Well, I said yesterday that I wouldn’t speculate until the results from Joe Nathan’s MRI and CT scan came in, but I felt I was still giving you sound advice when I said to avoid him in drafts this year. And right I was, as the results revealed that Nathan has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and should be forced into season ending Tommy John surgery. Brutal. Just brutal.
But before I continue with the answer to the question, “Who’s closing in Minnesota?”, let me just say quickly that it most certainly won’t be Nathan. If you protected him in a keeper league already, I’m sorry. Look elsewhere for help. There are plenty of fantasy baseball closers out there. If you’re a Twins fan, don’t kid yourself. He’s done. I don’t care what the reports are saying; that he’s visitng Dr. James Andrews and will be re-evaluated in 2 weeks, blah blah blah. Some form of surgery will be required and some highly extensive rehab will be needed. Cross him off your lists for 2010.
So now where do we go from here? Who’s it gonna be? With the competitive ball the Twins play, a ninth inning specialist is of the utmost necessity. The committe thing rarely works, so Ron Gardenhire is going to have to annoint someone and annoint them fast. The good news is that he’s got a deep bullpen from which to choose. The bad news is that I’m not a huge fan of any of them. Here’s a look at his options…
The Obvious
The man in the pen with the most closing experience is Jon Rauch who came over from Arizona last season with a whopping 26 career saves under his belt. Unfortunately, he’s got a career 3.79 ERA and a lifetime 1.23 WHIP, and his only big time closing experience came with the Nationals in 2008 when they had no one else for which to turn. Rauch notched 18 saves that season before being shipped off mid-season to the Diamondbacks. He may have had a nice little rennaisance with the Twins in the second half of last year (6-3, 2.67), but I still don’t trust him. He’s got a passable 6.3 K/9 rate, but he walks almost a batter an inning. Not something you want in a guy who is supposed to shut down the opposition at the end of a tight game.
My Pick
The first name I thought of when I heard that Nathan left the game over the weekend was Matt Guerrier. He may not have the nastiest stuff in the Twins pen, but he’s definitely been one of their most effective relievers over the last 3 seasons. In 2007, he threw 88 innings and finished the season 2-4 with a 2.35 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and 68 Ks. He took a step back in’08, but immediately regained his form last season as he went 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. His K/9 dropped, but so did his walks…dramatically. Only 16 free passes in just over 76 innings of work. He’s been a major part of the Twins bullpen over the last 5 seasons, and if anyone has Gardenhire’s trust, it woul dbe Guerrier. I think he’s the first one to get the opportunity.
The Possibility
Another name floating around is Jose Mijares, a hard throwing lefty that had a solid debut season with the Twins last year as he went 2-2 with a 2.35 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in just under 62 innings. However, Mijares did struggle a bit last year, particularly against right handed batters. They hit him at a .283 clip and posted a .791 OPS against him. He could be one of those guys that gets the opprtunity here or there, but my guess is that Gardenhire would rather leave him as the lefty specialist for the 7th or 8th innings.
The Dark Horse
Coming back from a round of Tommy John surgery himself, Pat Neshek looks like he could be a dark horse in the running here. Prior to his elbow issues, Neshek was one of the best guys in the Twins pen. Between 2006 and 2007, he posted 127 strikeouts in just over 107 innings while maintaining a sub-3.00 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Obviously this spring is about getting him back to form and keeping him healthy rather than rushing him into the job immediately, but if his arm is strong and his command is still there, then I don’t see why he wouldn’t be in the mix for saves if the other options falter.
So that’s what we’re looking at, folks. There’s also Jesse Crain in the pen and he was once tabbed a closer-of-the-future, but I don’t see him outperforming the Twins other options. If you’re drafting right now or if you already did and need a replacement, I’m going to put the order as such — Guerrier, Rauch, Mijares and then Neshek. However, if Neshek has an outstanding spring and seems healthy, then I might even put him ahead of Rauch.
Good luck to you all. Let the closing nightmares begin!
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