens. If Sizemore does get the call and adds anothe rposition to his eligibility, then he could have some decent value down the road.
So long Sweet Lou. I’m sure there are a number of fantasy owners thankful for Lou Piniella’s impending retirement — very abusive on pitchers — but I think if he’s really gone from the game, he will be sorely missed. Expect a year off, maybe a special guest announcer gig, but in the end I think he grabs a job with a team as a consultant and settles in there. 18 years as a player, 22 as a manager? You can’t be in baseball for that long and just take it out of your life.
Make sure you take the time to read up on your players’ health these days. With this guy’s finger, that guy’s back and the other guy’s hamstring, it’s enough to drive you nuts in leagues with daily roster moves. You’ve got Carlos Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips, Andrew McCutchen, Scott Rolen, and Carlos Quentin, among others, that are getting some games off with their minor bumps and bruises.
Speaking of bumps and bruises, it looks like Brian Roberts’ activation from the DL is being put off for another week. I could be wrong but at this stage of the game, I’d almost give up on him. Maybe you can get some decent trade value out of someone in your league, but with a back this problematic, who’s to say he’s not back on the DL in another two or three weeks?
Keep an eye on Giants rookie lefty, Madison Bumgarner. I listed him as a fantasy baseball second half sleeper, and he’s looking pretty good with his 3-2 record and 2.41 ERA. White Sox’ Daniel Hudson’s another one.
The dream season continues for Rafael Furcal as he’s hitting .400 in the second half now and just knocked out his 7th HR of the season. If he can build on that .333-6-35-14 first half, he’s going to continue to be dangerous. It looks like the back troubles are a thing of the past…or are they?
Looks like I was wrong about the time off for Shin Soo Choo as he is expected to be activated from the DL this Friday. I thought, maybe, with his need to stay healthy for the Novemeber Asian Games and the Tribe’s lack of playoff possibilities that he would take his time coming back, but it looks like he’s ready to start it up again. You should definitely get ready to get him back in your lineup.
And the bonehead move in rehab award goes to…..David Freese! The Cardinals third basemen was on his way to having a fantastic season when a bone bruise on his ankle forced him out back in late June. Well, as he was making his way back, he drops a free weight and breaks his big toe. This should probably keep him out a little longer, so you might have to just stick with your current replacement for a little longer.
Finally, Yunel Escobar has stopped making me look like an idiot. I praised this guy all spring long and tabbed him as a potential breakout for 2010. Well, that first half in Atlanta punched his ticket to fantasy sh*tsville and bought him a plane ticket to Canada. Who knew that’s all it would have taken? He’s hitting .471 with 2 HR and 7 RBI since being dealt to the Blue Jays and looks like he could be headed for a strong second half.
With Chris Davis’ 4 for 29 and just 1 RBI since his call up, something tells me that the Rangers are going to be in the market for a first baseman very soon. Derrek Lee anyone? We’ll see, but that brings me to our next segment…
Cruising Rumorsville
Word on the street is that the Angels are tired of looking within and are now conducting their search for a third baseman outside the organization. Hello Alberto Callaspo! Sounds liek the Halos are inquiring about the versatile Royals second baseman with the hopes of using him as a little more than just a stopgap at third. I definitely like Callaspo’s value in Los Angeles than I do in Kansas City.
The Dodgers, in their perpetual hunt for second half arms, are looking at Pirate’s starter Paul Maholm. As a lefty in Chavez Ravine, I would feel very confident in starting Maholm. I was pretty high on him based on my study of FIP, and while he hasn’t been the gem I would have hoped for, 6 wins and a 4.03 ERA ain’t too bad. I think the change fo scenerey, especially to a competitive ball club, will do wonders for him. Fingers crossed.
Keep an eye on the White Sox as they try to return to their mashing ways this summer. Word has them giving the Nationals the full court press for Adam Dunn and while they likely won’t part with Gordon Beckham, I could see them offering up Dayan Viciedo, who might look good at first for the boys in D.C.
The Padres are in an unusual spot for them as they are definitely buyers on the trad emarket. Rumors had them tied to Jeremy Guthrie, but it looks like they’re actually more interested in Miguel Tejada. No word on the O’s asking price, but Tejada could be a nice fit for the Pods if they move Chase Headley back into the outfield.
That’s about all I have in me for today. But if you’re looking for more, don’t forgewt that I’ll be a guest on The New York Sports Exchange tonight at 9:15 pm (EDT) on 1240AM radio in New York. For a live stream of the broadcast, just click here: http://themirl.com/nyse.html
As always, for free fantasy baseball advice and questions, you can email me at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com. I’m always happy to help!
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
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{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
If Rolen hits the DL with Pettitte, should I release, trade, or stash them.
Check out http://www.thefantasybaseballguru.com leave comments ask qs and tell me what you think.
Well, Max…
It depends on the size of your league, I suppose. Given the way Rolen has played this season and Pettitte’s career track record, I’d stash both if I had the space to do so. Rolen probably won’t be out for more than the 15 days, so it would suck to see him get picked up by a rival and watch him continue this rennaissance season. A little tougher with Pettitte who should be out atleast until early Septemeber, but to get his arm on your roster for the final month could be big.
If you can’t afford the space, or if you play in an 8 team league, then it might be wise to cut Pettitte and try and land him later on when he returns.